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25Jan2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street To Open Higher, DOW 20 K Level Again In Focus, Crude Prices Lower Ahead Of Reports On US Stockpiles, Risk-appetite On, Look For Volatility

Written by Gary

US stock index futures are pointing to a moderately higher opening (SPY +0.4%) as investors began to refocus on the 20 K for the DOW. Crude prices have edged lower, increase in risk-appetite has dampened the appeal of gold.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is up 1.62% while France's CAC 40 is up 1.04% and London's FTSE 100 is up 0.47%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

S&P 500 futures hit record high as Trump rally returns

(Reuters) - S&P 500 index futures hit a record intraday high on Wednesday, pointing to a revival of the post-election rally, encouraged by President Donald Trump's push for pro-growth policies.

U.S. agency calls for safer lithium-ion batteries after Samsung fires

(Reuters) - Safety standards for lithium-ion batteries need to be modernized following a massive recall of Samsung Electronics Co Ltd phones after faulty batteries caused fires, a U.S. government agency said on Tuesday.

Cisco to buy AppDynamics for $3.7 billion in growth push

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Cisco Systems Inc said on Tuesday that it agreed to buy U.S. business software company AppDynamics Inc for about $3.7 billion, making one of its largest deals of recent years as it searches for growth beyond its core networking business.

Boeing sets cash flow record, lifts 2017 forecast for jet output

(Reuters) - Boeing Co said on Wednesday it expects to deliver between 760 and 765 commercial aircraft in 2017, topping 748 deliveries in 2016.

Apple says dialogue with India on local expansion plans was 'constructive'

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Apple Inc said on Wednesday it appreciates the open and constructive dialogue that it held with Indian officials, around the expansion of its local operations in the country.

United Tech stands by 2017 forecast on demand for jet engines

(Reuters) - United Technologies Corp posted a fourth-quarter profit, compared with a year-ago loss, and reiterated its 2017 profit and sales forecasts, buoyed by demand for Pratt & Whitney aircraft engines and parts for the aerospace industry.

Aetna, Humana to consider all options after court blocks merger

(Reuters) - Aetna and Humana would consider all available options for their proposed $34 billion merger, the two U.S. health insurers said on Tuesday, a day after a court ruled against the deal due to fears it would lower competition.

Takata shares rise by daily limit, up 18.2 percent

TOKYO (Reuters) - Shares in Japanese air bag manufacturer Takata Corp gained 18.2 percent on Wednesday, rising by a daily limit of 80 yen to 519 yen ($4.56), stemming four days of steep decline brought about by investor fear of a court-mediated bankruptcy.

Toshiba shares slip ahead of chip business sale approval

TOKYO (Reuters) - Shares of Toshiba Corp slipped in early trading on Wednesday as the company prepared to give the nod to spinning off its chip business.

What Is Behind Today's Market Euphoria: JPM Explains

With the Dow Jones set to open just 15 points away from 20,000, and likely to cross the key psychological threshold, here is one explanation for the overnight euphoria from JPM's Adam Crisafully.

Market update - the solid US trading from Tues translated into gains across Asia and (so far) in Europe. As far as actual incremental news, there wasn't too much overnight although the big-cap earnings reports were mostly solid (highlights include Santander, STX, and TXN) while Japan's Dec exports topped expectations. On the political front, Trump will make a series of immigration/national security announcements today but investors are still focused on the "Big 3" of tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure spending.

Investors became very enthused about the infrastructure spending angle of the Trump agenda on Tues following Schumer's $1T bill and the oil pipeline Oval Office media events but in reality the narrative around this topic changed very little in the last 36 hours (it remains the case in general that the gap between reality and expectations w/regards to Washington is still too large and this is a market risk).

Keep in mind that while everyone is focused on earnings and politics, the Fed will reassert itself back into the narrative soon - the first FOMC decision of the year hits Wed 2/1, the Jan jobs report is Fri 2/3, Yellen will prob. conduct her semiannual testimony in early/mid-Feb, and Trump could soon announce his Fed nominees (including two board of governors and the vice chair of bank regulation).

And the macro big picture:

US macro update - the rally remains a function of growth and Was ...

Frontrunning: January 25



Reignited 'Trump trades' help world stocks hit 19-month high (Reuters)

Trump moving forward with border wall, weighs refugee cuts (AP)

Trump's 'America First' lets China play world leader (Reuters)

High Tariffs on China, Mexico Wouldn't Guarantee U.S. Jobs (WSJ)

Trump warns he's ready to 'send in the Feds' to Chicago (AP)

How Russia sold its oil jewel: without saying who bought it (Reuters)

UK PM May says she will publish 'White Paper' setting out Brexit plan (Reuters)

UBS Says Dollar to 'Roll Over' Amid Trump Spending, Tax Cuts (BBG)

Wall Street Is Hiring ... in Florida (BBG)

Beijing's Anti-Pollution Effort Falls Hard on Villagers Used to Cheap Coal (WSJ)

'1984' sales soar after Trump claims, 'alternative facts' (AP)

Cisco snaps up AppDynamics for $3.7B right before its IPO ...

These Are The Biggest Losers If Trade War Breaks Out Between The US And China

With China growing increasingly nervous about the prospect of a trade war with the US, the nation's official mouthpiece People's Daily warned that a trade war between China and the United States would harm both countries, reflecting concerns over Trump's stated protectionist, anti-China stance.

"If a trade war developed between the two countries, both China and the U.S. would be negatively impacted," the newspaper said in a commentary. "In the end neither side would win, it would bring harm to other countries and that harm would be brought to others without benefits to the U.S. or China."

As both China and the U.S. are major players in global supply chains and value chains, numerous countries would be gravely impacted from a trade war, the article added.

"At present, China and the U.S. are bound together by trade, investment, finance and other spheres," the article quoted Zhang Jianping, head of the Research Center for Regional Cooperation under China's Ministry of Commerce, as saying.

"As the two largest economies in the world, maintaining positive trade relations is beneficial both to China and the U.S. and also the global economy."

Trump has pledged to use "every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes" with China, including tariffs. He once broached a tax of 45 percent on Chinese imports, then denied bringing it up. After the presidential inauguration Jan. 20, the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper run by the Communist Party, said Trump's speech signaled a "high possibility" of trade frictions.

Meanwhile, as . . .

Trump Profit Boom? Executives Stay Mum

Investors and analysts are predicting strong profit growth under the new presidential administration, but company executives are more cautious.

Gucci Looks Like Fashionable Pick for Luxury Rebound

Brands can no longer count on store rollouts and timeless appeal to drive growth.

Verizon Can't Find the Next Big Thing

Verizon doesn't need to follow AT&T, but its earnings show it needs to chart a growth path away from wireless.

Trucking Data Again Mixed In December 2016

Written by Steven Hansen

Truck shipments declined or improved in December - depending on the data source. Trucking, like rail, may be finally showing signs of life.

Key Words: House Democrat Elijah Cummings says Trump is worried about the wrong sort of voter transgression

Congressman hopes to turn Trump's attention from an unsubstantiated claim that as many as 5 million illegal votes were cast Nov. 8, keeping Trump from winning the popular vote against Hillary Clinton, and toward, instead, reported attempts to harass and inconvenience legal voters, including state efforts to roll back provisions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Outside the Box: Trump's 'alternative facts' are a real threat to your rights

Americans need to hold media and politicians accountable to the truth, writes Chris Edelson.

Brexit heads to parliament — what happens next?

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is pushing ahead with her Brexit plans after the government lost a court ruling centered around kicking off the process to take the U.K. out of the European Union. Here's a look at what's next.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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