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posted on 29 March 2017

Following The Yellow Brick Road

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I'm not a gold bug. I've always thought the price was pretty heavily manipulated (long before it hit the headlines) and I guess I've avoided it on principle. Looking back at my forecasts over the past year or so, that was probably a mistake.


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Since our December 14, 2015 forecast, gold (GC) has gained about 19% -- not shabby. However, if one heeded the forecasts offered with each subsequent update, the net return would have been over 80%.

I've said many times, lately, that forecasting stocks has become a lot tougher than forecasting the various drivers of stock prices. In the case of gold, it is obviously affected by the value of the US dollar, which is an important component of USDJPY -- a key driver of equity algos.

Thus, GC -- like USDJPY, WTI and VIX -- is one of those things that's been relatively easy to forecast even though I've devoted only the occasional hour or two to its study. Before we touch on today's forecast, let's take a look at the past year's forecasts.

The numbers in the above chart correspond to the posts below.

  1. Dec 14, 2015 (GC: 1060): “If DX plunges further, as I expect it will, GC’s 4th bounce could be a doozy: 1150-1180 for starters, and 1286 after that." GC reached 1180 by Feb 8, topped out at 1287.80 on Mar 11.

  2. Mar 4, 2016 (GC: 1280): "I’d be very cautious in chasing GC at this point…acts like it’s reversing between here and 1286…take the gains…it could easily backtest the .618 at 1207.60." GC reached 1286 the next week, then reversed to backtest 1206.

  3. April 8, 2016 (GC: 1240): “If [gold] breaks above the purple midline [at 1270] then 1379-1380 is the next logical target…" Gold reached 1377.50 three months later.

  4. July 7, 2016 (GC: 1361): “Our target range from April 8 was 1379-1380. Yesterday’s 1377.50 was probably close enough. If it can’t make new highs today, the next stop is the neckline at 1307.." GC, which peaked at 1377.50 on Jul 6, dropped 5% to 1310 over the next 2 weeks.

  5. Aug 26, 2016 (GC: 1324): "…[there’s a] huge IH&S Pattern, the neckline of which is the former high at 1307ish. If TPTB are serious about discrediting GC anytime soon, it’ll mean getting it back below that [1307] support." GC tumbled to 1307, testing it three times before breaking down to 1243 on Oct 7.

  6. Oct 7, 2016 (GC: 1254): "…GC tagged its SMA200 and the bottom of a pretty good looking channel earlier - usually good for a bounce." GC bottomed the next day at 1243, bounced for a month, reaching 1339 on Nov 9.

  7. Nov 14, 2016 (GC: 1227): "…GC’s channel finally broke down two days ago and has potential to 1083 - a 12% drop from here. What better way to finish the year out?" GC plunged 103 (8.4%) over the next month.

  8. Dec 5, 2016 (GC: 1175): "If the .618 [1172.40] breaks down, then the next support isn’t until the red TL at 1130, followed by the .886 at 1083.50…" GC reached 1130 on Dec 15.

  9. Dec 15, 2016 (GC: 1129): GC is currently testing an important internal TL of support… a potentially important test…that could produce a bounce to the purple midline [at 1230] or the SMA200..." GC reached the SMA200 at 1264.60 on Feb 27.

After tagging its 200-day average in February, gold tumbled about 67, back below a key channel midline. But, it is right back in the swing of things, having nearly reached the SMA200 a second time just yesterday.

With all the discussion about what the Fed will or won’t do for the rest of the year, what’s next? We'll take a look at the upside and downside cases, and venture a guess that will, hopefully, keep our streak alive.

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