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26Jan2018 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street To Open Higher, GDP Comes In At 2.6 Percent In Fourth Quarter, Fresh Records Likely For DOW, S and P 500 As Dollar Drops

Written by Gary

The US equities main benchmark futures are pointing to moderately higher opening (SPY +0.4%) this morning. GDP did not grow at the 3.0% expected, WTI crude slips off the 66 handle.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 0.99% while London's FTSE 100 is up 0.46% and Germany's DAX is up 0.22%.

Looking at the last three columns (below), the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

World stocks party like its '99, dollar wilts again

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks were set for their longest weekly winning streak since 1999 on Friday, while the dollar buckled again as its weakest run since 2010 reverberated through almost every major asset class.

Honeywell raises 2018 profit forecast on tax benefit

(Reuters) - U.S. industrial conglomerate Honeywell International Inc reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Friday and raised its 2018 earnings forecast, citing lower tax rates.

Consumers, businesses seen buoying U.S. economic growth in fourth-quarter

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely maintained a brisk pace of growth in the fourth quarter, driven by an acceleration in consumer and business spending, which could set it on course to attain the Trump administration's 3 percent annual growth target this year.

U.S. wage growth, tax-bonuses spark shopping in retail stocks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. fund managers are betting that rising wages and the effects of the Republican-led corporate tax cut will prove a lifeline to middle-market retailers who have struggled to remain relevant in the age of Amazon.

Futures higher ahead of Trump's address, GDP data

(Reuters) - U.S. stock futures pointed to gains for Wall Street at open on Friday as a strong set of earnings this week buoyed sentiment, ahead of President Donald Trump's closing address at Davos.

Shell buying spree cranks up race for clean energy

LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell has spent over $400 million on a range of acquisitions in recent weeks, from solar power to electric car charging points, cranking up its drive to expand beyond its oil and gas business and reduce its carbon footprint.

Intel shares hit dotcom-era highs on robust data center demand

(Reuters) - Intel Inc's shares rose 6 percent on Friday to levels last seen during the dotcom boom 17 years ago, after strong results offered the clearest sign yet that its years-long effort to shift away from a slowing PC business was paying off.

Colgate-Palmolive quarterly sales miss estimates

(Reuters) - Colgate-Palmolive Co reported on Friday lower -than-expected sales on slower growth and a drop in profit on a charge related to the new U.S. tax law.

BAML expects muted growth at ad agencies

(Reuters) - Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) has struck a bearish tone on global ad agencies, seeing three years of muted growth at companies such as WPP , Publicis and Omnicom .

Will The 'Buck' Stop Here?

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

The dropping Dollar is trying to hang onto a potentially important line of support.

There has been very intriguing action of late in financial markets across the spectrum. And whether it's various equity markets, foreign or domestic, commodities, currencies or fixed income, much of the action can be tied to, if not attributed to, one thing - the falling U.S. Dollar. Obviously the Dollar can have a significant impact on other markets. That fact has many market participants asking "where will the falling buck stop?" Well, from a glance at the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), there is a technical argument for at least a halt in the pace of the Dollar's decline right here.

On our Twitter feed (@JLyonsFundMgmt), we do a feature every week called #TrendlineWednesday (sometimes, we even get around to it on Wednesdays). Today's edition included a trendline on the DXY that also served as our Chart Of The Day. That was due to the age of the trendline as well as its immediate relevancy to current prices.

The Down trendline in question originates at the DXY's top back in 1985 and connects the peak in 2001-2002. The trendline was eventually broken in early 2015. Since then, the former line of resistance has served as support whenever prices have dropped back down to test the top of the line. This was th ...

Watch Live: President Trump Addresses The World Economic Forum

In the final speech by a world leader at this year's Davos globalists-fest, President Trump will address The World Economic Forum (and we suspect millions around the world) this morning to remind them that 'making American great again' will help their global growth goals.

Having been character-assassinated yesterday by George Soros, we wonder if Trump will go off-script among the globalist crowd?

Mr Trump is the first sitting US President to attend a WEF since Bill Clinton in 2000.

The White House has just release excerpts of the speech:



TRUMP TO TELL DAVOS LEADERS AMERICA `COMPETITIVE ONCE AGAIN'

TRUMP TO TELL DAVOS U.S. WILL INSIST ON FAIR, RECIPROCAL TRADE

TRUMP TO TELL DAVOS U.S. GROWTH WILL HELP DRIVE GLOBAL GROWTH

TRUMP TO WARN DAVOS AGAINST IGNORING `VOICES OF THE FORGOTTEN'

Evercore ISI's Terry Haines writes in a note that President Donald Trump's speech is intended as both a message to world leaders about the changes the administration wants in global economic and trade systems, and as "a prominent kickoff" for Tuesday's State of the Union address.

It seems like a full-er-est house for this speech...

SRO at @realDonaldTrump speech at

Frontrunning: January 26



World stocks set for 10th straight week of gains, euro jumps (Reuters)

Trump Denies Reports He Tried to Fire Mueller (WSJ)

Trump confronts Davos on trade abuses, talks up dollar (Reuters)

Dollar Resumes Slide After Rallying on President's Comments (WSJ)

China to name Harvard-trained Liu He as vice premier overseeing economy (Reuters)

Ranking Amazon's HQ2 Short List (WSJ)

North Korea exported coal to South, Japan via Russia (Reuters)

Trump poised for clash with DOJ over classified memo (The Hill)

Ackman's Pershing Square Takes Stake in Nike (WSJ)

WikiLeaks' Assange to Ask U.K. Court to Lift Arrest Warrant (

Anti-Trump FBI Official Identified As Leaker To WSJ, WaPo Reporter

Newly released text messages between controversial anti-Trump FBI agents Peter Strzok and Lisa Page reveal several leaks of confidential information to Wall St. Journal reporter, Devlin Barrett, who is now with the Washington Post.

avia Conservative Treehouse

Following the release of the timestamped texts by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, Conservative Treehouse compared the timing of the messages between the agents and tied them to several instances of Barrett breaking news or confirming rumors based on "sources" within the government.

Via the Conservative Treehouse:

On October 28th, 2016 (as above), at the exact time the re-opening of the Clinton investigation hit the media news-cycle, Page and Strzok were texting. From the released messaging we see at 5:19pm Lisa Page is on the phone with "Devlin":

Page: 5:19pm "Still on the phone with Devlin. Mike's phone is ON FIRE."

Strzok: 5:29pm "You might wanna tell Devlin he should turn on CNN, there's news on."

Page: 5:30pm "He knows. He just got handed a note."

Strzok: 5:33pm "Ha. He asking about it now?"

Page: 5:34pm "Yeah. It was pretty funny ...

Tencent Buys Help From the Terminator

The Chinese tech giant is buying 10% of the Hollywood studio behind the Terminator and Mission Impossible movies. The deal is part of its fight for the eyeballs of China's consumer masses.

Here's Where There Could Still Be Value in Global Stocks

Stocks are expensive, but global factories are suddenly running very hot. Investors still looking for an entry point might want to take a look at the big beneficiaries.

No Flaws in Intel's Earnings

The chip giant still faces concerns about security flaws in its chips, but strong results overshadow worries.

Deep Dive: These 27 S&P 500 stocks are blowing away the market with gains of 15% or more this month

Measuring the S&P: 23% of its components are up at least 10% so far in 2018 while 35 are in the red.

Tax overhaul will have a limited effect on U.S. economy, Moody's says

The U.S. tax bill signed into law in December will have a limited effect on the U.S. economy, as companies are unlikely to spend the money saved on growth initiatives and the tax cut for the wealthy will not trickle down.

Earnings Outlook: Apple earnings: Forget taxes and batteries, the $1,000 iPhone X remains the story

Apple has generated attention for its comments on taxes and batteries, but investors will focus mostly on iPhone sales when the company reports earnings Feb. 1

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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