econintersect.com
 FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email. Name: Email:

posted on 23 July 2016

# Trump Doesn't Need To Win The Popular Vote To Be President

Written by

We recently pointed out that if only a total of 278,000 votes for Obama had switched to Romney in 2012 that Romney would have won. If the switches had been made in just 3 states, Florida (38,000 out of 8.474 million or 0.45%), Ohio (84,000 out of 5.581 million or 1.5%) and Pennsylvania (156,000 out of 5.754 million or 2.7%), Obama would have been a 1-term president.

Romney would now be our president even though he would have lost the popular vote by more than 4.1 million.

We have worked from the 2012 elction results to create a hypothetical electoral college win for Donald Trump with an equally hypothetical popular vote win for Hillary Clinton. First, here are the final totals for the 2012 election:

Next let's make some simplifying assumptions:

• The total vote in 2016 will be the same. (Many expect it to be higher.)

• Third party candidates get the same number of votes in 2016. (There are arguments that 3rd parties may get more votes.)

• The votes for 40 of the states will be the same in 2016 as in 2012.

• For the remaining 10 states, we suggest hypothetical results, below.

The states in this hypothetical example all are going for the same party as in 2012 with the exception of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, which went to Obama, this year going to Trump. That would give Trump an electoral vote victory of 273-265.

The 10 states that are the only ones with an assumed change in the vote distributions are given in the table below. We show the 2012 votes, the hypothetical 2016 votes and the gains for either Clinton or Trump as they would occur.

*Assumed, hypothetically.

So this hypothetical vote has Clinton increasing the popular vote margin by more than 2 million compared to Obama 2012 (more than a 6 million plurality in the popular vote) but Donald Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20 2017.

In the preceding post on presidential elections, we pointed out the futility of national opinion polls unless the popular vote difference is more than 4%. This hypothetical has a popular vote difference will above 4% (actually 4.8%). We doubt that many would guess from the polls that Trump would be the winner.

It is also true that Hillary Clinton doesn't need to win the popular vote to be president. See Clinton Doesn't Need To Win The Popular Vote To Be Elected

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

## Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

Econintersect Opinion

 The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.

Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
 Was Marx Right? Angst in America, Part 5: The Crisis We Can’t Muddle Through
News Blog
 Early Headlines: Trump Blames Dems And Constitution For Chaos, US Child Poverty, Winter Leaves North New England, Labour Gains In Polls, And More Grading President Trump's First 100 Days: B! The Most Important Gaming Platforms 2017 Earnings And Economic Reports: Week Starting 01 May 2017 Ancestors Of Flores 'Hobbits' May Have Been Pioneers Of First 'Human' Migration Out Of Africa The Global Top 10 Android Apps What We Read Today 29 April 2017 'Horrifying' Witnesses Describe Latest String Of Prisoner Executions In Arkansas Apr 25, 2017 08:01 GMT What Trump's Next 100 Days Will Look Like How Did Small Businesses Do In 2016? Costs Of Building A 355-Ship US Navy The Roots Of Rising Treasury Yields How Will College Grads Do In 2017 In Their Job Search
Investing Blog
 Technical Thoughts: Finding Contrarian Ideas More People Have Access To Netflix Than A DVR
Opinion Blog
 Investors: Super Size Me How Our Addiction To Safety Could Lead To Another Financial Crisis
Precious Metals Blog
 A New Age For Gold
Live Markets
 28Apr2017 Market Close: Wall Street Closed Mostly Down On News The U.S. Economy Grew At Its Weakest Pace In Three Years, WTI Crude Settles In The Low 49 Handle
Amazon Books & More

 .... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet Asia / Pacific Europe Middle East / Africa Americas USA Government

 navigate econintersect.com

### Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government

### RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Digg