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13Jan2017 Market Update: Wall Street Fractionally Higher, WTI Crude Up, US Dollar Down And Some Analysts Are Preparing For A Major Downturn, Who Are We To Believe?

Written by Gary

The major us stock market indexes are mostly in the green (SPY +0.5%). The median regression trend remains down placing a lot of doubt in investors minds if the 'Trump Effect' is going to last. Short-term indicators marginally bullish.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.52% while the S&P 500 gains 0.24%. The Bovespa is off 0.60%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 66%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 60%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 68%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +9.59
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
76%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 71%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 74%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 24.02
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 84
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,229

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Bank profits boost S&P, Nasdaq; consumer stocks weigh on Dow

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq trimmed early gains, but remained higher in early afternoon trading on Friday after strong earnings from large U.S. lenders that bode well for the rest of the earnings season.

Top U.S. bank executives strike positive tone heading into 2017

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Executives of big U.S. banks expressed optimism on Friday about the outlook for 2017 in their first public comments about quarterly earnings since the U.S. presidential election in November.

EU, U.S. strike deal to boost transatlantic insurance market

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union and the United States agreed on Friday to reduce legal and capital barriers to boost the $3 billion transatlantic insurance and reinsurance market.

Trump adviser: TPP 'dead,' will move quickly on bilateral trade deals

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President-elect Donald Trump will not revive his predecessor's stalled Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal in any form, but will quickly pursue bilateral trade agreements, a Trump transition policy adviser said.

Lockheed Martin CEO: Close to deal to lower F-35 costs, add 1,800 jobs

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Lockheed Martin Corp is close to a deal to significantly lower the cost of its F-35 aircraft, its Chief Executive Officer Marillyn Hewson said on Friday following a meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Diesel emissions inquiries widen to Renault and Fiat

PARIS/MILAN (Reuters) - European carmakers were drawn into a widening probe of diesel emissions testing on Friday, with French prosecutors examining Renault and British authorities seeking answers from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV.

OPEC chief confident in commitment, enthusiasm for output cut deal

ABU DHABI (Reuters) - OPEC's Secretary-General has confidence in the commitment of oil producers who agreed to an output cut deal last month to ease a global glut that has depressed crude prices and hurt exporting countries' revenues.

Wells Fargo thinks it has paid back customers as required

(Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co , the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, said on Friday it believes it has reimbursed the customers it needs to in order to comply with at least one of three settlements over a bogus-accounts scandal.

JPMorgan profit climbs 24 percent, beating forecasts, on trading surge

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co reported a 24 percent rise in fourth-quarter profits on Friday, beating analyst expectations, as its Wall Street business benefited from a surge in trading activity following the U.S. election.

Here We Go Again: Syria's Assad Named As Suspect In Chemical Weapons Attack

Back in 2013, the catalyst used by the US to intervene in the Syrian conflict which started in the aftermath of the Arab Spring (which according to some was inspired by CIA intervention), was a YouTube clip allegedly showing a sarin gas attack by Assad troops on his own people in the town of Ghouta, which reportedly led to hundreds of casualties. Subsequently, the video was shown to have been a hoax, but by then it was too late as the US was actively involved in the proxy war, which in the summer of 2013 nearly escalated to a naval conflict between the US and Russia. The war has since continued, although it may be finally tapering now that the Obama administration is on its way out.

However, in a surprising twist perhaps meant to perpetuate the conflict, Reuters today reported that international investigators for the first time suspect President Bashar al-Assad and his brother "are responsible for the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict."

The details:

A joint inquiry for the United Nations and global watchdog the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had previously identified only military units and did not name any commanders or officials.

Now a list has been produced of individuals whom the investigators have linked to a series of chlorine bomb attacks in 2014-15 - including Assad, his younger brother Maher and other high-ranking figures - indicating the decision to use toxic weapons came from the very top, according to a source familiar with the inquiry.

As one would expect, Syrian government official said accusations that government forces had used chemical weapons had "no basis in truth". The government has repeatedly denied using such weapons during the civil war, which is almost six years old, saying all the attacks highlighted by the inquiry were the work of reb ...

Banks Are Dumping - JPMorgan Goes Red

Well that's not supposed to happen...

"awesome" earnings...

"sell the news"?

Someone do something!!!

Just a reminder... no the yield curve is not steeper!!!

And yes - these bank stocks are way over their skis relative to earnings expectations...

Fiat Tumbles (Again) As DOJ Prepares Criminal Emissions Probe

A day after the EPA announced their probe of Fiat Chrysler's alleged "cheating" over diesel emissions tests, the company now faces criminal charges as the US department of Justice has joined the probe.

As Bloomberg reports, Fiat Chrysler is now also under investigation by the U.S. Justice Department over its alleged failure to disclose software that violated emissions standards, according to people familiar with the matter, another legal hurdle for a company already under criminal scrutiny for its sales practices.

The possibility of a criminal action over diesel emissions violations comes after the Environmental Protection Agency said on Thursday it found software in 104,000 Jeep Grand Cherokees and Ram 1500s that allowed the automaker to exceed pollution limits on the road.

The criminal investigation shows the U.S. is pressing ahead on cases of alleged efforts to rig emissions testing in the waning days of the Obama administration. It isn't clear where the inquiry stands.

And the share price is fading back towards yesterday's lows...

The U.S. investigation of Fiat Chrysler involves fewer vehicles than VW, said one of the people, who asked not to be named because the probe is confidential. The U.S. case against VW, which led to criminal charges and $4.3 billion in penalties earlier this week, centered on VW employees' efforts to design a system that would evade U.S. environmental testing and then conspire ...

About That Record Streak Of Gains In The FTSE 100

With the mainstream media crowing proudly of the record 14-day winning-streak in Britain's FTSE 100 stock index (up 18 of the 19 days since The Fed hiked rates), we thought it worth a look at just what is going on in good ol' blighty...

Since the Brits voted for Brexit, the FTSE 100 is up an elite-embarrassing 15.5% and is on an unstoppable charge since The Fed raised rates for the second time in a decade...

However, as the lower panel shows, 20 points of that 15 point gain are due to the collapse in the pound. Hedged back to the US Dollar, investors are actually down 5% since Brexit.

We wonder what kind of orgamsic excitement, CNBC Venezuela would have been screaming about during November of last year...

Never mind that the 'true' value of the Bolivar was hyperinflating to toilet-tissue-levels... a soaring stock market must mean the socialist utopia's economy is doing great, right? or is just about to?

EPA Action Highlights Fiat's Financial Weakness

It's still early in Fiat Chrysler's regulatory drama, but it looks like the company is in a better position versus the regulators than Volkswagen. It's the company's finances that make it vulnerable.

Nintendo May Not Know How the Game Is Played

User base is crucial is crucial in videogames. If Nintendo wants its new Switch system to break the Playstation-Xbox duopoly, it needs to switch its pricing strategy.

China Needs Trade With Trump's America More Than It Admits

China's export growth is lagging behind that of its Asian peers just as other economic drivers are poised to slow

Deep Dive: 28 cheap stocks expected to post the fastest earnings growth in 2018 vs. 2017

Long-term bargains often begin with low price-to-earnings values and high rates of earnings growth.

Deep Dive: 20 dividend stocks with yields up to 7.5% — and these companies are set for sales and earnings gains

A deep dive yields generous income-producing stocks coupled with some downside protection.

Deep Dive: An outperforming portfolio manager recommends a shift to non-U.S. dividend stocks

Overseas blue-chip dividend stocks are better buys now, says Michael Binger of Gradient Investments

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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