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posted on 27 November 2017

November 2017 Texas Manufacturing Survey Declines But Remains Well Into Growth Territory

Of the four Federal Reserve districts which have released their November manufacturing surveys - all are in expansion. A complete summary follows.

Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

This survey remains well into positive territory with new orders declining and unfilled orders improving.

Expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday was 20.0 to 28.0 (consensus 24.5), and the reported value was 15.1. From the Dallas Fed:

Texas factory activity continued to expand in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 10 points from its October reading but remained elevated at 15.1.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also pointed to November growth that was slightly slower than in October but still well above average. The new orders index moved down five points to 20.0, and the capacity utilization and shipments indexes similarly fell to 17.3 and 16.7, respectively. Meanwhile, the growth rate of orders index signaled a stronger pickup in demand, climbing six points to 18.1. This represents the index's highest reading since 2010.

Perceptions of broader business conditions remained highly positive in November. The general business activity index came in at 19.4, down eight points from October. The company outlook index posted its 15th consecutive positive reading but dipped to 18.5.

Labor market measures suggested slower employment growth and longer workweeks this month. The employment index fell 10 points from October to 6.3, reflecting a more normal index level after several months of elevated readings. Nineteen percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 13 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index edged down but remained positive at 11.5, indicating a continued lengthening of workweeks.

Upward pressure on prices and wages continued in November. The raw materials prices and finished goods prices indexes held steady at 32.2 and 15.1, respectively. The wages and benefits index moved down eight points to 14.2, slightly below the average reading for that index.

Expectations regarding future business conditions remained highly optimistic. The index of future general business activity held steady at 39.0, while the index of future company outlook edged up to 40.8. Other indexes for future manufacturing activity showed mixed movements but remained solidly in positive territory.

Source: Dallas Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

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