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15May2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street To Open Higher, NY Empire State Mfg. Down Sharply, First Negative Reading Since Election

Written by Gary

Stock market future indexes are pointing to moderately higher opening this morning (SPY +0.2%) with a fractional pullback later in the session. WTI crude prices are up almost 3 percent to $49.45 a barrel and the US dollar continues to slide.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed. The FTSE 100 is higher by 0.08%, while the DAX is leading the CAC 40 lower. They are down 0.25% and 0.08% respectively.

Futures point to a higher open on Wall Street as oil prices soar

Looking at the last three columns (below), the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Oil surges 2.5 percent, soothes cyber nerves

LONDON (Reuters) - A bounce in oil and other commodities prodded stock markets higher on Monday, cushioning the hit to sentiment from a successful missile test by North Korea and a cyber attack that locked 200,000 computers in more than 150 countries.

U.S. companies push hard for lower tax rate on offshore profits

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Major U.S. multinationals are pushing the Trump administration to deepen the tax break it has already tentatively proposed on $2.6 trillion in corporate profits being held offshore, a key piece in Washington's intricate tax reform puzzle.

Some businesses in Asia disrupted by cyber attack, authorities brace for more

SINGAPORE/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Asian governments and businesses reported some disruptions from the WannaCry ransomware worm on Monday but cybersecurity experts warned of a wider impact as more employees turned on their computers and checked e-mails.

Oil rises above $52 as Saudis, Russia back longer supply cut

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil hit a three-week high on Monday above $52 a barrel after top exporter Saudi Arabia and Russia said supply cuts needed to last into 2018, a step toward extending an OPEC-led deal to support prices for longer than originally agreed.

China's Xi says Belt and Road summit reaches consensus, achieves positive outcomes

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's first ever Belt and Road summit, held in Beijing over the last two days, has reached a broad consensus and achieved positive outcomes, President Xi Jinping said on Monday.

Thermo Fisher to buy drug ingredients maker Patheon for $5.2 billion

(Reuters) - Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc , the world's No. 1 maker of scientific instruments, said on Monday it would buy Dutch drug ingredients maker Patheon NV as it looks to become a one-stop shop for contract drug development and manufacturing.

GM supplier relations improve in North America, Nissan's slip: study

DETROIT (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co has fallen behind its top North American competitors in the health of its working relationships with suppliers while General Motors Co jumped to third place in rankings released on Monday.

Western Digital takes legal action to block sale of Toshiba's chip unit

TOKYO (Reuters) - Western Digital Corp has sought international arbitration to stop partner Toshiba Corp from selling its chips arm without its consent, potentially derailing a much-needed capital injection for the Japanese conglomerate.

Lyft partners with Waymo to launch self-driving car pilots

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. ride services company Lyft Inc and Alphabet Inc's self-driving car unit Waymo have launched a self-driving vehicle partnership, bringing together two rivals to dominant ride-sharing service Uber Technologies Inc.[UBER.UL]

No...You Can't Have Your 90's Back

Authored by Lance Roberts via,

As I was writing the newsletter this past weekend, the following email rolled into my inbox:

"The S&P will double. And not just eventually. But over the next 5 years (or sooner). Sounds like a Herculean task on the surface, but it's really not.

My 5-year doubling thesis also means that we won't see another recession until stocks double again, nor will we see another bear market until stocks double again. Got it?"

The email goes on to make the case as to why the markets will do something that has never occurred before in history, or "why this time is different," which can be summed up in one word - "Trumponomics"

"It's no secret that the market has been re-energized this year on the Trump administration's pro-growth agenda, which includes the highly anticipated corporate tax cuts.

There's no doubt some of that will go to stock buybacks. But with the US suddenly becoming one of the most business-friendly countries in the world, you will see massive new corporate investment.

These tax cuts alone could usher in decades of new prosperity.

And it should be noted that these aren't one-time stimulus packages that provide only temporary incentives and modest economic benefits. We're talking about transformational growth due to long-term ...

Frontrunning: May 15

Oil Jumps Over Output Deal (BBG), Saudi Arabia, Russia Favor Extending Oil Cuts Through Next March (BBG)

Trump Doctrine Confounds G-7 as Ministers Kick Can to Sicily (BBG)

Senate GOP's agenda is at a moment of reckoning with unpredictable Trump (WaPo)

White House Races to Fill FBI Job (WSJ)

Former Trump Employees Say He Taped Phone Conversations (WSJ)

Monday morning blues as 'WannaCry' hits at workweek's start (AP)

Britain worked through night to counter cyber attack on health service: minister (Reuters)

North Korea steps closer to an ICBM (Reuters)

North Korea missile launch due to 'state of paranoia': U.N. envoy Haley (Reuters)

Behind China's Silk Roa ...

Cyber Attacks Show Vulnerability of Digital Systems and Digital Currencies

Cyber Attacks Show Vulnerability of Digital Systems and Digital Currencies

- Cyberattacks expected to spread today in "second phase"
- UK intelligence says scale of threat significant
- Microsoft slams NSA for letting hacking tools cause global malware epidemic
- Ransomware attack already crippled more than 200,000 computers in 150 countries
- 1.3 million computer systems believed to be at risk
- Europol warns many computer systems simply won't start
- Businesses, banks and government agencies around world told to prepare
- Renault, FedEx among companies affected by cyber-attack
- Banks in China including ATMs were affected
- Hackers could shut down banks and cut off power and water supplies
- "Biggest threat to civilisation" since the Second World War - Cyber security expert
- Risks posed to digital deposits and digital wealth are the "new case for gold"
- Cyber attacks growing in frequency - Western financial system vu ...

Goldman Lists Two Conditions For The OPEC Production Cut Extension To Work

Goldman, which has been pushing for higher oil prices with seemingly daily bullish research reports for the past month, and which underwrote the last Saudi Arabian bond issue and is expected to also manage the Aramco IPO (explaining the bank's conflict of interest), released a note commeting on the latest development in the oil market, which sent the price of crude higher by 3% after Saudi and Russia oil minister agreed to extend the OPEC production cuts by another 9 months through the end of Q1 2018. Specifically, Goldman writes that "today's announcement will likely further extend the oil price rebound started last week on decent stock draws and low positioning, although the rally so far today has remained modest compared to the move that occurred last year when the OPEC cuts were first announced."

Even so, Goldman's oil analyst Damien Courvalin had some caveats. Specifically, he said that for the strategy to work, however, two things have to take place:

  1. compliance needs to remain high and

    long-term oil prices need to remain low to prevent shale producers from ramping up investment significantly more. In fact, an extension of the cuts should go hand in hand with guidance of future production increases by low cost producers, in our view, with an already notable emphasis by Saudi and others that oil prices will likely remain in a $45-55/bbl long-term range, in line with our forecasts. This leaves us reiterating our 3Q17 $57/bbl Brent price forecast and, with an increasingly likely extension of the cuts, raises our confidence that the oil market will shift into backwardation in 3Q17.

His full note below:

Saudi and Russia commit to a 9-month extension of oil production cuts

Saudi Arabia and Russia announced today, May 15, that they had reached an agreement to extend their oil output cuts for another nine months, through Mar-18. This anno ...

Profit Growth Will Come From Overseas

Foreign operations for U.S. companies will benefit from buoyant economies and with little wage pressure, boosting profit growth.

China's Debt Addiction Will Be Hard to Cure

China's regulators risk creating more appetite for debt even as they try to crack down on it.

Amazon's IPO at 20: That Amazing Return You Didn't Earn

Amazon's stock has surged in its 20 years of trading, but few investors stayed on the roller-coaster to get those gains.

Economic Report: Empire State index slumps in May to first negative reading since election

A gauge of New York-area manufacturing slumped to negative 1 in May, according to data released Monday.

Jeff Reeves's Strength in Numbers: Tech stocks' three winners, three losers after earnings season

There was a shakeout in the industry during the first quarter, writes Jeff Reeves.

As North Korea goes ahead with nukes, how should I position my portfolio?

What's key is having hedges and cash on hand, writes Nigam Arora.

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