FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.

posted on 10 January 2018

Spinning The Employment Number

from Jeff Miller, A Dash of Insight

Investors need an inoculation against the “spinning virus," especially when it comes to employment data. The sources and reports are so complicated that it is easy to find something to prove your point - whatever that might be!


Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.

The table can help you avoid some of the most significant errors. Many people confuse, for example, the time of the data release with the time of events. Here are two examples you will see:

  1. The payroll and household survey results cannot be an outcome of the tax cut legislation. The surveys were done before the legislation was passed.
  2. The initial claims - up to 250K last week - was a report from after the payroll and household survey periods. Whatever the implications of the increase in claims, we will not see it until next month.

You will also see claims of a “big miss" or “big gain" from changes that are well within the sampling error, without even considering the non-sampling error. A deviation of 50 - 70K, either way, means little.

Pundits know this, give lip service, and then proceed as if there is a high level of accuracy.

Many will opine about the seasonal adjustments. Especially those who no experience or training on this subject. It is often easy to make something look wrong based upon a single month.

And finally, the important context is that the jobs report is based upon a net change. Despite the hype, place this report in the context of other economic data. The actual number of jobs created (and lost) in a month is over 7 million. We are only analyzing the froth at the top of the waves.

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Click here for Historical Opinion Post Listing

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

Econintersect Opinion

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF

The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.

Keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government



Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2018 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved