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27Dec2016 Market Update: US Stock Market Is Quiet, Crude Vigorously Testing Resistance, Consumer Confidence Rose In December, Gold Showing Weakness Again

Written by Gary

Wall Street Opened flat and moved marginally higher before sliding towards the unchanged line. Volume is light as expected, WTI crude backed off the $54 handle and the US dollar is volatile. Short-term indicators are uncommitted.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are higher today with shares in Mexico leading the region. The IPC is up 0.41% while U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.26% and Brazil's Bovespa is up 0.16%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 73%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 70%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 67% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +9.12 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
77% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 70% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 70% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 25.71 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 82.80 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors


The Conference Board reports its gauge of with a reading of 113.7 from a upwardly revised reading of 109.4 in November. Economists expected the gauge to rise to 109.0.

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metro areas rose 0.1% in October from the month prior on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. From the same period a year prior, prices saw a 5.1% increase, matching expectations.

Looking at the last three columns, the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Dow nears 20,000, Nasdaq hits record as tech stocks rise

(Reuters) - Wall Street was higher on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average resuming its climb toward 20,000 and the Nasdaq hitting a record as technology and health stocks rose.

U.S. consumers ebullient; home prices gain

(Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence shot to its highest in more than 15 years in December as Americans saw more strength ahead in business conditions, stock prices and the job market following the election of Donald Trump as president in November.

Toshiba flags hit of 'billions of dollars' on U.S. nuclear acquisition

TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp said it may have to book several billion dollars in charges related to a U.S. nuclear power acquisition, a shock warning that sent its stock tumbling 12 percent and rekindled concerns about its accounting acumen.

Amazon says 2016 holiday season 'best-ever'

(Reuters) - Inc said it had its best-ever holiday season, shipping more than one billion items worldwide through its Prime membership program.

U.S. mutual fund trustees feel the heat of investor lawsuits

BOSTON (Reuters) - Before New York's famed 21 Club steakhouse drew attention in November for hosting Donald Trump, the wealthy U.S. president-elect, it quietly fed other public representatives: trustees of Paris-based AXA SA investment funds.

Venezuela says to cut 95,000 bpd crude output in OPEC deal

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela said on Tuesday it will cut 95,000 barrels-per-day of oil production in the New Year in fulfillment of a producers' deal to reduce global output and strengthen prices.

Panasonic to invest over $256 million in Tesla's U.S. plant for solar cells

TOKYO (Reuters) - Panasonic Corp will invest more than 30 billion yen ($256 million) in a New York production facility of Elon Musk's Tesla Motors to make photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules, deepening a partnership of the two companies.

U.S. regulators open investigation on 2009-2011 Ford Fusion

DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. safety regulators are investigating Ford Motor Co's Fusion and Mercury Milan sedans from the 2009 to 2011 model years for brakes that may fail in certain conditions, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Tuesday.

Mexico gasoline prices to rise up to 20.1 percent in January

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican gasoline prices will rise by as much as 20.1 percent next month compared to the highest recorded prices in December, the government said on Tuesday, as part of a program to end years of government-set prices at the pump.

How NOT to hack an election: Russian Hack EXPOSED as Hoax

For those who missed it among the deluge of propaganda, the Russian 'hack' of the election has been exposed as a huge hoax:

A Wikileaks envoy today claims he personally received Clinton campaign emails in Washington D.C. after they were leaked by 'disgusted' whisteblowers - and not hacked by Russia.

Craig Murray, former British ambassador to Uzbekistan and a close associate of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, told that he flew to Washington, D.C. for a clandestine hand-off with one of the email sources in September.

'Neither of [the leaks] came from the Russians,' said Murray in an interview with on Tuesday. 'The source had legal access to the information. The documents came from inside leaks, not hacks.'

His account contradicts directly the version of how thousands of Democratic emails were published before the election being advanced by U.S. intelligence.

For those who have read our book Splitting Pennies - this comes as no surprise. As we explain in the book, the world is manipulated by several large global "Banks" which are also owners of big news outlets that control the flow of information around the world (i.e. Thompson Reuters). The surprise here is that the disinformation campaign goes so deep, it has even fooled senators into voting for a bill to stop Russian propaganda; which - on the surface, every flag waving US senator should agree with. No one wants foreign spies or foreign propaganda influencing the domestic population. ...

ECB Lowers Deutsche Bank's Capital Requirements, Allowing It To Pay Bonuses

While Deutsche Bank has had a generally terrible year, with its stock price plunging to all time lows on capitalization (and, at times, liquidity) concerns following the now concluded episode of its RMBS fine which the bank settled last week for roughly $7 billion of which just over $3 billion in actual cash payments, well below Wall Street's worst case scenario, another far more important open item was whether DB executives and staffers would receive a bonus in a year in which markets seriously wondered if the biggest European bank would get a government bailout.

Here, the the rumormill was in overdrive: in October speculation was rampant was that DB would skip cash bonuses, making payments in shares of non-core units of the bank; other rumors tied bonus payments to the company's share price, while in yet more rumors, some suggested that DB would cancel or even clawback bonuses for/from former executives. In any case, had DB not succeeded in settling its RMBS litigation, it was assured that the German lender would not pay any bonuses to anyone.

So now that that particular episode in the bank's history has been concluded, and the management team got an implicit greenlight to make bonus payments... a new problem emerged: Deutsche would be in further breach of its capital requirement had it made billions in bonus payments.

Fast forward to this morning when the ECB once again rode to the rescue, if not so much of Deutsche Bank the company, then certainly the employees of the German bank, and as

Would Another Corporate Repatriation Tax Holiday Create Jobs? (Spoiler Alert: No)

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via,

Donald Trump wants to lower the corporate tax rate on foreign profits from 35% to 10%.

Would another tax holiday create jobs?

The New York Times says "Not Necessarily"

President-elect Donald J. Trump has said he would like to create a "tax holiday" so that American companies can bring back profit that was generated overseas at a lower rate. In his view, this influx of cash will create jobs.

But corporate boards and executives may have different ideas.

They are likely to use much of the estimated $2 trillion held overseas to acquire businesses in the United States, to buy back their own stock or to pay down debt, say advisers of America's top corporate executives.

Historical Guide

For clues as to whether another tax holiday would create jobs, all one needs to do is investigate Corporate Tax Holiday History.

In 2004, the United States Congress enacted such a tax holiday for U.S. multinational companies, allowing them to repatriate foreign profits to the United States at a 5.25% tax rate.

Under this law, corporations brought $362 billion into the American economy, primarily for the purposes of paying dividends to investors, repurchasing shares, ...

61 Shot, 12 Dead As Bloodiest Christmas In Years Rocks Chicago

The colder weather in the Midwest was supposed to bring with it a reprieve for the police and residents of Chicago from the historic levels of violence that have devastated that city this year. Unfortunately, while the colder weather came the violence never subsided.

According to the Chicago Tribune, 61 people were shot over the long Christmas weekend and as many as 12 of those people have since died from their wounds, a level of holiday violence not seen in Chicago for years. Meanwhile, per the Chicago Police Department, as much as 90% of those wounded over the weekend "had gang affiliations, criminal histories and were pre-identified by the department's strategic subject algorithm as being a potential suspect or victim of gun violence."

The city has seen eight multiple-victim shootings, including two double homicides. One was an attack in the East Chatham neighborhood that left two dead and five others wounded, and an attack in the Austin neighborhood left two dead.

Much of the violence happened in areas "with historical gang conflicts on the south and west side of Chicago," said Anthony Guglielmi, a spokesman for the Chicago Police Department. He also referenced the department's "strategic subject list," which is generated daily from a computerized algorithm and assigns a score from 1 to 500 based on such factors as a person's arrests and the activities of his associates. Those people with a score in the upper 200s or higher are considered in danger of being shot or of shooting someone else.

"Ninety percent of those fatally wounded had gang affiliations, cri ...

Paying to Lend: The Negative-Yield Story of 2016

Bonds have been selling off in recent weeks—but the early 2016 rally that took them into uncharted territory has a legacy.

Surprise Drug Approval Is Holiday Gift for Biogen

Biotech stock Biogen gets a boost from early approval of its spine disorder drug.

The Mystery of Japan's Stagnant Wages

Despite three years of unorthodox stimulus, Japan's wage growth remains slower than expected.

December 2016 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Strengthens

Written by Doug Short / Jill Mislinski

The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through December 15. The headline number of 113.7 was an increase from the final reading of 109.4 for November, an upward revision from 107.1. Today's number was above the consensus of 110.0.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improves In December 2016.

Of the four regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all are in expansion.

Europe Markets: European stocks end slightly higher in first day of post-Christmas trade

Traders said volume was relatively light with no major data or corporate news expected and with London markets still closed Tuesday for the Christmas holiday.

Project Syndicate: Trump's tough China talk fails one key reality check

It is foolish to think that America holds all the cards in this bilateral economic relationship, says Stephen S. Roach.

5 people getting even richer off your New Year's resolutions

Oprah Winfrey and Weight Watchers lead the pack for those making money on Jan. 1.

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