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02Feb2017 Market Update: US Stock Market Indexes In Negative Territory, Crude Prices Slipping, Investors Remain Concerned About The Continuation Of The Trump Rally

Written by Gary

Wall Street opened lower, moved into positive territory and is currently slipping back into the red zone again (SPY -0.03%). Crude prices are weakening fractionally as the US dollar moves off the session lows.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 0.17%, while the S&P 500 is leading the IPC lower. They are down 0.05% and 0.02% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 63%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 50%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 68%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -11.25
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
73%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 70%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 70%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 24.63
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 84.65
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,209

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street slips as investors digest Trump's trade comments

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell in late afternoon trading on Thursday, after edging up briefly, as investors turned wary following President Donald Trump's latest protectionist comments.

U.S. labor market tightening, productivity still weak

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to tightening labor market conditions that should support the economy this year.

Exclusive: Snap's secrecy frustrates banks' pursuit of IPO glory

(Reuters) - Some investment banks seeking to be added as underwriters to Snapchat owner Snap Inc's initial public offering registration document have been denied access to review it before it is made public this week, according to people familiar with the matter.

Microsoft asks Trump administration for exception program on immigration orders

(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp on Thursday said it had sent a proposal to U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to create a program to let people from seven predominantly Muslim nations enter and leave the United States on business or family emergency travel if they hold a valid work or student visa and have not committed any crimes.

Starbucks to speed up hiring of veterans amid refugee blowback

(Reuters) - Starbucks Corp , facing backlash from some customers over its plans to hire refugees, said it would speed up its previously stated goal of hiring 10,000 veterans and military spouses by 2018.

Dan Loeb: Trump will make hedge funds great again

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. hedge fund manager Dan Loeb is betting President Donald Trump will be good for investments thanks to his planned mix of tax cuts, reduced regulation and infrastructure spending.

Madoff victims' recovery tops $9.7 billion with new payout

(Reuters) - Bernard Madoff's victims will soon recoup another $252 million from the trustee unwinding the swindler's firm, boosting their total recovery to $9.72 billion.

Micron CEO Mark Durcan to retire

(Reuters) - Chipmaker Micron Technology Inc said Chief Executive Mark Durcan would retire.

Pfizer hires JPMorgan to weigh sale of some drugs: Bloomberg

(Reuters) - Pfizer Inc is exploring sale of a group of treatments in cardiology, urology and primary care, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Albert Edwards: "Agree With Trump Or Not, He Seems Determined To Enact What He Promised"

The latest strategist to step into the pro/anti-Trump fray, is one of the original permabears, SocGen's Albert Edwards, who in a Thursday note sided with Dan Loeb, and wrote that while the Donald Administration "might be a neo-liberal nightmare" if one strips away some of his more controversial rhetoric on immigration, "a lot of what he says on the economic front makes perfect sense to me."

Edwards is also happy that unlike his predecessors, while crass and unpolished, Donald Trump continues to arouse "as much passion in office as he did on the campaign trail" and while one can "agree with him or not, unlike most politicians he seems determined to actually enact the things he promised the electorate." That said, Edwards points out something we warned back in November, namely that while until the last couple of weeks "the markets had embraced only the ?good? bits of his campaign rhetoric", only now are they reappraising, among other things, the likelihood of a trade war, with the Administration turning on Germany."

The best example of this was Ray Dalio's take in a recent Daily Observation note, in which the formerly enthusiastic hedge fund manager, warned that "we are now in a period of time when how this balance tilts will be more important to the economy, markets, and our well-beings than normally dominant drivers such as central bank policies," Dalio wrote. The duo added that the current investment environment is marked by "exceptional uncertainty" and recommended avoiding concentrated bets, and holding easy-to-sell assets.

Edwards goes on to agree with Trump that "we have long written on these pages that Germany is one of the biggest currency manipulators in the world. Germany aggressively ...

Russian Stocks Spike After Treasury Eases Sanctions

As we detailed earlier, the US Treasury eased some sanctions against Russia (specifically the FSB), and it seems the equity markets just caught on as Russia ETFs are jumping on extremely heavy volume...

A Simple Reason to Hold Complicated MetLife

Rising rates are a long-term positive for MetLife despite near-term uncertainty.

The Economy's People Problem

Productivity data are weak again, showing the challenges faced by President Trump to boost growth, especially if he cuts immigration.

Merck Stock Rally Still Looks Healthy

Blockbuster sales of Merck's cancer treatment Keytruda are likely on the way.

4Q2016 (Preliminary): Headline Productivity Improves But Labor Costs Rising Faster

Written by Steven Hansen

A simple summary of the headlines for this release is that the growth of productivity improved while the labor costs grew faster than productivity (headline quarter-over-quarter analysis). The year-over-year analysis is consistent with costs growing faster than productivity.

28 January 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Marginally Worsens

The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 250 K to 258 K (consensus 253,000), and the Department of Labor reported 246,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 245,750 (reported last week as 245,500) to 248,000. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

The Tell: Goldman defends its strong-dollar call, even as buck weakens

One of Goldman Sachs Group's top trades of 2017 has gotten off to a rough start. But the storied investment bank's strategists aren't ready to throw in the towel just yet.

Moneyism: Twins are twice as nice, but five times as expensive, even if you're Beyoncé

Beyoncé, Jay-Z, and other parents of multiples pay way more for their pregnancies

Disney's 'Beauty and the Beast' ticket presales rival superhero films

Tickets for Walt Disney Co.'s live-action reimagining of the famed fairy tale went on sale on Monday and online movie ticket retailer Fandango says sales are pacing a superhero blockbuster.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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