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03Feb2017 Market Update: Wall Street Climbed Higher After The Morning Opening Gap Up, Crude Prices Trading Sideways, But Very Volatile In The High 53 Handle

Written by Gary

Wall Street climbed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 nearing its record high, fueled by robust nonfarm payrolls data and a rise in bank stocks on expectations of simpler regulations. U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 0.77% while U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.70% and Mexico's IPC is up 0.02%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 63%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 58%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 68%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -7.74
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
73%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 71%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 71%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 24.59
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 84.52
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,312

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. CEOs meet with Trump amid tension over travel ban, taxes

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Chief executives of major U.S. companies huddled with President Donald Trump at the White House on Friday as the business community is increasingly split over how to respond to his policies, especially a travel ban announced last week.

Jobs data, bank stocks lift Wall Street higher

(Reuters) - Wall Street climbed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 nearing its record high, fueled by robust nonfarm payrolls data and a rise in bank stocks on expectations of simpler regulations.

U.S. job growth accelerates in January, but wages lag

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring, which likely gives the Trump administration a head start as it seeks to boost the economy and employment.

Canada's Hudson's Bay makes takeover approach for Macy's: sources

(Reuters) - Hudson's Bay Co has made a takeover approach for retail chain Macy's Inc, according to people familiar with the matter, in a deal that would push the Canadian department store operator deeper into the U.S. market.

White House says will work with Congress to fix Dodd-Frank law

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House said on Friday that it will continue to work with the Republican-controlled U.S. Congress on a "legislative piece" to address the Dodd-Frank financial regulation law.

Exclusive: Boeing's space taxis to use more than 600 3D-printed parts

SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co has hired a small company to make about 600 3D-printed parts for its Starliner space taxis, meaning key components in the United States manned space program are being built with additive manufacturing.

Ex-VW chairman Piech testifies in Winterkorn probe

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen's former Chairman Ferdinand Piech, who left the company following a showdown with ex-Chief Executive Martin Winterkorn in 2015, has testified to prosecutors investigating Winterkorn's involvement in the carmaker's diesel scandal, according to Winterkorn's lawyer.

Amazon shares dip as cloud revenue misses Street; analysts still upbeat

(Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc's shares fell as much as 4.2 percent on Friday after the company missed Wall Street targets for its closely watched cloud computing business.

Republicans kill energy sector disclosure, emissions rules

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Republicans on Friday repealed a securities disclosure rule aimed at curbing corruption at oil, gas and mining companies and voted to ax emissions limits on drilling operations, part of a push to remove Obama-era regulations on the energy industry.

Utah Bill Sets Stage For State Gold Depository, Further Encourages Use Of Metals As Money

Submitted by Mike Maharrey via The Tenth Amendment Center,

A bill introduced in the Utah legislature would build on the state's Legal Tender Act, creating a foundation for further action to encourage the use of gold and silver as money, and take another step toward breaking the Federal Reserve's monopoly on money.

Rep. Ken Ivory (R-West Jordan) introduced House Bill 224 (HB224) on Jan. 27. The legislation would add several provisions to state law designed to encourage the use of gold and silver as legal tender. Passage would set the stage for expansion of gold repositories in the state and authorize further study on several sound money policies.

Specifically, HB224 would authorize the investment of public funds in specie legal tender held in a commercial specie repository. Under existing code, "specie legal tender" means gold or silver coin and bullion. "Commercial specie repository" means an institution that holds or receives deposits of specie legal tender that is located within the state. Practically speaking, passage would give the state the option to hold funds in gold and silver instead of Federal Reserve notes.

The legislation would also direct the State Money Management Council to make rules governing quality criteria for a commercial specie repository, in consultation with the state auditor.

A "GOLD BANK" FOR UTAH

Gov. Greg Abbot

A New Problem For Mexico: Consumer Confidence Crashes To Record Low

While the biggest threat facing Mexico, and its unpopular president Enrique Pena Nieto, in the past month has been President Trump's insistence on building a "Massive Wall", which Mexico would pay for, as well as Trump's threats of renegotiating NAFTA, today we got a fresh reminder that America's neighbor to the south has another looming problem: a rapidly deteriorating economy coupled with surging inflation on the back of the recent 20% price hike for gasoline, which culminated in a record crash in Mexican consumer confidence.

While the whisper number was 84.9, and the survey said 83.5 the actual print came in at an unprecedented 68.5 (69.3 seasonally adjusted) the lowest print on record. Consumer confidence posted a broad based and extraordinarily large 17.9% mom decline in January (-25.7% yoy), and has now declined in 7 of the past 8 months. The aggregate consumer confidence is at the weakest level since the series began to be reported in April 2011.

Significant declines were recorded across all of the five confidence sub-indices. Furthermore, consumers become more negative about both the current and expected personal and, in particular, the overall economic picture. The index measuring the current situation of the individual household posted a 9.7% mom sa decline and the index measuring perceptions of the future situation of the household declined by an even larger 15.6% mom sa. Furthermore, the index assessing consumers' perceptions of the current economic picture posted a large 22.6% mom sa decline and the forward-looking index assessing expectations with regards to the outlook for the economy posted a 23.6% mom sa decline. Finally, the index measuring the current capac ...

Jobs Report: 'No Rate Hike for You' - Gold Concurs

No Rate Hike for You

Here's Chris Barraud's quick analysis of the Unemployment numbers this morning. He is one of the people that MarketSlant follows closely

#US (7) | The unemployment rate, unrounded, ? to 4.780% (vs 4.716% prior) because of a ? in the participation rate (62.9% vs 62.7% prior)

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) February 3, 2017

Here are the rest of his comments on the report as tweeted:

(1) | Nonfarm payrolls rose 227K in December (up 70K compared to December) and above estimates of 180K.
(2) | On the manufacturing front, payrolls increased by 5K while the index of aggregate weekly hours soared 0.3% MoM...
(3) | ...which implies a ? in the January Manufacturing Production (February 15th).
(4) | Wages growth slowed on a monthly basis, ? 0.1% (vs 0.3%e) and bringing the annual rate down to 2.5% from 2.8% in December.
(5) | The stabilization in the workweek (34.4) combined with the ? in payrolls led aggregate hours worked (a proxy for GDP growth)...
(6) | ...to increase by 0.16% MoM (vs +0.40% prior).
(7) | The unemployment rate, unrounded, ? to 4.780% (vs 4.716% prior) because of a ? in the participation rate (62.9% vs 62.7% prior)
(8) | The underemployment rate rose to 9.4% (highest since Oct. 2016) as the...
(9) | ...the number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons increased by 242K.
(10) | All in all, the report looks somehow disappointing and offers room for policy makers to wait before raising rates.

Gold Concurs

US Military Release Video Intel Obtained From Yemen Raid, Show Bomb-Making Lessons

US Central Command has released clips from five longer videos seized in the Jan. 29 raid in Yemen - that left one Navy SEAL dead - showing a small sample of the sort of intelligence information that was obtained in the site exploitation mission against an al-Qa'eda in the Arabian Peninsula staging area, propaganda center, and logistics hub for AQAP's terrorist network this past weekend.

The US CENTCOM Statement reads:

Post-raid analysis has determined that several of the previously announced 14 enemies killed were terrorist network leaders and facilitators. Officials now believe that Sultan al Dhahab and Abd-al-Ra'uf al-Dhahab, two longstanding AQAP operational planners and weapons experts, were among the enemy killed at the scene. The militants were killed during the raid that also cost the life of a U.S. servicemember.

The videos released today are samples of a series of detailed, do-it-yourself lessons intended for aspiring terrorist bomb-makers and included an exhortation to use those techniques to attack the West. The full-length videos, from which these clips were extracted, were taken from a computer seized by U.S. special operations servicemembers during the raid.

The presence of ter ...

U.S. to World: Banking Deregulation Race Back On

Trump administration plans to roll back regulation may put American banks first, but poses a threat to the hard-won health of the world's banking system.

Don't Get Fooled on Wages

The January jobs report suggests the Federal Reserve may be able to wait longer before raising rates again. Investors should be careful about latching onto that idea, though.

Good News for Amgen Is Good News for Biotech

Biotechnology, lately the stock market's laggard, may finally be on the mend.

27 January 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Insignificantly Declines

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 45th week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their inflation indicator this week.

December 2016 Manufacturing New Orders Improve

Written by Steven Hansen

US Census says manufacturing new orders improved. Our analysis agress until you consider inflation. The rolling averages improved.

Players in this year's Super Bowl will keep more of their money because the game's in Houston

Texas is one of the few states that don't have a "jock tax."

Bond Report: Treasury yields turn lower as investors focus on sluggish January wage data

Treasury prices gain ground, pulling yields lower on the day, as investors look past a robust rise in January payrolls to focus on subdued wage growth.

The Ratings Game: Ralph Lauren CEO's departure creates uncertainty about the 'way forward'

Ralph Lauren's third-quarter earnings beat expectations, but were overshadowed by news of the departure of Chief Executive Stefan Larsson.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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