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01May2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street To Open Moderately Higher, Government Shutdown Avoided, Crude Prices Slip As US Output Increases

Written by Gary

US stock market futures have edged higher (SPY +0.3%) this morning, with analysts pinning the small gains on a deal to fund the government through Sept. 30. Corporate earnings will keep the fire under the most recent stock rally say analysts. WTI crude edged below $49 a barrel as rising crude output in the United States countered OPEC-led production cuts.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets finished lower on Friday with shares in London leading the region. The FTSE 100 is down 0.46% while France's CAC 40 is off 0.08% and Germany's DAX is lower by 0.05%.

Wall Street is set for a higher open after US government avoids shutdown

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan +0.6%. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London closed. Paris closed. Frankfurt closed.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude -0.3% to $49.19. Gold -0.3% to $1264.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 2.3%

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Twenty-First Century Fox in talks with Blackstone to buy Tribune

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc is in talks with Blackstone Group LP about submitting an offer to buy Tribune Media Co , one of the largest U.S. television station operators, sources familiar with the matter said on Sunday.

Dish's profit falls on bigger-than-expected subscriber loss

(Reuters) - Dish Network Corp reported a 6 percent drop in quarterly profit on Monday as the U.S. satellite TV provider lost more pay-TV subscribers than expected.

Asian equities edge up as Japan outperforms, dollar regains traction

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks shook off a sluggish start and edged up on Monday, with Japan outperforming on upbeat earnings, while the dollar regained traction as the U.S. government looked likely to avoid a shutdown.

Trump could target 'carried interest' tax loophole: official

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Trump administration's push to overhaul tax laws might soon target a loophole used by some financial managers to lower their tax rates, White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus said on Sunday.

Japan final April PMI shows manufacturing activity accelerating, export orders solid

TOKYO, (Reuters) - - Japanese manufacturing activity expanded at a stronger pace in April than the previous month as export orders increased, a revised survey showed on Monday, suggesting firms' output remains on track to rise thanks to overseas demand.

U.S. to probe Japanese, German automakers over alleged patent violations

TOKYO (Reuters) - The United States will begin an investigation into whether thermoplastic components used in some Japanese and German vehicle models sold in the country violate its patent laws, trade authorities said late last week.

UPS air maintenance workers threaten strike ahead of shareholders meeting

(Reuters) - A union representing 1,200 U.S. air maintenance workers at United Parcel Service Inc turned up pressure on the company on Sunday to settle a three-year contract dispute, saying it would seek clearance to strike.

Siemens, SAP sign cooperation deals with Saudi Arabia: officials

JEDDAH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia wants German companies Siemens and SAP to play an important role in furthering the kingdom's "digital transformation", company officials said on Sunday during German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to the country.

Off target in 2016, global elite regroup at Milken conference

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. (Reuters) - Titans of U.S. industry and Wall Street gather in Beverly Hills this week to discuss how to navigate - and profit from - hot topics such as U.S. tax reform, the upcoming French election and Chinese economic growth.

Economic Reality: Bottom 50% Of Americans No Longer Matter

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Fed likes to brag about the "We saved the world" recovery.

However, the unfortunate truth of the matter is a record Half of American Families Live Paycheck to Paycheck.

Does it Matter? Let's investigate.

Unprepared for Nearly Anything


50% are woefully unprepared for a financial emergency.

Nearly 1 in 5 (19%) Americans have nothing set aside to cover an unexpected emergency.

Nearly 1 in 3 (31%) Americans don't have at least $500 set aside to cover an unexpected emergency expense, according to a survey released Tuesday by HomeServe USA, a home repair service.

A separate survey released Monday by insurance company MetLife found that 49% of employees are "concerned, anxious or fearful about their current financial well-being."

Deleveraging? Where?

A Fed study shows U.S. Households Will Soon Have as Much Debt as They had in 2008.

The Federal Reserv ...

Frontrunning: May 1



Congress Inks Spending Deal That Jettisons Trump Priorities (BBG)

Trump Pushes for Vote on Health Bill but Hurdles Remain (WSJ)

Apple's Cash Hoard Set to Top $250 Billion (WSJ)

Hamas to soften stance on Israel, Muslim Brotherhood in policy document (Reuters)

UPS Tries a New Twist on Surge Pricing (WSJ)

How Does Trump's Tax Plan Help the Middle Class? 'Honestly, We Don't Know' (BBG)

French voters skeptical Macron, Le Pen have answers on key issues (Reuters)

Trump Leaves Open Possibility of Military Action Against North Korea (WSJ)

U.S.-backed militias oust Islamic State from Syria's Tabqa old city (Reuters)

Puerto Rico Bondholders Reject Island's Restructuring Offer (BBG)

Hackers Ran Through Holes in Swift's Network (

Defiant North Korea Warns Of More Atomic Tests, Will Boost Nuclear Deterrence "To The Maximum"

North Korea's regime defied an increasingly broader chorus of voices, including the US, Japan, China, South Korea and Russia, saying on Monday that it will continue its nuclear weapons tests, and warned it would "speed up to the maximum" its measures for bolstering its nuclear deterrence in response to the U.S. increasing "aggression and hysteria" against the country, a North Korea Foreign Ministry spokesman says in statement distributed by the official Korean Central News Agency.

"Now that the U.S. is kicking up the overall racket for sanctions and pressure against the DPRK, pursuant to its new DPRK policy called 'maximum pressure and engagement', the DPRK will speed up at the maximum pace the measure for bolstering its nuclear deterrence," a spokesman for North Korea's foreign ministry said in a statement carried by its official KCNA news agency. North Korea's "measures for bolstering the nuclear force to the maximum will be taken in a consecutive and successive way at any moment and any place decided by its supreme leadership," the spokesman said.

North Korea has carried out five nuclear tests and a series of missile tests in defiance of U.N. Security Council and unilateral resolutions. It has been conducting such tests at an unprecedented rate and is believed to have made progress in developing intermediate-range and submarine-launched missiles. The communist nation test-launched a missile on Saturday which Washington and Seoul said was unsuccessful, but which nevertheless drew widespread international condemnation.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said a "major, major conflict" with No ...

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: FOMC, Payrolls, 131 S&P Companies Report

Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, and French & Italian politics - the decisive runoff round of the French election takes place this Sunday - this week's releases are dominated by US payrolls expected to come around 170k. The busy release calendar continues with Norges bank and RBA meetings as well as global manufacturing PMIs.

The market's focus during the week of 5/1 will begin to shift away from the micro as the CQ1 earnings season winds down and back to the macro w/a slew of eco data and some central bank decisions scheduled (including the FOMC on Wed 5/3 and US jobs on Fri 5/5; also note that Yellen is scheduled to speak Fri after the jobs report at 1:30pmET). The eco data out this week could be crucial in helping to resolve the current debate around growth

In the US, the data calendar will be very busy this week, highlighted by Monday's personal income and spending data (including the PCE Deflators) and Friday's April employment data. We expect solid income, modest spending, and relatively soft deflators, continuing the theme of very tame inflation data that we have seen over the past quarter. On employment, we expect a solid rebound in payroll growth following last month's weather-induced disappointment and the overall tone will be consistent with the notion that the labor market is at or near full employment. Specifically, we also expect that AHE will rise on trend and that the unemployment rate will be unchanged at 4.5%. Rounding out the calendar, Wall Street expects modest declines in the ISM indexes, though both will remain at solid outright levels, a bump in auto sales following the March swoon, and solid construction spending as well.. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

China Looks to Export Auto Overcapacity on Slow-Growth World

China makes too many cars and wants to make even more. Auto makers everywhere should worry about the spillover effects.

Sony Finds Success in All the Right Places

Sony reported strong results Friday but what should excite investors are the rosy forecasts for the future.

Economy Needs Consumers to Shop Again

First-quarter slowdowns have become such a regular feature of the U.S. economy that investors will be tempted to brush off this last one. They shouldn't.

Is inflation hotter than the market will admit? Bond panel can't quite agree

Bond market decision-makers, including BlackRock's Rick Rieder, have quite a mixed view of inflation risks. Their divide is tied to a puzzling U.S. economy that's boosted by technology muscle and rising wages but dragged down by high debt levels and global risks.

Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks set to rise after government shutdown averted

U.S. stock futures edge higher Monday, with analysts pinning the small gains on a deal among Congressional leaders to fund the government through Sept. 30.

Jeff Reeves's Strength in Numbers: 5 doomed stocks to sell in May

Sell in May? Do it with these five, says Jeff Reeves

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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