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20Jan2017 Market Close: U.S. Stocks Were Up But Off Their Highs Of The Session, Crude Prices Continue To Climb, Next Week May Be Volatile

Written by Gary

Wall Street closed up (SPY +0.3%) as President Trump makes his way from the Capitol Building to the White House. Crude prices remained higher as the UD dollar continues to slip. U.S. President reinforced worries for some investors about future trade policies.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street off day's best levels after Trump inaugural speech

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were up but off their best levels of the session on Friday afternoon as Donald Trump's inaugural speech as U.S. President reinforced worries for some investors about future trade policies.

U.S. bankers tell Europeans to think positively on Trump

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - U.S. bankers, buoyed by a resurgence in profits, are advising their counterparts in Europe to think positively about the new administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Morgan Stanley, Citi plan Brexit job moves: sources

LONDON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - U.S. banks Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have identified many of the roles that will need to be moved from Britain following its exit from the European Union, sources involved in the processes told Reuters.

Investment Focus: History suggests Trump month will be stocks down, dollar up

LONDON (Reuters) - For financial markets, the Trump era begins on Monday, and if history is any guide the following month should be a rocky one for Wall Street but positive for the dollar.

AIG to pay Buffett's Berkshire about $10 billion in insurance deal

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc has agreed to pay roughly $10.2 billion to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc to take on many long-term risks on U.S. commercial insurance policies it has already written.

Fed's Williams says need to raise rates before economy overshoots

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Friday repeated his view that the U.S. central bank needs to reduce monetary stimulus before the economy overshoots the Fed's employment and inflation goals and the Fed has to "slam on the brakes."

Canada's Competition Bureau reaches deal with Apple, publishers

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's business competition watchdog said on Friday it had reached an agreement with Apple Inc and three major e-book publishers that will allow retailers to offer discounts to customers.

Maverick Capital eyes rebound on bets Trump may roil Wall Street

BOSTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's policies could lead to more violent stock market movements, something prominent hedge fund manager Lee Ainslie said could help his portfolio rebound after a lousy 2016.

Goldman Sachs rejects Indonesian businessman's $1.1 billion claim over share trade

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has rejected allegations by an Indonesian businessman who is seeking $1.1 billion in damages from the U.S. bank for making what he called "unlawful" trades in the shares of a property firm.

"The Potential Problems Are As Follows" - How The Bull Market Could End According To Credit Suisse

With Trump now officially US president amid concerns that a "sell the inauguration" sentiment may emerge at any moment, it was an appropriate moment for Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Garthwaite to release his report listing the 10 possible ways in which the bank's central views (and often the consensus) could be surprised. Below the bank highlights the factors its thinks could surprise adversely in 2017, together with its core views.

The quick summary:



The S&P hits 2,500 before falling back to 2,000. Core view: the S&P 500 rises to 2,350 mid-year before falling to 2,300.

EURUSD hits 0.90, before strengthening to end the year at 1.20. Core view: Credit Suisse's house view sees the euro declining to 1.03 on a three-month view and down to 1.00 on a 12-month view.

Chinese GDP growth slows to 5% and with it the RmB weakens to 8. Core view: 6.8% GDP growth in 2017 and the RmB weakens to 7.33 at year-end.

A Le Pen victory in France's presidential election. Core view: Francois Fillon becomes president.

European defensives outperform by 15%. Core view: we are a small underweight of defensives, though we did add to them in our Outlook.

President Trump's policies disappoint the market. Core view: corporate taxes will be cut, inflation expectations rise and protectionist policies toned down.

The oil price hits $75pb by end 2017. Core view: The oil price will rise to $62 by the end of the year.

The Nikkei rises to 25,000. Core view: we have a mid-year target for the Nikkei of 20,500.

The European pharma sector underperforms by another 10%. Core view: we are overweight pharma and believe it can outperform modestly from Q2 this year.

US 10-year Treasury yields hit 4%. Core view: CS US rates strategists ha ...

Trump's Inauguration Live Stream

Live Feeds From Washington

CSpan (after the jump)

Fox News (after the jump)

CNN:

Preview Of The Event

The day is finally here: the long and turbulent 2016 election reaches its dramatic conclusion today when Donald Trump is sworn in as the 45th president of the United States. In a ceremony likely to draw 900,000 people, including protesters, Trump and his vice president, Mike Pence, will take the oath of office at noon outside the domed U.S. Capitol, with U.S. Chief Justice John Roberts presiding.

The inauguration by the numbers:


The crowd is expected to be between 700,000 and 900,000. This compares to roughly 1.8 million present during Barack Obama's first inauguration.

28,000 security officials, including secret service and national guard are expected to be present

Trump's inaugural address is expected to last about 20 minutes

The parade will include 8,000 participants representing 40 organizations, including marching bands and veteran groups

There will be 3 official balls, compared to 10 for Obama

99 protest groups have signed up to ...

American Express Feeling the Heat From Competition

The writing is on the wall for American Express, but investors can't see it. Like a lifelong Platinum-card holder oblivious to the better options now available, the company's investors are oddly unconcerned about worsening competition.

Washington Uncertainty May Give GE an Unhealthy Glow

Add General Electric to the list of businesses concerned about the risks from health policy uncertainty. Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt noted on the fourth-quarter earnings conference call that the U.S health-care business faces some risks as a result.

Apparel Industry Enters No-Man's Land Under Trump

Apparel retailers could be among the hardest hit by tax proposals being weighed by the Trump administration.

First IPO of 2017 starts trading during Trump inauguration

In the midst of the presidential inauguration, an oil company quietly debuted on the public market, marking the first company to go public in 2017.

Market Extra: These are the currencies most sensitive to a Trump presidency

The reaction to the day Donald Trump has been sworn in as the 45th President of the United States, was the most pronounced in Mexican peso, which rallied after Trump's inauguration speech didn't specifically mention Mexico

Market Extra: President Donald Trump is set to unleash a cascade of stock-market anxiety

The day of reckoning for the Wall Street is here. Donald Trump has been sworn in as leader of the free world and the level of consternation in the market is palpable.

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Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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