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19Apr2017 Market Update: US Stocks Mixed, DOW Down 60 Points, IBM Sucked The Life Out Of The $DJI, WTI Crude Water-falling Past The 51 Handle, US Dollar Showing Some Strength

Written by Gary

Wall Street is mostly green, but trending downward ($DJI -0.3%) (SPY +0.1%), IBM (NYSE: IBM) is having an influence on the Dow Industrials (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) today, much like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) did on Tuesday, as the technology bellwether's shares dive on disappointing first-quarter results.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.30% while the S&P 500 gains 0.10%. The Bovespa is off 0.79%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 74%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 30%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 63%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +2.49
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
81%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 65%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 70%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.09
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 87.45
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,379

Looking at the last three columns (below), the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Tech, bank stocks lift S&P, Nasdaq; IBM holds back Dow

(Reuters) - Gains in technology and financial stocks propped up the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on Wednesday, while a slump in IBM held back the Dow.

Trump 'absolutely not' trying to talk down dollar: Mnuchin

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is "absolutely not" trying to talk down the strength of the dollar, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was quoted as saying in the Financial Times on Wednesday.

OPEC, non-OPEC to meet on same day as group's May gathering-sources

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC plans to meet with non-OPEC oil producers on the same day as its scheduled May 25 conference, sources familiar with the arrangements said, as they decide whether to extend supply cuts into the second half of the year.

Change of fortune in bond trading boosts Morgan Stanley profit

(Reuters) - Morgan Stanley surprised Wall Street on Wednesday by producing a 74 percent jump in quarterly profit on the strength of a business that analysts and investors had for years written off as dead.

Booming ETFs help BlackRock weather investors' cost-cutting

NEW YORK (Reuters) - BlackRock Inc , the world's biggest asset manager, on Wednesday reported double-digit profit gains as investors plowed money into lower-cost index funds, but the company saw its share price trimmed as revenue disappointed analysts' expectations.

Abbott sees Alere as challenging 'fixer-upper' after revised deal

(Reuters) - Abbott Laboratories said it was looking to close the recently revised deal to buy Alere Inc in the coming months, calling the diagnostics company "a bit of a fixer-upper".

Exclusive: U.S. regulator knocks its own handling of Wells Fargo sales scandal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co and its U.S. bank regulator discussed complaints of high-pressure sales tactics as early as 2010 but officials took no action for years, according to a regulator's review of the scandal.

Exclusive: China gathers state-led consortium for Aramco IPO - sources

HONG KONG/RIYADH/DUBAI (Reuters) - China is creating a consortium, including state-owned oil giants and banks and its sovereign wealth fund, that will act as a cornerstone investor in the initial public offering of Saudi Aramco, people with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters.

Hybrid blues: China policies force Toyota into electric U-turn

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - The automotive industry's seemingly inexorable drive towards electric cars - and especially Chinese polices pushing new energy vehicles - has forced Toyota Motor Corp , the world's No.2 automaker by sales, into what one executive calls an "agonizing" strategy U-turn.

Fed's Rosengren: "Quite Likely" The Fed's Balance Sheet Will Be Used In The Next Recession

The Fed has not even announced the framework of what its balance sheet "normalization" would look like, and already Boston Fed president Rosengren is talking about the next Fed QE program.

In a speech titled "The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy" delivered to Bard College on Wednesday afternoon, Rosengren said that structural changes in the macroeconomy "may necessitate more frequent use of large-scale asset purchases during recessions" and he said it is "quite likely" that the use of central bank balance sheets will be necessary in future economic downturns.

The reason? A combination of low inflation, low rates of productivity growth, and slow population growth may imply an economy "where equilibrium short-term interest rates remain relatively low" by historical standards. In other words, the natural rate, or r-star, is so low, the Fed will only be able to hike rates a handful of times before it tip the economy over into contraction, requiring a new easing regime.

As a result, reductions in short-term rates to combat recessions will encounter the zero boundary and "will not be sufficient," Rosengren said - so "it is likely to be more common for central banks to engage in asset purchases to stimulate the economy by reducing longer-term rates."

"So balance-sheet expansions - and exits - are likely to become more standard monetary policy tools around the world."

As a quick reminder, for all the talk of tightening, central banks are currently creating just under $200 billion in new money every month...

... and the total size of the big 6 central banks is now o ...

Dow Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies, Tests 2-Month Lows

Overnight exuberance - perhaps on Trump tax comments - has been erased.

The Dow is testing recent lows (2-month lows) as VIX jumps and the USD, bond yield surge stalls.

Of course, the media would like you to ignore IBM (which accounts for 60 of the 70 down dow points).

But everything is sliding after the European close...

And Goldman keeps falling

April 25 Is "Highest Probability" Day For North Korean Nuclear Test China Warns

According to a report by Korea JoongAng Daily, China appears to be preparing measures in case North Korea tests a nuclear device or performs another provocation, including possibly suspending oil to the regime, and adds that relations between Beijing and Pyongyang appear frostier than ever before.

Additionally, the Korea publication references the Chinese-language Boxun News, which cites a Beijing source, according to whom Chinese President Xi Jinping attempted to send Wu Dawei, China's special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs, to Pyongyang after his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, but North Korean leader Kim Jong-un allegedly rejected Wu's visit.

Boxun adds that it was unclear if North Korea did not conduct a sixth nuclear test last Saturday because of Beijing's warning not to do so, however it adds that according to "analysts" there's a high likelihood of a provocation on the 85th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean People's Army next Tuesday and the days leading up to the South Korean presidential election on May 9.

Citing its Chinese source, Boxun said that "China believes there is the "highest possibility" of a nuclear test on April 25, but "does not leave out the possibility it might take action in early May."

One assumes the Carl Vinson, wherever it may be in the world currently, will eventually make it to North Korea by then.

Meanwhile, South Korean officials cited by JoongAng Daily confirmed that Wu, China's top nuclear envoy, during a visit to Seoul last week said he proposed to visit Pyongyang in person to persuade the North to refrain from further provocations but he was spurned.

Lu Chao, a Chinese expert on Korean studies at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, was among multiple analysts that told the state-affiliated ...

Exxon Seeks Russian Sanctions Waiver To Work With Rosneft

Just as the "puppet of Putin" narrative had gone quiet - following Trump's Tomahawk-ing a largely abandoned airfield in Syria - it appears the Russia-linkages stories are about to get restarted. WSJ reports that Exxon Mobil has applied to the Treasury Department for a waiver from U.S. sanctions on Russia in a bid to resume its joint venture with state oil giant PAO Rosneft.

A military move clearly against Putin's interests and a tense press conference seemed to 'shush' the constant Russophobic propaganda from America's left, but just day safter Secretary of State and former CEO of Exxon Rex Tillerson left Moscow, The Wall Street Journal reports, Exxon has been seeking U.S. permission to drill with Rosneft in several areas banned by sanctions and applied in recent months for a waiver to proceed in the Black Sea, according to these people.

"Exxon is worried it could get boxed out of the Black Sea by the Italians," said a person briefed on the company's waiver application. Eni has been aggressively exploring the region in cooperation with Russia in recent years.

Exxon is seeking a waiver akin to those that have been granted by the EU to its rivals, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Tillerson is recusing himself from any matters involving Exxon for two years, and won't be involved with any ...

Morgan Stanley Makes CaseWhy Banks Can Go Higher

Morgan Stanley capped earnings season for top U.S. banks by turning the focus back on capital requirements.

More Color Doesn't Make Akzo Nobel's Defense More Convincing

When a company unveils a 1 billion special dividend, punchy new margin targets and quarterly earnings a fifth above forecasts, you might expect its shares to leap. The exception, as Akzo Nobel showed, is when the announcement is designed to block a takeover.

Bond Markets Send Jitters, But Is Anyone Listening?

Bonds have rallied sharply in the past six weeks, but other assets appear unfazed. Political jitters and positioning explain some of the moves, but it also leaves the possibility that investors should be more worried about the future.

Capitol Report: Why Georgia race should make Trump, Democrats anxious about 2018 election

President Donald Trump mocked Democrats for failing to win special congressional elections in Kansas and Georgia, but Republicans still have cause to worry about 2018 setback.

Key Words: Patriots' Gronk crashes the White House briefing

White House press secretary Sean Spicer got a surprise visitor at the daily briefing on Wednesday, when the New England Patriots' star tight end poked his head into the room and made a friendly offer.

Quinoa and seaweed are taking over your bathroom

Consumers believe products containing health foods must be better for them.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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