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20Jan2017 Pre-Market Commentary: US Stock Future Indexes Higher Ahead Of Inauguration, WTI Crude Testing 53 Handle, Blue-chip Earnings Are Topping Estimates

Written by Gary

Wall Street futures pointed to a fractionally higher open (SPY +042%). The US Dollar strengthens ahead of Donald's inauguration and Oil has risen more than 1%. Donald Trump is about to become the President of the USA and the world is watching to see his first actions in office.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed today. The CAC 40 is up 0.31% while the DAX gains 0.05%. The FTSE 100 is off 0.06%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Futures rise ahead of Trump's inauguration

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures treaded water on Friday ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as the 45th U.S. President.

Trumponomics may be wrong medicine for U.S. economy today

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Tax cuts, deregulation and more federal spending advocated by the incoming Trump administration are a classic remedy for economic stagnation and long unemployment lines.

ChemChina seeks U.S. anti-trust approval for Syngenta deal

BEIJING (Reuters) - China National Chemical Corp [CNNCC.UL], or ChemChina, said on Friday it has sought the U.S. anti-trust regulator's approval for its planned $43 billion acquisition of Swiss crop protection and seed group Syngenta AG .

GE profit up 36 percent, sales slow; affirms 2017 forecast

(Reuters) - General Electric Co reported a 35.7 percent jump in quarterly profit on Friday, helped by strength in its power and renewable energy businesses, and affirmed its growth and profit forecasts for 2017.

For stock performance under Trump, don't look to prior transitions

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As he is sworn in as the 45th U.S. president on Friday, Donald Trump will mark one of the best performances for the American stock market for any presidential transition period of the modern era.

China-U.S. trade tensions high on Big Oil's worry list

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Oil executives and Middle East producers are concerned that trade tensions between the United States and China risk clouding the outlook for global energy demand growth and a recovery in the price of oil.

South Korea prosecutors summon another Samsung executive

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's special prosecutor's office said on Friday it summoned a Samsung Electronics Co Ltd executive for questioning as it investigates a widening influence-peddling scandal that has embroiled President Park Geun-hye.

P&G profit and sales beat Wall Street estimates

(Reuters) - Procter & Gamble Co , maker of Tide detergent and Pampers diapers, reported better-than-expected quarterly sales and profit, helped by demand for its healthcare products.

Fairfax may sell 25 percent of India's ICICI Lombard in up to $1 billion deal: sources

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Fairfax Financial Holdings is in early talks to sell 25 percent of India's largest private general insurer ICICI Lombard in a deal that could fetch up to $1 billion, as the Canadian firm looks to cash out and start a new insurance joint venture, sources familiar with the matter said.

Trump Rally Reverses: US Equity Outflows In 4 of Past 5 Weeks Offset By Gold, Bond Inflows

When looking at the latest weekly fund flows, it is clear that the Trump trade is over if only for the time being. As BofA reports, citing EPFR data, the last week saw the largest precious metal inflows in 5 months ($1.3bn), the 4th consecutive week of bond inflows ($4.5bn), and a week of modest $1.7bn equity inflows, however US stocks saw $2.5 billion in outflows, representing the 4th weekly outflow in the past 5 weeks.

Some highlights from BofA's Michael Hartnett:

Election to Inauguration flows: since the US election, BofAML GWIM ETFs show private clients big buyers of Financials, Materials, Bank Loans, Industrials, TIPS, Value; big sellers of Low-Volatility & Precious Metals

Inauguration reversals: EPFR flows show partial profit-taking in these Trump reflation trades into the inauguration...1st outflows from financials in 17 weeks, 1st government bond inflows in 6 weeks (largest in 6 months), and 1st inflows to precious metals in 10 weeks; we also note 1st outflows from HY funds in 8 weeks; but we also see ongoing inflows to "inflation trades" of materials, TIPS, and (in particular) bank loans; so a "pause" in the Davos Man to Joe Six Pack rotation rather than major reversal

Post-inauguration tactics: meanwhile our Global Flow Trading Rule, which had flirted with a "sell" signal mid-Dec'16, has pulled back from the abyss (inflows to equities & HY currently below the 4-week "sell" thresh ...

Frontrunning: January 20



How Trump Aims to Broadly Reshape Policy (WSJ)

Trump Calls for Unity at Opening Concert as Inaugural Festivities Begin (NYT)

Trump Takes the Reins of a Deeply Divided Nation (BBG)

Washington braces for anti-Trump protests, New Yorkers march (Reuters)

After the Parties, a Protest for the Ages (WSJ)

Voter Anxiety That Fueled Trump's Victory Turns to Hope (WSJ)

Pageantry, protests to mark the start of Trump's presidency (Reuters)

For stock performance under Trump, don't look to prior transitions (Reuters)

Bullion Bulls Have History on Their Side as Trump Takes Helm (BBG)

Yellen Backs Gradual Rate Rises as Fed Not Behind the Curve (BBG)

Doing Business With Putin (BBG)

Floor Caving In on Europe Real Estate Stocks Bashed by Rates (

Full Calendar Of Today's Washington Events

With markets focused on today's events in Washington, culminating with Trump's inaugural speech, here's a look at the key scheduled events for Friday, Jan. 20 (all times Eastern).

What to Watch


Inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump at U.S. Capitol

Friday is a holiday for federal workers in the Washington area, economic data will be delayed

Possible Trump executive actions

Senate confirmation votes on Cabinet nominees

White House


9:45am: President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama host Trump and wife Melania for a tea and a small reception; depart White House for U.S. Capitol at 10:30am

1:10pm: Obama delivers remarks at Joint Base Andrews farewell event

1:40pm: Obama departs Joint Base Andrews for Palm Springs, Calif.

Official Inauguration Events


7am: Presidential Inaugural Prayer Breakfast; Trump International Hotel, Old Postal Pavilion Building, 1100 Pennsylvania Ave. NW

8:30am: Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence to attend worship service hosted by Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies; St. John's Episcopal Church, 16th and H Streets NW

11:30am: Inauguration ceremony begins at West Front of Capitol

Noon: Trump takes oath of office

12:30pm: Inaugural luncheon for members of Congress at Capitol

3pm: Inaugural parade begins

7pm: Presidential Inaugural Committee holds "Commander in Chief's Ball"; Walter E. Washington Convention Center, 801 Mount Vernon Place NW

7pm: Presidential Inaugural Committee hosts "Salute to Our Armed Services ...

S&P Futures, Dollar Rise As World Awaits Trump Inauguration Speech

Global shares were mixed, equity futures, the dollar and crude rose as investors focused their attention on today's inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. president. While the early tone is well bid, some traders anticipate a volatile session, with speculation that a bout of "sell the inauguration" could cap the aging Trump rally, which started with his inauguration.

Despite last night's Yellen speech which was more dovish than her remarks just 24 hours earlier, and which suggested that the US economy is "not overheating", the dollar managed to rebound from overnight losses and was trading 0.2% higher this morning. The early gains came after China reported its first economic expansion in 2 years (conveniently with president Xi in Davos) with GDP rising to 6.8% after quarters of decline.

However for the year, China's GDP growth declined to the slowest pace in 26 years, despite a record debt load and record weak Yuan.

But it will be all about Trump today: tens of thousands of law enforcement officers and miles of barriers were in place in Washington D.C., as officials braced for hundreds of thousands of people planning to celebrate or protest the ...

Mnuchin Hearing Does Little to Clear Trump Fog of Uncertainty

Steven Mnuchin backed away from some of the more extreme policies suggested by president-elect Donald Trump, but the nominee for Treasury secretary also was vague on major areas of economic policy.

China's Economy in 2016 Was a Stimulating Story, But 2017 Looks Stormy

China's leaders envision a pivot away from stimulus, but that could unravel if tensions with Trump escalate.

CSX's New Engineer Could Work Wonders; Sell the Shares Anyway

Canadian Pacific boss Hunter Harrison has an amazing record and could add serious value to CSX, but shareholders would be wise to lock in recent gains.

In One Chart: As Trump pledges to build, here's a list of top infrastructure projects

Infrastructure stocks have been building up in value since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. Here one look at the country's biggest projects.

Outside the Box: There is a better way to fix our broken 'free market' for drugs than negotiating prices

The goal is to lower prices and to ensure drug companies still develop new lifesaving medicines.

Mark Hulbert: The biggest threat to your money now? Ignoring the scent of a bear market

Being a genuinely contrarian investor is a rare quality, but today's stock market demands you go against the grain, writes Mark Hulbert.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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