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14Jul2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street To Open Flat, But Will Probably Go Negative After Negative CPI And Retail Sales, WTI Crude Climbs Into The 46 Handle And The US Dollar Is Showing Weakness

Written by Gary

US stock market indexes futures are flat (SPY +0.03%) after the 'not-so-good' CPI and Retail Sales reported in the negative territory this morning. Crude prices . . .

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed today. The CAC 40 is up 0.08% while the DAX gains 0.06%. The FTSE 100 is off 0.20%.

. . . are up and the US dollar is taking a nose dive before the opening bell.

The latest CPI figures have come out, as well as the newest reading on retail sales. Both were forecast to pop into positive territory for June after negative figures in May, but they are worse than May.

US retail sales fell 0.2 percent in June; spending down at restaurants, department stores and gasoline stations

US retail sales fell 0.2 percent in June; spending down at restaurants, department stores and gasoline stations.

US consumer prices unchanged in June as falling energy prices keep inflation in check

US consumer prices unchanged in June as falling energy prices keep inflation in check .

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

JPMorgan second-quarter profit beats estimates on loan growth, higher rates

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co , the biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Friday due to strong loan growth and higher interest rates.

Wells Fargo's profit rises 4.5 percent

(Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co , the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, posted a 4.5 percent rise in second-quarter profit, helped by loan growth and higher interest rates.

Citigroup profit beats on smaller drop in trading revenue

(Reuters) - Citigroup Inc reported a quarterly profit that beat analysts' estimates as trading revenue held up better than the company's forecast and loans grew.

Futures flat ahead of key data; JPMorgan kicks off earnings

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Friday as investors awaited key data for a reading on the health of the economy while JPMorgan kicked off second-quarter earnings.

U.S. farm lobby turns up heat on Trump team as NAFTA talks near

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With talks to renegotiate the NAFTA trade pact just weeks away, U.S. farm groups and lawmakers from rural states are intensifying lobbying of President Donald Trump's administration with one central message: leave farming out of it.

Fiat Chrysler recalls 1.33 million vehicles over fire, air bag risks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV said on Friday it is recalling 1.33 million vehicles worldwide in two separate campaigns for potential fire risks and inadvertent airbag deployments.

AT&T CEO to become executive chair following Time Warner deal: Bloomberg

(Reuters) - AT&T Inc is planning a major organizational reshuffle that will include a redefined role for Chief Executive Randall Stephenson following its $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc , Bloomberg reported on Friday.

German government says sees no signs Mercedes used illegal software

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German officials probing carmaker Mercedes-Benz, which is owned by Daimler, have found no signs so far that the carmaker made use of illegal software to manipulate emissions, a government spokesman said on Friday.

Barclays talking with regulators about Dublin unit post-Brexit

LONDON (Reuters) - Barclays is talking with regulators about extending its activities in Dublin in preparation for when Britain leaves the European Union, the British bank said in a statement on Friday.

How Dumb Is The Fed?

Authored by Bonner & Partners' Bill Bonner, annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum,

Bent and Distorted

This morning, we are wondering: How dumb is the Fed?

The question was prompted by this comment by former Fed insider Chris Whalen at The Institutional Risk Analyst blog...

[O]ur message to the folks in Jackson Hole this week [at the annual central banker meeting there] is that the end of the Fed's reckless experiment in social engineering via QE and near-zero interest rates will end in tears.

"Momentum" stocks like Tesla, to paraphrase our friend Dani Hughes on CNBC last week, will adjust and the mother of all rotations into bonds and defensive stocks will ensue. We must wonder aloud if Chair Yellen and her colleagues on the FOMC fully understand what they have done to the US equity markets. [...]

Once the hopeful souls who've driven bellwethers such as Tesla and Amazon into the stratosphere realize that the debt driven game of stock repurchases really is over, then we'll see a panic rotation back into fixed income and defensive stocks.

They're not the best map readers, that much is known for certain. [PT]

If you believe the newspapers, the Fed has begun a "tightening cycle." It is on course to rai ...

The "Missing Slide": JPM Credit Card Charge-Offs Jump To Four Year High

While JPM was quick to provide all the favorable data in its earnings presentation (and not so favorable when it comes to the sharp drop in its markets sales and trading division) one thing was conspicuously missing: the slide on "Mortgage Banking And Card Services" which has traditionally been part of the bank's earnings presentation and was certainly featured prominently last quarter.

Of course, it is possible that JPM simply forgot to include it, or perhaps it did not want to bring attention to a troubling trend: the concerning increase in net credit card charge-offs, which last quarter rose to just shy of $1 billion, and which prompted JPM to report an unexpected increase in credit costs (driven also by JPM's write-down in its student loan portfolio).

So we decided to recreate the chart using data JPM disclosed in its earnings supplement, and which may explain why JPM unexpectedly forgot to add that particular slide. It shows that JPM's net credit card chargeoffs surpassed $1 billion as of June 30, and we the highest going back to March 2013.

As a reminder, in his Q2 commentary while Jamie Dimon was quick to not ...

Hawaii Judge Orders Loosening Of Trump Travel Ban

With President Donald Trump safely out of the country, joining French President Emmanuel Macron at a Bastille Day parade in Paris, A federal judge in Hawaii has ordered a temporary loosening of the Trump administration's travel ban after finding that the administration's strict interpretation of the Supreme Court's decision isn't justified. The ruling was issued by US District Judge Derrick Watson - a longtime Obama ally and the same judge who blocked the second "watered down" Trump travel ban back in March.

The Wall Street Journal described Watson's decision as "a fresh legal blow for the president just two weeks after a Supreme Court ruling allowed the administration to implement its travel ban against refugees and foreign nationals from six countries who have no connection to the US."

Trump's March 6 executive order banned travelers from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen for 90 days, as well as all refugees for 120 days. The Supreme Court ruled two weeks ago that a "narrower" version of the Trump travel ban could take effect, but that anyone from the six countries with a "bona fide relationship" to a US person or entity could not be barred. The Supreme Court has promised to issue a final ruling on the ban in October. The Trump administration then limited a "bona fide" relationship to spouses, parents, children, fiancés and siblings, barring grandparents and other family members - a measure that Trump sa ...

"Financial Crisis" Coming By End Of 2018 - Prepare Urgently

"Financial Crisis Of Historic Proportions" Is "Bearing Down On Us"

John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics latest research note, Prepare for Turbulence, is excellent and a must read warning about the coming financial crisis. Mind refreshed from what sounds like a wonderful honeymoon and having had the time to read some books outside his "comfort zone" he has come to the conclusion that we are on the verge of a "major financial crisis, if not later this year, then by the end of 2018 at the latest."

Source: Financial Times

Mauldin is a New York Times bestselling author and respected investment expert and his excellent analysis concludes with advice to prepare urgently for the financial "crisis of historic proportions" which is "once again bearing down on us":

How to Prepare When Central Banks All Row in the Same Direction

The risk to markets is that investors get too comfortable with the idea that by moving gradually central banks won't create much disturbance.

Intel: Lonely At The Top

Intel's dominance in key chip makers has created a unique vulnerability. As challengers emerge in PCs and servers, Intel seems to have nowhere to go but down.

You Can't Build a Low-Cost Airline Without Low Costs

Norwegian Air wants to upend the market for travel between the U.S. and Europe. But rapid expansion has come at a cost.

Documentary Of The Week: Phishing For Phools

Written by John Lounsbury

Econintersect: Prof. Robert Shiller, Yale University, gave a presentation about the book released in 2015, Phishing for Phools, which he co-authored with George Ackerlof. The presentation, at the London School of Economics, shortly after the book was released, discusses how dishonesty, manipulation and deception play central roles in the economy. The assumptions of most economics theories ignore these pervasive components of how the world works.


Capitol Report: Trump lawyers knew about Russia emails three weeks ago | Changes in the Senate health bill are aimed at these people

Trump lawyers knew about Russia emails three weeks ago; who the Senate's health-bill changes are aimed at; an ex-Soviet counter intelligence officer was in the June 2016 meeting with Donald Trump Jr., and more.

'Spider-Man: Homecoming' needed a rare industry collaboration to get made

In 1999, before dazzling moviegoers with web-slinging heroics and before the kiss, Spider-Man was forced to fly the coup. He left his home, Marvel Studios, and no one could have guessed he'd ever return.

Economic Report: Inflation goes nowhere in June, CPI shows

The cost Americans pay for goods and services was flat in June, larger reflecting lower gasoline prices but also showing that a recent surge in inflation has crested.

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