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03Feb2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Points To A Higher Opening, Crude Prices Trading Sideways, US Dollar Climbs Back To The 100's, Financial Reports Mixed This Morning

Written by Gary

US stock market index futures point to a moderately higher opening (SPY +0.4%) this morning while bank shares gain on rescinding Dodd-Frank. Non-farm payrolls were up and the unemployment rate rose.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 0.85% while London's FTSE 100 is up 0.52% and Germany's DAX is up 0.32%.

Looking at the last three columns, the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. CEOs to meet with Trump amid tension over his policies

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump will huddle with chief executives of major U.S. companies on Friday as the business community finds itself increasingly split over how to respond to his policies.

Futures rise ahead on jobs data; bank shares gain

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were up on Friday as investors awaited a crucial employment report to get a steer on the economy, while bank shares added to the upside.

Snap shoots for the sky, promises little in $3 billion IPO pitch

(Reuters) - Snapchat owner Snap Inc shot the opening salvo in its $3 billion initial public offering on Thursday, outlining aggressive expansion plans but offering new investors no say on how the company is run and no promise of profits.

U.S. technology startups panic over immigration ban

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Silicon Valley venture capitalist Kate Mitchell said her startup companies have a message for their employees who are foreign nationals: Don't travel outside the country right now.

Exclusive: Boeing's space taxis to use more than 600 3D-printed parts

SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co has hired a small company to make about 600 3D-printed parts for its Starliner space taxis, meaning key components in the United States manned space program are being built with additive manufacturing.

U.S. job growth seen accelerating in January, wages strong

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely accelerated in January, with wages expected to have increased steadily, suggesting a strong start for the Trump administration as it seeks to boost the economy and employment.

Japan readies package for Trump to help create 700,000 U.S. jobs

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan is putting together a package it says could generate 700,000 U.S. jobs and help create a $450-billion market, to present to U.S. President Donald Trump next week, government sources familiar with the plans said.

Lockheed says didn't seek help from Trump's ex-campaign manager

(Reuters) - Lockheed Martin Corp did not turn to Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump's former campaign manager, and his lobbying firm to steer through the cost dispute around the F-35 fighter plane, a company spokesman said.

Euro may be too weak for Germany but too strong for others

LONDON (Reuters) - In an attack on Germany, U.S. President Donald Trump's top trade adviser said the euro was "grossly undervalued", a charge which may ring true for the German economy but not for the 19-member currency zone as a whole.

Deutsche Bank To Slash Jobs Across Equity, Fixed Income Trading

Having seemingly survived their existential crisis last year, it appears the world's most systemically dangerous bank remains under pressure. Just a day after missing analysts' earnings expectations, Deutsche Bank is set to announce major job cuts across its trading businesses.

As Bloomberg reports, the bank will cut as much as 17 percent of staff in its equities unit and reduce fixed-income headcount by as much as 6 percent, with notices to be served to employees soon, the person said.

Chief Executive Officer John Cryan is cutting 9,000 jobs across the company to raise profitability and capital levels eroded by misconduct costs. Deutsche Bank's market share in fourth-quarter trading fell to the lowest since the financial crisis as Cryan cut assets and clients concerned about the company's finances pulled back.

Debt-trading revenue rose 11 percent to 1.38 billion euros ($1.48 billion), falling short of the 1.68 billion-euro average estimate of 10 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Equity trading revenue, which analysts had expected to be flat, fell 23 percent to 428 million euros.

The equities business is still "flattish to slightly down" in January compared with a year earlier, though the firm's debt-trading business saw a 40 percent increase in the month, Deutsche Bank Chief Financial OfficerMarcus Schenck said Thursday on a call with analysts.

Following chatter of more clie ...

UC Berkeley Alumni, Dr. Michael Savage, Compares Berkeley Rioters to Communist Anarchists Pre-Nazi Germany

Having received his doctorate from UC Berkeley in 1978, Dr. Michael Savage offered a unique perspective today on the trajectory the famed college has taken over the subsequent decades since.

Wistfully, he compared the present day cadre of left wing anarchists, known to us as AntiFA, to communist anarchists in Germany, circa 1920s. The response to the agitators then paved the way for Hitler's brown shirts. The rest, as you know, is history.

But, have we learned from history, posited an inquisitive Savage? For every action is a counter-reaction and so forth. Hence, law and order is the only tonic to quell the present day disorder, fomented and encouraged by democratic politicians, carefully cultivated and organized by left wing groups for the explicit purposes of strong arming those who do not fit into the zeitgeist of their political ideals.

"This was the start of the free speech movement back in the 1960s. Now we complete the arc, from free speech to dead speech.'

Dr. M. Savage, Feb. 2nd, 2017

'Tis a slippery slope. Behold a momentous monolog by the good Dr.

U.N. Official Admits Global Warming Agenda Is Really About Destroying Capitalism

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

A shocking statement was made by a United Nations official Christiana Figueres at a news conference in Brussels.

Figueres admitted that the Global Warming conspiracy set by the U.N.'s Framework Convention on Climate Change, of which she is the executive secretary, has a goal not of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity, but to destroy capitalism. She said very casually:

"This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution."

She even restated that goal ensuring it was not a mistake:

"This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model for the first time in human history."

I was invited to a major political dinner in Washington with the former Chairman of Temple University since I advised the University with respect to its portfolio. We were seated at one of those round table ...

Are CMBS Ghosts of The Past Reviving?

According to Trepp, one of the world's leading providers of global research and analysis for the securities and investment management industry, the delinquency rate for Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) hit a 14-month high-water mark in December 2016. At 5.23%, the rate of CMBS delinquencies was 20 basis points higher than a month earlier (November 2016).

So what does this mean in terms of what industry watchers might expect in the next year
and beyond? Is this a prelude to the CMBS ghosts of 2007 making a revival?

Since the 2007 crisis, some borrowers have seen respite to their dire situations. With their property values on the rise, and their own financial situations set to improve gradually, they are in a much better position today to re-finance upcoming loans.

According to Trepp, over $54.5B of CMBS conduit loans matured in 2015. By 2018, the researcher forecasts nearly $205.2 of such loans to become due. $87.1 billion of that came due in 2016, while over $105.8 billion is set to mature this year - 2017. When we compare these amounts to what matured in 2014 ($37B) and 2015 ($70B), we can see there is a definite uptrend in delinquencies.That uptrend is forecast to dip in 2018, with $12.8 billion up for re-negotiation that year.

While the fortunate few have managed to make a comeback, for many others things don't look too good! Barely able to keep up with their payments; and with scant equity created in the property they own, these unfortunates aren't seeing their property values appreciate either.

For them, as for the general CMBS market, there's more doom to come!

THE SQUEEZE IS ON

For CMBS loan borrowers who are up for re-financing, things could get even tougher. With the massive volume of debt that's coming due, and the spect ...

Trump Reforms Are Stuff of Banker Dreams

President launches regulatory overhaul that should loosen regulation, ease capital rules for banks.

As Storms Gather, China's Growth Formula Gets Trickier

China produces some ugly manufacturing numbers—just as the central bank shifts into tightening mode

Will Snap's IPO Crackle or Pop?

To become the next Facebook instead of the next Twitter, Snap must accelerate user growth and keep monetizing its existing users.

Rail Week Ending 28 January 2017: January 2017 Totals Up Insignificantly From January 2016

Week 4 of 2017 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.

Key Words: 'Bowling Green Massacre' cited by Trump advisor triggers head-scratching

U.S. President Donald Trump's senior adviser Kelleyanne Conway was widely mocked on the internet after referencing an apparent nonexistent terror attack.

FireEye's year of transition ends with another stock plunge and yet more change

A year of massive change in the roller-coaster Wall Street life of FireEye ended with more of the same, including the loss of its chief financial officer and the final departure of a former CEO, but a second consecutive earnings beat could help the beleaguered stock continue to rebound.

Outside the Box: Trump's trade policy is more predictable and less isolationist than critics think

The president's moves so far underscore his strong distrust of the existing multilateral system and preference for bilateral negotiations.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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