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posted on 23 January 2015

16 January 2015: ECRI's WLI Unchanged - Still in Negative Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index was unchanged but has remained in negative territory for 14 weeks. This index is forecasting a slight business cycle contraction in 1H2015. Obviously the markets do not share ECRI's view the business cycle is taking a downturn. ECRI also released their coincident index and is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Growth Declines

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues in negative territory - statistically forecasting a slight business cycle contraction in the next six months.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading growth index was unchanged at -5.0% (originally published as -5.0%) - and the level of the index declined from 130.9 (originally released last week as 131.1) to 130.5.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The December update (reported in January) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last six months:

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Down

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 104.1 from a revised November 104.5 reading, first reported as 104.7, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG has eased from its summer high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures have softened somewhat, but remain above earlier cycle lows."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November's economy's rate of growth (released in December) marginally declined but shows moderate growth.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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