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posted on 28 September 2017

Gold Shakeout

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The Large Speculators’ aggregate near-record-high Net Long position was not reduced by much last week. Accordingly, prices declined today and probably will continue to decline until this gross imbalance will have been further reduced.


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The Large Speculators, together, had chased Gold higher and higher, until someone hiccuped and the market turned down. The Large Speculators are typically on the wrong side of a trade at major turning points in the Gold market; and this time was no exception. Now, they’re trapped in a price jam, with no good way out - having simply paid too much. Eventually, prices should turn somewhat higher; but Gold will not be going to the moon anytime soon, because it is in an upside correction - a countertrend move - whose remaining lifetime is just over the horizon although not yet in sight.

Gold has retraced more than 40% of its rise from last July, and I think there is a good possibility that it will retrace 50%, or more, of that advance before the current shakeout becomes complete. Eventually, all of the retracement will be “recaptured" (on the Up side), but meanwhile, this shakeout (which is a partial correction of a partial correction) may become deeper than we might usually expect. See how the Large Specs’ Commitments are out of kilter (red ;ine):

gold.kurtz.2017.sep.27. . . . . . . . . .

Added notes:

The stock markets continue to work their way to their Ultimate Tops. The Dow Transports has already peaked and turned down; Apple may have peaked and reversed on September 1. The NASDAQ Composite just missed posting a new High; the NASDAQ 100 wasn’t even close. The S&P 500 did post a new all-time High. The S&P 600 SmallCaps and the Russell 2000 are running wild in a manic investor craze to throw money at bullish ETF’s and mutual funds, which in turn are buying everything in sight, including junque. This will not end well. How many times in our lives have we been told that “You Have To Be In This Market!" Sorry, Mister, I don’t “have to" be in this market, or in any other.


There will be great profit opportunities in Currencies over the next year or so.

There will likewise be great opportunities in Trend Reversals in certain individual stocks. I’ll be writing about some of them shortly.

Special notice:

We will be offering, at a very modest price, two very nice Spiral-Bound Booklets - one of which contains drawings of all of the better-known Candlestick reversal patterns, and the other of which contains an explanation of the psycholocy which underlies each pattern. I’ve never seen anything like this elsewhere. The Booklets are nicely done. They lie flat so that you can make notes; and there’s lots of room for that.

I had produced these Booklets earlier, in conjunction with another program. They’re research materials that ought to be kept close at hand. If you have any interest at all in Candlesticks, I think you ought to have these two Booklets.

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