posted on 27 November 2015
by Daily Reckoning, Daily Reckoning
-- this post written by Chuck Butler
And now... today's Pfennig for your thoughts...
Good day, and a happy Friday to one and all!
What a strange feeling it must have been for the currencies yesterday, who from the looks of my screen late in the day, were all booking gains vs. the dollar. Yes, I had told you that was the way it was in the early morning, but not often in recent times have we seen the currencies hold their gains, and most cases add to them as the day went along. And the currency that had the most life to it was the euro.
Oh, I bet euro traders would love to revisit 2003, the year of the euro, when there was nothing that would stop the momentum the euro had built up each day. But like our youths, those days are gone. Those days of soda, and pretzels and beer. See - even I can pull a Nat King Cole out of my hat when I need to!
Speaking of the euro... It occurred to me yesterday that the European Central Bank (ECB) goes first in December. By that I mean the ECB will meet on December 3rd, while the Fed's meeting isn't until December 16. But - and that's a big but, and not the kind your wife asks you if her dress makes look too big! HA! - No, it's the kind you interject when it looks like you're going in one direction, so that you can go another. And this but, is that on December 3rd, the day the ECB meets.
Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, will be speaking to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, and then the next day, the Jobs Jamboree takes place. So, it's going to be a hectic couple of days, folks. I would suggest you batten down the hatches tightly, and don't take a peek outside until the dust settles.
As dear Pfennig Readers, you know where I stand or sit more appropriately, on the Fed's thinking that December will be the month for lift off of interest rates. I'm of the opinion that the Fed won't hike rates, but if they do - oh brother, if they do - they'll rue the day they did! For if an economy isn't ready for a rate hike, making a rate hike, is like shooting oneself in the foot! And I've proclaimed for over a year now that this economy is NOT ready for a rate hike, even with the gains in labor.
So, December 3rd and 4th. I sure wish I could just go hide under a rock those two days, because I for one don't want to see the ECB do any more stupid monetary pet tricks, and I sure don't want to hear Yellen talk about green shoots or whatever else she has up her sleeve, and I certainly don't care to see the BLS's jobs report.. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it's all a bunch of hogwash!
Well, I really didn't mean to go down this long road, and bore you to death. I really wanted to talk about the euro and what's in its future, and I did, but, with a lot of collateral attached. Sorry.
And besides, this morning, is a different story for the euro! While the currencies, for the most part, are still on the positive side of the ledger vs. the dollar in the overnight and morning sessions, the euro is not. And we can attribute this selling of the euro directly to ECB president, Mario Draghi, who, when speaking in Frankfurt, decided to throw the euro under the bus again, which recently has been a favorite game of his.
Draghi, had this to say:
Alright, that might sound like a bunch of gobbledygook, but it's Central Bank parlance for, 'I'm here to grease the tracks for more stimulus, because inflation hasn't responded like we thought it would by now.' Now wouldn't it have been easier for everyone if he just said that way? Everyone wants to channel their inner Greenspeak. Remember that? Big Al Greenspan would talk and everyone would be scratching their heads, and the markets began calling his talks, "Greenspeak". And now all these Central Bankers think that if it was good enough for "the maestro" then they should incorporate it.
I shake my head in disgust, but realize that maybe that we could see what happens with young kids, and it's just a "phase" and soon it will be over.
So, the currencies, for the most part, like the Aussie dollar (A$), Norwegian krone, Japanese yen, Mexican peso, S. African rand, Chinese renminbi, and gold and silver are still booking gains vs. the dollar this morning. The euro brings down the party on the rally tracks, but the important thing is that the gains or losses aren't that huge and we have a handful of currencies that are flat this morning too.
I really don't think we'll see much more movement today, I mean we're going to be heading into the holiday season next week, and I heard that this year travelers for Thanksgiving will be a record number, so we could very well begin to see the traders start to close their books early today and head out the door to grandma's house. Over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house we go, the horse knows the way to carry the sleigh through the white and drifted snow!
So, as I said above, I was doing a lot of reading and research yesterday, and came across this article on the Bloomberg. Here's the title: "Goldman Says the Years of Emerging Markets Doldrums Are Over" I didn't have to read the article, although I did, but just reading the title told me all I needed to know.
The writer of the article had me at "Goldman Says". Because, like I told you earlier this week, Goldman is Lola. And what Lola wants, Lola gets. When Goldman talks, the markets listen. It was interesting that they singled out a couple Emerging Markets that they feel are better positioned to gain. Russia, India, and Poland Goldman says are among nations that have improved enough for their assets to rally.
Pretty interesting given that everyone else is talking about how the rate hike in the U.S. would hurt the Emerging Markets that have sold dollar denominated bonds.
I've told you about Jared Dillian before, the analyst/ trader that writes for Mauldin Economics (www.mauldineconomics.com) and how I enjoy reading his letters each week. Well, yesterday, he explained this dollar bond expense for the Emerging Markets, singling out the bonds that Zambia issued a couple of years ago. You should take a couple of minutes and check it out!
Well, yesterday's U.S. Data Cupboard had some interesting data prints. What was interesting about them is the "spin" that was put on the results. For instance, the Philly Fed Index finally climbed out of the negative hole to a 1.9 figure. And the pundits decided that this was cause to celebrate the strong economy! Are you kidding me? 1.9, that's a rounding error from remaining negative! And the Leading Index printed 0.1 better than expected, and you would have thought that the confetti was about to rain down on us!
It really must be a strong trend for the dollar, because this is what happens when an asset is in a good trend, bad or weak data, gets the "spin doctors" treatment, and I don't mean the Spin Doctors that sang Two Princes!
Gold is up a couple of bucks this morning. I have to point out that while gold hasn't really set the price gains on fire lately, it has slowed the negativity toward the shiny metal. I found this data and it just blow my mind away.
The Chinese withdrawals of physical gold from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), which I've given you the research by Koos Jansen, where he proves that the withdrawals from the SGE are pretty much equal to the accumulation of gold reserves by the Chinese government. Well, these withdrawals year to date have reached 2,259.3 Tonnes!
This is not just a one trick pony, or a one and done for the Chinese. In 2013, the previous record of 2,197 Tonnes were added, and in 2014 2,102 Tonnes were added. And that's just the last three years! Just remember this folks. When Humpty Dumpty comes crashing off the wall, and the countries of the world get together to determine what kind of monetary system we'll have, China will come to the table with the most gold.
And he who has the gold, makes the rules! And that's all I'm going to say about that!
This one is very interesting folks. Pull up a chair, if you haven't already. Here we go! I found this on Reuters, and you can read the whole article here, and here are the snippets:
Chuck again. I laugh, and laugh out loud! Hinder their ability to fight recessions? Really? Isn't what this is all about? The way they fought recessions, instead of just letting them play out, clean out the excesses and then begin to grow again? Whoosh! What was that? It was the real reason soaring right over the heads of those that oppose this.
That's it for today. It's time to get off this bus and drop me off at the corner where they are having a fantastico Friday! I hope you can get here too!
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