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15Mar2017 Market Update: Wall Street Higher Ahead Of Fed's Rate Hike Announcement, WTI Crude Holds Onto Earlier Gains, Analyst Says, Next 24 Hours Could Test This Stock Market In A Big Way

Written by Gary

US stocks have trended up from a positive gap up at the opening (SPY +0.5%) as investors await the Fed report outcome on raising rates at 2 pm. Crude prices have held on to strong gains after US crude supplies fell.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are higher today with shares in U.S. leading the region. The S&P 500 is up 0.48% while Brazil's Bovespa is up 0.40% and Mexico's IPC is up 0.12%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 66%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 48%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 65%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-56.43

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
87%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 67%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 76%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

25.77

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 87.07
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,514

There will be "trouble for equity markets" if the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moves beyond 3%, warned Jeffrey Gundlach, while another bond king stated 2.6% was the key level to watch.

According to Bill Gross, the number is much more important than Dow 20K, the price of oil or dollar strength, as it would signal a bear bond market.

Looking at the last three columns (below), the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Fed expected to raise rates as U.S. economy flexes muscle

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the second time in three months on Wednesday, encouraged by strong monthly job gains and confidence that inflation is finally rising to its target.

Snap shares hit new low in choppy trading as valuation concerns mount

(Reuters) - Shares in Snap Inc hit a fresh low on Wednesday, falling as much as 2.6 percent before clawing back some losses in choppy trading as analysts questioned the company's prospects.

Wall Street higher ahead of expected Fed rate hike

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday, with investors counting down to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to raise rates for the first time this year.

AT&T's $85.4 billion deal for Time Warner wins EU thumbs-up

(Reuters) - AT&T Inc has won approval from the European Commission for its planned $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc, the No. 2 U.S. wireless carrier said on Wednesday.

U.S. indicts Russian spies, hackers over massive Yahoo hack

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government on Wednesday unsealed charges against two Russian spies and two criminal hackers for allegedly pilfering 500 million Yahoo user accounts in 2014,

Opel CEO to stay on under Peugeot leadership: magazine

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Opel Chief Executive Karl-Thomas Neumann plans to remain in his job even after the carmaker has been sold to France's Peugeot, the German executive told German magazine Auto Motor und Sport.

Toshiba offers memory chip shares as collateral for loans: sources

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's crisis-racked Toshiba Corp has offered shares in its memory chip unit to creditors as collateral to secure debt refinancing, people briefed on the matter said on Wednesday.

Audi searched by German police in Dieselgate swoop

INGOLSTADT, Germany (Reuters) - German prosecutors searched Audi's two biggest plants and other sites on Wednesday in connection with the emissions scandal still rocking parent Volkswagen , adding to pressure on the luxury division and its Chief Executive Rupert Stadler.

GM will rehire 500 Michigan workers slated for layoffs

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - General Motors Co plans next year to rehire 500 Michigan assembly plant workers who are to be laid off in May, citing increased demand for larger vehicles, the company said on Wednesday.

Is A Fed Rate Hike Good Or Bad For Treasuries?

Well, it's probably a stretch to say the next installment in the Fed's tightening cycle is finally here. After all, as Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, a former FX trader and fund manager, notes, it was only a couple of weeks ago that this foregone conclusion wasn't even on the market's radar.

The abrupt about-face was jarring and out of character in its timing, but I like the lack of overbearing hand-holding.

It's about time that forward guidance doesn't have to mean as far as the eye can see. Is the Fed behind the curve? Are they letting the economy run hot? Not to any dangerous extent. But that doesn't mean it's not time to start getting on with things and make some faster progress toward the still very-low levels that might approximate the neutral rate.

Unfortunately, the market will still be fixated on the notion of whether it'll be a dovish or a hawkish hike. We'll get a hike, most likely more upbeat projections and assurances that if things keep evolving as they have and according to forecast there will be opportunities to do more. The Fed's thinking three would be nice this year. The market is pricing less than that. Guess what? They're unlikely to say they were only kidding.

But you're not going to get some blanket pre-commitment, data-dependency didn't die. You'll also hear from a committee that's a lot less afraid of making a mistake. If that's not good ...

Intelligence Sources Reveal: Obama Used British Agents For Trump Wire Tap Surveillance

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

While President Obama has vehemently denied issuing direct orders to the Justice Department or other domestic agencies to monitor President Trump during the 2016 election campaign, it is common knowledge that the National Security Agency has the ability to access video and audio from any number of devices in real time. In fact, according to Edward Snowden and documented in the recently released Snowden motion picture, U.S. spy agencies can simply flip a switch to watch or listen in on anything going on in a particular room by turning on a particular device's cameras and microphones.

Here's how it works:

The technology is real, but according to legal scholars, would have been illegal to use on Donald Trump or his surrogates without a warrant or probable cause indicating links to terrorist organizations.

But while domestic spy agencies like the NSA and CIA can't actively monitor a citizen on U.S. soil, there is a very convenient work-around that has been used for over a decade to accomplish this task without technically breaking the law.

According to three intelligence sources who spoke with Judge Napolitano, this is exactly what President Obama did to then-candidate Donald Trump.

Steve Watson explains:

Watch Live: DOJ Charges Russian Spies Over Yahoo Hack

As previewed earlier, a grand jury in California has charged four people — including two Russian FSB intelligence officers, i.e. "spies" — in a pair of computer hacks against Yahoo that victimised hundreds of millions of consumers, the DOJ said on Wednesday. The men penetrated Yahoo's email accounts, often using "spear phishing" emails, and used information they obtained to access other accounts at Yahoo and Google,, prosecutors said.

Watch the press conference live:


Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream

* * *

With Yahoo having previously accused "state actors" in its historic breach, which exposed the personal data of one billion users, and led to a drop in the price which Verizon ultimately paid for the core business, the WaPo reports, that the Justice Department is set to announce the indictments of two Russian spies and two criminal hackers in connection with the heist of 500 million Yahoo user accounts in 2014, marking the first U.S. criminal cyber charges ever against Russian government officials.

The indictments is said to target two members of the Russian intelligence agency FSB, and two hackers hired by the Russians. The charges include hacking, wire fraud, trade secret theft and economic espionage.

According to government officials, in the 2014 hack, Russia's Federal Security Service, the FSB - a successor to the KGB - supposedly sought information for intelligence purposes, targeting journalists, dissidents and U.S. government officials, but allowed the criminal hackers to ...

The Cost of Tough Immigration Rules

Little attention is being paid to the threat to food prices from a drop in immigrant labor, but recent history shows that labor shortages could drive up prices and labor costs and hurt profits.

H&M: Outsold By Zara But Oversold By Investors

How can two chains as similar as H&M and Zara—which both sell affordable fashion globally, but with a geographical bias to Europe—perform so differently? Financial data do not come with ready explanations, but it may be a good time to bet that the companies' fortunes reconverge.

Brexit Looms Over 40-Year Low in U.K. Unemployment

U.K. unemployment hasn't been lower since 1975. But wages are a worry for the future.

January 2017 Headline Business Sales and Inventories Improvement Continues

Written by Steven Hansen

Econintersect's analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) shows unadjusted sales improved. The rolling averages improved. Inventories remain elevated..

March 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Index Posts Its Fifth Consecutive Positive Reading

Written by Steven Hansen

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey marginally declined but remains in positive territory. Important internals significantly improved.

Is there a Wells Fargo-like bank-selling scandal breaking in Canada?

CBC says an investigation has drawn more than 1,000 emails from employees at the big 5 Canadian banks, complaining of the pressure on them to sell products their clients don't need.

Market Extra: Here's how the stock market tends to perform on Fed decision day

How do equities tend to do on days when the Federal Reserve delivers a decision on monetary policy? A research firm crunched the numbers.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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