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posted on 30 January 2015

January 2015 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Bumps Up Slightly

Econintersect: The Chicago Business Barometer stabilised in January following two consecutive monthly declines. The authors of this index believe the growth this year is encouraging.

The market expected the index between 54.5 and 58.8 (consensus 57.7) versus the actual at 59.4. A number below 50 indicates contraction. From the authors of the index:

This was a solid start to 2015 with current growth in orders and output consistent with ongoing strength in US GDP. Encouragingly, the January survey showed that strength we saw in the second half of 2014 is having a significantly positive impact on employment.

The Chicago Business Barometer stabilised in January following two consecutive monthly declines, with continued firm growth in orders and output driving employment to a 14-month high. The Chicago Business Barometer edged up 0.6 point to 59.4 in January from a revised 58.8 in December, following the publication of new seasonal factors earlier in the month.

Business activity was led by a modest advance in New Orders while Order Backlogs was the second largest contributor to the Barometer's faster expansion. Production also increased between December and January following two consecutive falls. The survey has signposted a significant improvement in the jobs market over the past year.

The start of 2015 saw the Employment Indicator rise sharply on the month to the highest since November 2013 and well above the levels seen in January 2014.

The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) - there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.

source and read the full report: Chicago PMI

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