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10Mar2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street To Gap Up Moderately At The Opening Bell, U.S. Jobs Creation Beats Forecasts, WTI Crude Climbs Higher As The US Dollar Falls

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are pointing to a higher opening (SPY +0.6%) as the Nonfarm Payrolls jumped 35 k higher and the unemployment rate fell to 4.7%. The US dollar fell fractionally as wage inflation misses and US jobs beats forecasts.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region. The FTSE 100 is up 0.68% while France's CAC 40 is up 0.59% and Germany's DAX is up 0.54%.

Looking at the last three columns (below), the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Futures extend gains after strong jobs data

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures extended gains on Friday after a better-than-expected February nonfarm payrolls report underscored the strength of the labor market and firmed up the odds for the first interest rate hike this year.

U.S. job growth seen strong in February; wages to rebound

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers likely maintained a brisk pace of hiring in February and boosted wages for workers, which is expected to give the Federal Reserve the green light to raise interest rates next week despite slowing economic growth.

China defends its Trump trademark approvals as in line with law

BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump was granted initial approval on dozens of new trademarks in China because they met legal standards, a senior Chinese commercial official said on Friday.

EU capitalizing on free-trade interest amid gloom over Trump policies

MANILA (Reuters) - The European Union is seeing increased impetus around the world to move forward with Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with the bloc, which will make the most of uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. trade policy, the EU's trade envoy said on Friday.

Japan bats away U.S. complaint on autos

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan rejected U.S. demands for more access to Japan's car market on Friday, casting doubt over whether it can avoid friction over autos and agriculture imports at high level bilateral talks on economic relations next month.

Exclusive: Japan to vet bidders in Toshiba chip sale for national security risks - sources

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Japanese government, fretting over the future of Toshiba Corp's flagship memory chips unit, is prepared to block a sale to bidders it deems a risk to national security, sources said, a stance that gives U.S. suitors a major advantage.

Southwest Airlines cuts outlook for key revenue measure

(Reuters) - Southwest Airlines Co cut its forecast for a key revenue measure on Friday, citing "unexpected softness" in demand for last-minute flight bookings in the second half of February.

China's HNA Group would like to hike Deutsche Bank stake: sources

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Chinese conglomerate HNA Group would like to increase its stake of 3 percent in Germany's Deutsche Bank , two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

After Snap IPO, U.S. regulator questions unequal voting rights

WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - One of two current members of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission raised questions on Thursday for companies like Snap Inc that offer shareholders unequal voting rights, saying the agency should "focus on how some innovations may prove detrimental to investors."

Crowded Trades Never End Well: The 2.5 Trillion Dollar Bet On Higher Rates

Via Kevin Muir of The Macro Tourist blog,

Remember a week ago when all the crude oil bulls told us how the massive net speculative position was nothing to worry about? And to be fair, for the longest time they seemed to be right. Crude oil prices were extremely sticky, refusing to budge from their elevated level.

Yet, seemingly out the blue, prices suddenly tumbled $4. The media will try to assign a reason for the decline, but there was no piece of news that was any more bearish than anything from the past couple of weeks.

http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/WTIMar1017.png

Now to be fair, the gigantic net long position in crude oil was slightly more complicated than the headlines indicated. I wrote about the fact that although specs were record net long in terms of contracts, when measured in dollars, or percentage of open interest, the picture wasn't quite so extreme. Yet I cautioned that all of the speculative optimism was a huge red flag (Re-evaluating Crude Oil Spec Positioning).

I am reposting a graph from that piece that shows the extended nature of speculative positioning.

Now The Fun Begins - SNAP Options Start Trading Today

With practically all but the IPO-allocated insiders still under-water, Snap shareholders will be anxiously awaiting today's unleashing of options of the money-burning, user-shrinking 'camera' company.

Not been a fun ride so far...

But it's about to get even more exciting, as Reuters reports, weekly and monthly options contracts on Snap's shares are expected to start trading on Friday, CBOE said last week, once certain regulatory requirements for their listing are met. Snap's options market debut will allow traders to place bets on where they expect the shares to trade in the future.

"I think there will be high demand for Snap options," said Ophir Gottlieb, chief executive of Los Angeles-based Capital Market Laboratories.

"Technology stocks, especially social media stocks, are the kind of companies that really draw a lot of activity from options traders," said David Russell, senior manager at online broker E*Trade Financial Corp (ETFC.O) in Chicago.

The timing of the Snap options listing, coming as it does in the midst of a market-wide slump in volatility, also bodes well. Higher volatility in Snap shares relative to the broader market could offer enticing potential payouts for traders who place bets on sharp price moves.

"The options market in general has been hungry for anything that ...

Sweden's Far-Right Gaining Ground As Social Problems Mount

Via Hans Mathias Moeller of Global Risk Insights,

Sweden's immigration policy may be honourable but has not come without social problems - which in turn herald a political shakeup.

Sweden has accepted more refugees per capita than any other European country. At the height of the European refugee crisis in 2015, Sweden accepted 10,000 refugees per week. Sweden's liberal immigration policy is honourable, but it does not come without problems. As social problems increase, Sweden's far right party, the Sweden Democrats (SD) are gaining territory and will likely be the major winner in the next election.

Failed integration and high immigration equals social problems

Sweden has 53 areas defined as particularly vulnerable areas, vulnerable areas, and risk areas. 15 of these areas are particularly vulnerable and are primarily located in the suburbs of Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmo. The National Operations Department (NOA), part of the Swedish police, defines particularly vulnerable areas as areas where the safety and security situation is difficult or impossible to control. Attacks against police officers are common, particularly during arrests. The most notable outbreak of violence occurred in 2013 when hundreds of cars and schools were set on fire and police were attacked in Stockholm's poorer suburbs. Intimidation of witnesses to crimes that could testify in court is common, which un ...

Frontrunning: March 10



Futures rise as investors count down to jobs report (Reuters)

Individuals Tiptoe Further Into Long-Running Stock Rally (WSJ)

American Diplomats' Comfort With Tillerson Gives Way to Unease (BBG)

EU leaders grope for unity as Britain walks out (Reuters)

Trump's disputes with local governments could create fresh conflicts of interest (Reuters)

May Hears Hard Truths About Brexit as EU Prepares for Talks (BBG)

South Korean President Ousted Amid Bribery Accusations (WSJ)

Park's Ouster Raises Prospect of Reset With China, Kim Jong Un (BBG)

Americans Aren't Filing Their Taxes This Year (BBG)

Italy prosecutors probe editor, ex-managers at top financial daily (Reuters)

It's Not Just America—the Rent Is High Everywhere (BBG)

How Microsoft Is Watching Its Bill

The software giant looks to efficiency as a way to moderate huge gains in capital expenditure.

Oil's Slide Should Grease Stock Picking

Japan is a massive oil importer. Don't assume that means cheaper oil will give growth or equities a big boost.

How to Pick Winners in Hotel Merger Wave

Hotel groups may find themselves besieged, but they are bulking up to go toe-to-toe with online travel agents.

Rail Week Ending 04 March 2017: Rate Of Growth Slowed For Second Week

Week 9 of 2017 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) marginally improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.

Joe Sixpack's Situation in 4Q2016: The Average Joe Is Better Off

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) - which provides insight into the finances of the average household - shows a modest improvement in average household net worth. Our modeled "Joe Sixpack" - who owns a house and has a job, and essentially no other asset - is better off than he was last quarter.

Deep Dive: 'Human capital' stocks come to life as the economy nears full employment

Jay Kaplan of Royce Funds says recruiting and outsourcing companies are benefiting from a tight labor market.

This former NFL star owns a Dunkin' Donuts and recommends franchising for athletes

Tony McGee, who played tight end for the Cincinnati Bengals, now owns two businesses, including a Dunkin' Donuts.

Why it's important for NFL players to start small with their business ventures

What these NFL players learned from attending business school at the University of Michigan.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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