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posted on 29 July 2017

Two Different Valuations For China's Currency

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How Fairly Valued is China’s Currency? Big Mac and Mini Mac Square Off Again.

The “law of one price" holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. But how well does it actually hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s famous Big Mac Index uses the price of McDonald’s Big Macs around the world, expressed in a common currency (U.S. dollars), to measure the extent to which various currencies are over- or under-valued. The Big Mac is a global product, identical across borders, which makes it an interesting one for this purpose.

big.mac


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Big Macs travel badly, however. Flows of burgers across borders won’t align their prices. So in 2013 we created our own Mini Mac Index that compares the price of iPad minis across countries. Minis are a global product that, unlike Big Macs, can move quickly and cheaply around the world. As explained in the video below, this helps equalize prices.

As shown in the graphicbelow, the Mini Mac Index suggests that the law of one price holds far better than does the Big Mac Index. Both indexes currently show the dollar overvalued against most currencies. But the Big Mac Index puts the average overvaluation at 25% - a Whopper. Our Mini Mac Index puts it at only 11% - Small Fries.

mac.indexes

Those who believe the #FakeNews that China is manipulating its currency downward will no doubt take heart from the Big Mac Index, which puts the RMB’s undervaluation at a super-sized 45%. But that won’t cut the mustard with us. The Mini Mac Index puts the undervaluation at a mere 3.7% - not terrific news for currency warriors.

Adapted from Council on Foreign Relations Blog, article appearing 19 July 2017.

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