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posted on 06 February 2015

30 January 2015: ECRI's WLI Improves But Still in Negative Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index improved again but has remained in negative territory for 16 weeks. According to ECRI, this index is forecasting slower economic growth in 1H2015. This week ECRI released their inflation guage and lagging index which is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Falls



The U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 130.8 from 131.6. The growth rated ticked up to -4.0% from -4.3%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The December update (reported in January) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last six months:

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Falls

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 102.5 from a revised December 104.0 reading, first reported as 104.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"Having peaked in the summer, the USFIG has been falling faster lately," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to fade."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The December's economy's rate of growth (released in February) marginally declined but shows moderate growth.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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