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06Jan2017 Market Update: Wall Street Higher DOW Close To 20K, But No Cigar, Crude Volatile, US Dollar Stronger, Jobs Report Solid Say Analysts

Written by Gary

Modest gains on Wall Street pushed the S&P 500 (SPY +0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite to record levels, while the Dow was trading within a mere 0.37 points (19,999.63) from the elusive 20K mark. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.8% was the best performer.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.53%, while the IPC is leading the Bovespa lower. They are down 1.31% and 0.96% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 70%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 69%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 67%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +31.40
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
79%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 71%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 72%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 24.16
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 83.47
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,256

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Dow comes within 1 point of 20,000; indexes at records

(Reuters) - The Dow came within a hair's breadth of hitting 20,000 for the first time ever on Friday as Wall Street staged a swift recovery, helped by technology stocks.

Job growth slows, but wages rebound strongly

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment increased less than expected in December but a rebound in wages pointed to sustained labor market momentum that sets up the economy for stronger growth and further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this year.

Volkswagen, Justice Dept. nearing $3 billion agreement to resolve diesel allegations

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Volkswagen AG and the U.S. Justice Department are nearing an agreement to resolve the government's civil and criminal investigations that would require the German automaker to pay a penalty of more than $3 billion, sources briefed on the talks said on Friday.

AT&T says Time Warner purchase could avoid FCC scrutiny

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - AT&T Inc expects to be able to bypass a powerful telecommunications regulator in its planned $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc , the companies said in regulatory filings on Friday.

As Trump targets Toyota over Mexico, Nissan faces bigger risk

TOKYO (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened Toyota Motor Corp over its Mexican-built cars, but the biggest risk from a punitive tariff would be for its compatriot Nissan Motor Co , the largest automaker operating in the country.

Boeing falls short on 2016 orders; deliveries hit target

SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co fell 80 planes short of its goal for new orders in 2016, but likely clinched the title of world's biggest planemaker for another year.

Battered bitcoin slides another 12 percent after China warning

LONDON (Reuters) - Bitcoin plunged by as much as 12 percent on Friday after China's central bank urged investors to take a rational and cautious approach to investing in the digital currency, which is on track for its heaviest two-day drop in two years.

Exclusive: Iran capitalizes on OPEC oil cut to sell millions of barrels - sources

LONDON (Reuters) - Iran has sold more than 13 million barrels of oil that it had long held on tankers at sea, capitalizing on an OPEC output cut deal from which it is exempted to regain market share and court new buyers, according to industry sources and data.

Canada's competition watchdog closes two-year Apple probe

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's Competition Bureau on Friday said it had not found sufficient evidence that Apple Inc had engaged in anti-competitive conduct, closing a two-year investigation into the iPhone maker.

US Oil Rig Count Rises To 1 Year Highs

US oil rig counts have now risen for 30 of th elast 32 weeks (up 4 to 529 today) - the highest in a year...

Following lagged oil prices and leading US crude production higher...

While the market continues to ignore this data (for now), we note that if the codependence remains, then OPEC will need to slash output further to balance the market as US shale output is not dropping any time soon.

Hundreds Of US Tanks Arrive In Europe To Support NATO Anti-Russian Buildup

As we reported yesterday, Lithuania confirmed the presence of U.S. special forces inside its territory, stating the deployment's purpose is to train local forces and act as a deterrent against Russian aggression. Supposedly, the move is in response to a "escalation" by Vladimir Putin, who has been deploying nuke-ready missiles in the Russian province of Kaliningrad located in the heart of central Europe. This move has prompted the neighboring Baltic states to become "highly concerned" about Russian military activity.

Furthermore, sometime during the spring of 2017, NATO is expected to send battalions of 800 to 1,200 troops to each of the Baltic States and Poland. The mainstream media has even dubbed NATO's recent buildup the alliance's "biggest military buildup on Russia's borders since the Cold War." Even Great Britain will be sending fighter jets, as well as troops to Romania in order to counter Russia in the region.

Over the last several years, Russia has made it abundantly clear in the past that its deployment of missiles is a deterrent against NATO expansion along its borders, in what is effectively a cat-and-mouse game that continues to be played with catastrophic consequences, and which neither side can win.

Meanwhile, as part of the latest conventional arms race, on Friday hundreds of U.S. tanks, trucks and other military equipment arrived by ship in Germany to be transported by ...

Is Liberal Democracy An Endangered Species?

Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

"As we begin 2017, the most urgent threat to liberal democracy is not autocracy," writes William Galston of The Wall Street Journal, "it is illiberal democracy."

Galston's diagnosis is not wrong, and his alarm is not misplaced.

Yet why does America's great export, liberal democracy, which appeared to be the future of the West if not of mankind at the Cold War's end, now appear to be a church with a shrinking congregation?

Why is liberal democracy losing its appeal?

A front-page story about France's presidential election, in the same day's Journal, suggests an answer.

In the final round next May, the French election is likely to come down to a choice of Marine Le Pen or Francois Fillon.

Le Pen is the "let France be France" candidate of the National Front. Fillon is a traditionalist Catholic from northwest France, home to the martyred resistance of the Revolution — the legendary Vendee.

Fillon won practicing and nonpracticing Catholics alike by a landslide, and took 3 in 5 votes of those professing other faiths.

Le Pen wants France to secede from the EU and move closer to Vladimir Putin's Russia. The five million Arabs and Muslims currently in France, the prospective arrival of millions more, and recent Islamic terrorist atrocities have all propelled her candidacy.

Fillon succeeded in his primary by identifying himself as a man of Catholic beliefs and values and an opponent of same-sex marriage and abortion. He does not repudiate secularism, but believes tha ...

Angry Trump Demands Congressional Probe Into NBC Leak Of Top Secret Intelligence Report

On Thursday evening, during one of his latest Tweetstorms, Trump criticized leaks to several media outlets detailing contents of the classified Russian hacking report which Trump is set to go over any minute.

The leaks came before Trump's own briefing on those details by the intelligence community. The 50-page report was delivered to US President Barack Obama on Thursday, and is to be delivered to President-elect Donald Trump on Friday by top intelligence officials, including Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and CIA Director John Brennan, the Washington Post reports, one of several outlets that were given priority over the president-elect in learning the details of the document. CNN and NBC News also reported on the classified report, sparking outrage from Trump.

"How did NBC get 'an exclusive look into the top secret report he (Obama) was presented?' Who gave them this report and why? Politics!" Trump said in a tweet.

How did NBC get "an exclusive look into the top secret report he (Obama) was presented?" Who gave them this report and why? Politics!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 6, 2017

Then, moments ago, following his interview with the NYT this morning in which he suggested that the storm surrounding Russian hacking during the presidential campaign is "a political witch hunt" being carried out by his adversaries, who he said were embarrassed by their loss to him in the election last year, and just prior to the debriefing by US intelligence agencies meant to prove to Trump once and for all that Putin was indeed responsible for his election, an angry Trump doubled down and tweeted that he is "asking the chairs of the House and Senate committees to investigate top secret intelligence shared ...

Here's Why Some Retailers Didn't Have Awful Holidays

Retailers' holiday results shed some light on the best way to interpret Heard on the Street's pricing data.

Regeneron Is Down, Not Out

Biotech stock Regeneron should recover from a surprise injunction over a new cholesterol drug.

The Job Market Tries the Fed's Patience

The Federal Reserve might not be able to wait to see what President-elect Donald Trump's policies look like before raising rates.

In One Chart: Trying to figure out if the dollar is overvalued? Check McDonald's

Are you trying to determine whether the dollar's aggressive post election rally has been too much, too fast? A trip to McDonald's might help.

How one U.S. company is addressing China's air pollution problem

A.O. Smith has moved beyond its core water heater business to sell in-home air purification products in China.

Rex Nutting: What's missing in the jobs report? We need more jobs, higher wages

Solid job growth and higher wages show how far we've come since the recession began, but we're not to the promised land yet, writes Rex Nutting.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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