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12Jan2017 Market Update: US Stock Market Down, DOW Off Triple Digits, WTI Crude Stabilizes In The 53 Handle, Investors Worried About Reports Of A Looming Recession In The Future

Written by Gary

Wall Street has risen from morning session losses to fractional losses (SPY -0.5%) and continues to trend upwards in a choppy session. Volume is moderately higher than previous sessions, but the regression trend remains in a downward direction.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The Bovespa is up 2.74% while the IPC gains 0.16%. The S&P 500 is off 0.40%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

There will be "trouble for equity markets" if the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moves beyond 3%, warned Jeffrey Gundlach, while another bond king stated 2.6% was the key level to watch. ($TNX Below)

According to Bill Gross, the number is much more important than Dow 20K, the price of oil or dollar strength, as it would signal a bear bond market. The 10-year yield last stood at 2.33%.

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 69%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 54%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 68%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. 26.42
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
75%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 71%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 73%

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX)

ten year note index value

23.34

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 83.51
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,181

Weekly jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 247,000 last week. That came in lower than the 255,000 estimate. The prior week was revised higher by 2,000 to 237,000

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

EPA accuses Fiat Chrysler of excess diesel emissions

NEW YORK/DETROIT (Reuters) - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday accused Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV of illegally using hidden software that allowed significant excess diesel emissions, the result of a probe that stemmed from regulators' investigation of rival Volkswagen AG.

Wall Street set for worst day in 2017 as Trump-trade fizzles

(Reuters) - U.S. stock moved off their session lows around midday on Thursday, but were still set for their worst day this year as the lack of details on economic policy in Donald Trump's speech hit investors optimism and winded a post-election rally.

Yellen had 'super risky' proposal for Fed's 2011 low-rate vow: transcripts

SAN FRANCISCO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Faced with sharply deteriorating economic conditions in 2011 after ending their second bond-buying program, Federal Reserve policymakers made an unprecedented bid to shore up the recovery by promising to keep rates low until at least mid-2013.

Ford expands Takata air bag recall, now affects three million vehicles

DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co said on Thursday it will recall about 816,000 vehicles as it widened previous actions affecting models with Takata Corp air bags.

AT&T chief executive, Trump meet amid planned Time Warner merger

NEW YORK (Reuters) - AT&T Chief Executive Officer Randall Stephenson had an hour-long meeting in New York on Thursday with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has opposed the company's planned acquisition of Time Warner Inc .

Amazon announces U.S. hiring spree

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc on Thursday said it plans to create more than 100,000 jobs in the United States, from software development to warehouse work, becoming the latest company to boast a hiring spree since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November.

Trump wades in on flap over L.L. Bean boycott threats

BOSTON (Reuters) - Donald Trump on Thursday tweeted his support of Maine catalog retailer L.L. Bean after an activist group opposed to the U.S. president-elect called for a boycott of the company.

Weekly jobless claims rise; import prices push higher

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, pointing to a tightening labor market that is starting to spur faster wage growth.

Saudis cut oil output to lowest in two years, pledge further reductions

ABU DHABI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia has cut oil output to its lowest in almost two years, its energy minister said on Thursday, as the world's largest oil exporter leads OPEC's drive to eradicate a global glut and prop up prices.

Kellyanne Conways Discusses The "Trump Effect" On Economy

Earlier this morning, Kellyanne Conway appeared on Bloomberg to discuss Trump's economic policies regarding everything from job creation to tax cuts, energy investment, infrastructure spending, Obamacare and China. Of course, she started by taking the opportunity to boast about the "Trump Effect" that has already resulted in manufacturing jobs coming back to the United States and record high-er stock prices.

"First of all, you already see the Trump effect. You see that manufacturing jobs are already coming back to the U.S., or staying here. Plans to build factories in Mexico, to ship jobs over the border there, take them away from hardworking Americans have stopped. That's the Trump effect."

"You see that the stock market loves that fact that he was elected. We've had record highs over a number of days."

After the brief commercial introduction, Conway addressed Trump's plans to "roll back corrosive regulations" that have suffocated job creation, lower taxes across the board and work with companies to develop America's energy resources "in a responsible and profitable way for all of us."

"His job creation plan includes a number of things. First of all, it's just rolling back some of these corrosive regulations. We hear from business owners and aspiring business owners daily that it's the regulatory framework that is suffocating them."

"In addition, he has a very ambitious, very doable tax relief plan. He will cr ...

Escalating Real Estate Taxes Will Cause The Next Housing Crisis (Video)

By EconMatters

We check out the Real Estate taxes across the country at various price points for homes, and it is obvious that local and state governments have a spending problem that they expect home owners to fund through these revenue raising vehicles. There are several drivers already in place for the next housing crisis. The Baby Boomers downsizing and moving into managed care facilities, unaffordable real estate relative to incomes (especially on the two coasts), Rising Real Estate Taxes and Total Home Ownership Costs, Rising Interest Rates, Inflation, and the end of the current business cycle.

EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter |

13 Contrarian Economic Predictions For 2017

Submitted by Jared 'The 10th Man' Dillian via MauldinEconomics.com,

Everyone likes to compile lists of predictions for the new year.

I don't.

Did you ever notice that when you look at all the failed predictions in any given December, what ended up happening was the opposite of what everyone predicted?

Contrarian Economic Predictions

Given that most predictions end up being wrong, why not just take a look at what passes for conventional wisdom and do the opposite?

Warning: many of these involve Trump.

1. Trump is going to nuke somebody in 2017

It is true that Trump wants to increase, rather than decrease, our nuclear capabilities, which runs pretty much counter to anybody's idea of what constitutes peaceful behavior in 2017.

The interesting thing about the nuclear threat is that as the popular perception of it has waned since the Cold War, the actual nuclear threat has increased as the number of nuclear weapons has declined.

What if the opposite happens—what if peace breaks out all over in 2017? And what if it is because of Trump?

2. Trump's billionaire cabinet is going to turn the United States into a vast plutocracy

The interesting thing is that inequality massively increased under Obama, who was allegedly concerned about the poor. Trump seems concerned about the rich—what if the opposite happens? What if inequality decreases?

There are a lot of good reasons why this would happen, particularly the composition of the Federal Reserve, which is about to get more hawkish no matter what happens. ...

Gen. Mattis: "Russia Is The Principal Threat To US Security"

The cold war is officially back.

The Senate Armed Services Committee is currently hearing the testimony of retired Marine General James Mattis, picked by Donald Trump to take over the Department of Defense.

Mattis retired from the US Marine Corps in 2013 after serving as the 11th commander of US Central Command, replacing General David Petraeus as the overseer of US operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan. His appointment requires a congressional waiver because federal law states that service members must wait seven years after retiring from active duty before they can hold senior civilian defense positions.

As the WSJ notes, "so far, there is no sign that he will face any resistance on for his Senate confirmation. He's winning a fair amount of praise from Democrats. It this continues to hold, he could have one of the smoothest confirmation votes of any Trump administration nominee."

"Our Armed Forces must remain the best led, best equipped, and most ready force in the world," Mattis told the Senate. "We must also embrace our international alliances and security partnerships. History is clear: nations with strong allies thrive and those without them wither."

"My watchwords will be solvency and security in providing for the protection of our people and the survival of our freedoms," Mattis said. "America has two fundamental powers. One is intimidation," Mattis told Senator Gary Peters (D-Michigan). "The other power, which we've used less in the last 20 years, is the power of inspiration." The US should not be turning to military power as the answer to all of its concerns around the world, the retired Marine general added.

Here are some of the key highlights so far:

Russia Is "Principal Threat" To US Security

While much of the hearing has so far been witho ...

Bank Earnings: Why This Time Is Different

Bank shares may be due for a pullback, but their long-term prospects are strong.

Big-Bank Earnings: What Not to Look At

This financial metric large lenders are touting in their earnings releases can be deceiving.

Apple's Show Would Need to Go On

Apple's limited efforts in original programming pose little risk but are unlikely to stay small.

Earnings Outlook: J.P. Morgan earnings: Expect a strong trading quarter and improved credit markets

Like its peers, J.P. Morgan has seen its stock rally in the wake of the November presidential election on expectations for a scaling back of post-crisis regulations.

Americans still prefer paper when it comes to these products

People are holding out when it comes to handwritten notes and other paper products.

Earnings Outlook: The Trump question and 4 other things to know about this earnings season

Expect the president-elect to be a major focus of conference calls this earnings season as companies brace for possible tax reform, the scaling back of regulations and a tax holiday for cash held overseas.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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