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posted on 30 December 2015


by Geoffrey Chia

Appeared originally at Doomstead Diner 21 December 2015

Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

We are on track for 8 to 10 degrees Celsius GATR - Paris COP 21 was a fraud

This is the most comprehensive and scientifically honest discourse about our climate future that I have encountered so far:

Dr David Wasdell is an impeccable source. The evidence and reasoning he employed, by summarising data and peer-reviewed research from many other scientists, demonstrated beyond any shadow of a doubt that the massively underestimated conclusions of the IPCC were politically watered down deceit. It enabled false (but more politically palatable) assumptions to be adopted by the COP participants and meaningless goals to be pursued (which are not binding anyway). All in all, those international toings-and-froings have been a complete joke. James Hansen called the COP21 shenanigans "half assed and half baked"

There was one benefit of COP21 however. The delusion that we still have a carbon "budget" to burn and that we still have some wiggle room to avoid disaster, does justify ongoing COP junkets for the COP junkies for next few years, before the airline industry collapses from financial Armageddon / Hi-NES depletion. May as well keep partying on the deck of the Titanic, while encouraging the crew to use chewing gum and spit to patch the gaping hole in the hull.

Dr Wasdell mentioned that an 8 degree Celsius global average temperature rise is a conservative estimate and 10 degrees GATR may be more likely.

We could face a global wipeout on the scale of the Permian-Triassic extinction, in which about 70% of land species and 95% of marine species perished. It is important to understand why the die-off was (and will be) worse in the oceans. Readers will be aware that many phytoplankton species require calcareous shells and ocean acidification can wipe them out. They form a large part of the base of the oceanic food pyramid. Less commonly appreciated is the physical fact that cold water contains more dissolved gases than warm water. This is why the cold waters near the poles, being oxygen rich, can support abundant marine life (in areas where there are also abundant nutrients). Warming oceans will liberate previously dissolved CO2 into the atmosphere, another adverse feedback loop which will aggravate global warming. Warm oceans will also contain very little dissolved oxygen, leading to the anoxic deaths of the majority of oceanic species. Anoxic oceans full of dead organic matter can promote the proliferation of bacteria which generate the poisonous gas hydrogen sulphide, the liberation of which can kill not only marine organisms, but many land organisms when released into the atmosphere.

If it was the intent of homo stupidus to wreak ecological devastation which will persist for millions of years, we could not have done a better job.

Ten degrees GATR will certainly lead to an ice free world, with a very high eventual likelihood of human extinction (but not as soon as 2030 though). Unlike Guy McPherson and his flunkies, I do not regard NTHE as an absolute certainty and have outlined a possible survival strategy for a small number of humans:

In that essay, I tried to promote Guy as the possible initiator of such a survival project, to offer him a way out of the hole he had dug for himself. However rather than rise to the challenge, he continued to reject any possibility of human survival, to remain a prophet of doom and the titular head of a nihilistic death cult.

If anything, knowing that we face unstoppable horrific climate chaos should concentrate our efforts to plan for a difficult future now, while we still have some time and resources. A number of geographic pockets around the world will still be able to support comfortable human life for some decades to come. Those who can should seize the opportunity.

My message to everyone? Try to live for as long as you can, aim for the best quality of life you can, and do so without trampling over others. Understanding our imminent demise should, if anything, enhance our appreciation for life and motivate us to derive whatever joy we can, while we can, perhaps by engaging in random acts of kindness now and then. Stay away from those who choose to wallow in the mire of abject hopelessness and misery. Avoid those who prefer to curse the darkness rather than light a candle.

Wishing everyone a happy pagan summer* solstice.

Geoffrey Chia, 21 December 2015

*winter in the Northern hemisphere

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