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25Apr2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Most Global Markets Are In The Green

Written by Gary

Global markets are in the green. Some say the markets are reacting positively to the French elections - others say it was triggered by lower chances of USA government shutdown. Oil prices are up this morning whilst gold is down. Dollar is bouncing around in a tight range.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 0.31% while London's FTSE 100 is up 0.26% and Germany's DAX is up 0.02%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

World stocks rise on French vote relief, Trump tax plan talk

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks hit record highs on Tuesday, with investors' relief at centrist Emmanuel Macron's victory in the first round of the French presidential election supported by speculation about U.S. tax reform.

Not an inside job: How two analysts became SEC whistleblowers

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Four years ago, two analysts who liked to swap notes on numbers they thought looked odd took a fateful step and tipped off U.S. regulators about a company that one of them had watched for months.

For Wells Fargo directors, narrow wins may not be enough

(Reuters) - A shareholder vote scheduled for Tuesday could throw Wells Fargo & Co's leadership into question if many directors, criticized for their slow response to the bank's phony-account scandal, fail to win solid majorities.

Eli Lilly's profit beats on demand for newer drugs

(Reuters) - Eli Lilly and Co reported a bigger-than-expected quarterly adjusted profit as the drugmaker benefited from higher demand for its newer products including diabetes treatment Trulicity and psoriasis drug Taltz.

Exclusive: Boeing near decision to launch 737-10 jet - sources

PARIS (Reuters) - Boeing is nearing a decision to launch a larger version of its 737 workhorse jet within two months to counter strong sales of the Airbus A321neo, after a breakthrough on the design for one of its parts, industry sources said.

LVMH's Arnault to take full control of Christian Dior

PARIS (Reuters) - French billionaire Bernard Arnault will combine the Christian Dior fashion brand with his LVMH luxury goods group as part of a 12 billion euro ($13 billion) move to simplify his business interests, a restructuring long demanded by other investors.

Gazprom CEO sees share of EU gas market rising despite LNG rivals

LONDON (Reuters) - A new pipeline from Russia's Arctic fields to Germany will boost Moscow's share of the European gas market despite competition from Qatar and the United States, and will also mean much less fuel goes via Ukraine, Russian gas monopoly Gazprom said.

Investors take another look at opinion polls after French vote

LONDON (Reuters) - Pollsters picked the two candidates to make it into next month's French presidential election run-off, going some way to restoring their reputation in financial markets before other important votes across Europe.

DuPont profit beats on strong seed demand

(Reuters) - Chemicals and seeds producer DuPont , which is merging with Dow Chemical Co , reported a better-than-expected profit for the seventh straight quarter, helped by a rise in seed sales.

Breslow: "What We've Seen So Far This Week Has Been A Gap Repricing Without Any Price Discovery"

Yesterday, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow expressed surprise at the exuberant market euphoria that resulted from a French election outcome that was "everybody's base case." 24 hours later, his surprise remains and as he says in his latest daily note, "what I do question is why everyone keeps telling me this was their forecasted and most likely outcome, yet the world has changed." Maybe nothing Breslow answers, and muses that it is all just the market gaps without any actual price discovery:

What we've had so far this week, I know it's only Tuesday, has been a repricing without the benefit of meaningful price discovery along the way. Gaps during the Asia-Pacific opening are one thing. Ones followed by flat-lined price action suggest order books emptied followed by "So what do we do now?" And if there isn't a quick follow-through in momentum, the next question will be "What have we done?"

That, however would imply an inefficient market, and Breslow concedes as much: "Markets have proven they do a poor job of assessing political risk. Partially because it's hard, the implications of outcomes often utterly unpredictable and, the dirty secret traders hate to admit, they sometimes prefer outcomes for others that, as citizens of that jurisdiction, they wouldn't choose. Having said that, the "worst case" scenario that was avoided was never very likely."

Government Shutdown Averted? Trump Punts On Border Wall, Will Wait Until September

In what may the flip-flop that resonates the most among his core voter base, Trump said that contrary to recent reports that the White House demands funding for Trump's proposed wall along the Mexican border be part of the spending bill - which has become a wildcard whether the government is shut on Friday night or not - Trump said on Monday that he is "open to waiting until later this year" to secure funding for said wall, a flop that would clear the way for Congress to strike a deal to avoid a government shutdown on Saturday, the WSJ reported.

On funding the border wall, Trump said he could get it this week or the administration could come back to it in September.

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) April 24, 2017

Trade Wars Begin: Trump Announces 20% Tariff On Canadian Softwood Lumber Imports

Speaking during a first of its kind meeting dedicated only to members of the U.S. conservative media, including Breitbart News, OANN and Daily Caller, President Trump told reporters to expect a 20% tariff on softwood lumber coming into Canada.

"We're going to be putting a 20 per cent tax on softwood lumber coming in — tariff on softwood coming into the United States from Canada," tweeted Charlie Spiering of Breitbart Media.

Trey Yingst of OANN tweeted that according to Trump "Canada has treated us very unfairly" and also threatened a tax on Canada's dairy industry.

According to the WSJ, Wilbur Ross said the tariff will be applied retroactively and imposed on Canadian exports to the U.S. of about $5 billion a year. He said the dispute centers on Canadian provinces that have been allegedly allowing loggers to cut down trees at reduced rates and sell them at low prices. "The determination that Canada improperly subsidizes its exports is preliminary, and the Commerce Department will need to make a final decision. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission will need to find that the U.S. industry has suffered injury. But even a preliminary decision has immediate real-world consequences, by discouraging importers from buying lumber from Canada."

Or, as a WSJ associate editor put it, "Blame the Chinese, but tax the Canadians:"

Blame the Chinese, but tax the Canadians:
"Trump to impose 20% tariff on imports of Canadian softwood lumber"

Washington D.C. To Hold Massive "Coordinated Terror Attack" Drill This Wednesday

April 26th is shaping up to be a busy day.

As we reported on Friday, that's when Operation Gotham Shield, an exercise involving FEMA, Homeland Security and a myriad of law enforcement and military agencies and which simulates a nuclear bomb blast over Manhattan, is set to conclude.

Then, as we learned earlier, April 26 is also when the entire Senate will be briefed by Donald Trump and his four top defense and military officials on the situation in North Korea at the White House, an event which Reuters dubbed as "unusual."

April 26 is also when the USS Carl Vinson is expected to finally arrive off the coast of the Korean Penninsula.

Now, in a statement from the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, the regional association reports that "law enforcement officials and other first responders will participate in a full-scale exercise on April 26 designed to prepare for the possibility of a complex coordinated terror attack in the National Capital Region."

What Credit Suisse Needs to Get Investors Back on Side

Europe's investment banks need a big first quarter, none more so than Credit Suisse, where tensions have grown over bonuses and performance.

The U.S. Economy's Full-Tank Conundrum

As in other areas of the U.S. economy, hard energy data is lagging behind buoyant consumer confidence.

French Election Result Helps Euro Slip Political Shackles

When it comes to the euro, what doesn't kill it should make it stronger. The existential threat posed to the single currency by the French elections has faded. The focus should move to the economy and the European Central Bank.

Infographic Of The Day: Comparison Of Population Density

You may have heard that the majority of the world's population actually lives within a relatively small circle that covers China, India, Japan, and other parts of Southeast Asia.

Early Headlines: Asia Stocks, Dollar, And Oil All Up, Gold Down, China Stocks Diverge, Bankrupt Retail, Courtiers To Palace Wed., US Starts Trade War With Canada Over Lumber, And More

Written by Econintersect

Early Bird Headlines 25 April 2017

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

Market Extra: The U.K.'s largest bank says French vote is a 'game changer' for the euro

A team of currency strategists at HSBC says French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron's first-place finish in Sunday's first-round election will have a lasting impact on the euro as investors look past Europe's unruly politics toward signs of a nascent economic turnaround.

Key Words: Bernanke warns that a 'politicized' U.S. economy will create bad policies

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says views on the U.S. economy are "partisan colored," and that may turn into trouble.

Adding calorie counts on menus might make Americans eat better — but not in the way you'd think

The idea is simple enough: if consumers see calorie information, they'll eat better, advocates say. But the research suggests otherwise.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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