econintersect.com
       
  
Global Economic Intersection


Prometheus




Stock Market Secular Bear Remains in Control

The secular bear market in stocks that began in 2000 has now been in progress for 15 years. Our Secular Trend Score (STS), which analyzes a large basket of fundamental, internal, technical and sentiment data, issued a long-term sell signal in December 1999. At the time, our computer models predicted that stocks would enter a secular bear market that would last from 10 to 20 years. Although the S&P 500 index has moved up to new all-time highs as a result of targeted manipulation by the Federal Reserve, the secular downtrend remains several years away from its terminal phase as indicated by the fact that the STS remains deep in negative territory.

The cyclical bull market from 2009 is long overdue for termination and, given the historic nature of the current bubble in the stock market, the forthcoming cyclical bear market will be violent and severe, likely resulting in losses of 40% to 60% by the time the next cyclical low forms. Our Cyclical Trend Score (CTS), which identifies highly likely cyclical trend inflection points, is trending lower in negative territory, and a move into sell territory below the -65 level during the next few weeks would indicate the potential development of a cyclical trend sell signal.

Market behavior suggests that the bubble is weakening and becoming susceptible to a meaningful breakdown. For example, market internals such as breadth and volume continue to negatively diverging from price behavior, with that divergence accelerating during the past two months.

These breakdowns in market internals tell us that distribution is taking place and that market participants are becoming more risk averse, suggesting that uptrend momentum is diminishing. As always, it is important to remember that a long-term top is a process, not an event. Our intermediate-term computer model indicates that the next test of cyclical bull market health will likely occur sometime during the next four to six weeks, so it will be important to continue monitoring market behavior closely.

We will identify the key developments as they occur in our daily market forecasts and signal notifications available to paid subscribers. Try our service for free. If you are a paid subscriber, login to read the full version of this commentary.






Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.












Econintersect Special Page



search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF








.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government






Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com







The Forex Quotes are Powered by Investing.com - The Leading Financial Portal.

















Commodities are powered by Investing.com















 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
Econintersect Features
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Live Market Commentary
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
Live Market Conditions
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2015 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved