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16Dec2016 Market Update: Wall Street Down, US Dollar Down, Crude Prices UP, Short-term Indicators Turning Bearish

Written by Gary

Is Wall Street taking a breather or is today's downturn the start of something larger? US stock indexes are down (SPY -0.2%) and the trend looks to continue. The US dollar is becoming weaker and crude prices are returning to previous levels, while gold has risen off its lows fractionally.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 0.40%, while the IPC is leading the S&P 500 lower. They are down 1.43% and 0.25% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 75%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 83%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 66%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -0.40
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
81%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 71%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 72%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

25.66

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 82.84
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,134

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Sumner Redstone to step down from Viacom board

(Reuters) - Controlling shareholder Sumner Redstone will step down from the Viacom board of directors after the company's annual meeting in February, according to a company filing on Friday.

Wall Street loses ground as tech stocks weigh

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow were little changed in early afternoon trading on Friday, but the Nasdaq was dragged down by a fall in technology shares.

U.S. housing starts tumble from nine-year high; permits suggest strength

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in November, tumbling from a nine-year high as construction activity declined broadly, the latest sign of slower economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Facebook underreported iPhone traffic for some publishers

(Reuters) - Facebook Inc said it had underreported the number of views on iPhone of content published by some publishers using its Instant Articles platform between Sept. 20 and Nov. 30.

Wells Fargo says account openings fall in November

(Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co reported another decline in monthly consumer account openings, indicating that the bank is having trouble rebuilding its reputation after a sales scandal.

With bylaw tweaks, Apple grants activist one of three wishes

BOSTON/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc's board relaxed some rules for director nominations by outside investors but stopped short of broader changes sought by an activist shareholder.

Orange CEO under fire at Tapie affair trial of IMF's Lagarde

PARIS (Reuters) - French telecoms boss Stephane Richard was sharply criticized by one of the judges and by a witness during the negligence trial of IMF chief Christine Lagarde in Paris this week.

Pushed by investor Ackman, Chipotle adds four new directors to board

(Reuters) - Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc , under pressure from activist investor William Ackman, named four new board members on Friday, paving the way for a reunion of sorts between its chief executive officer and a former top executive at McDonald's, which once owned the burrito chain.

Fidelity gives BlackRock an early leg up in robo advice brawl

BOSTON (Reuters) - Fidelity Investments unintentionally boosted BlackRock Inc's prospects as a robo adviser with a small investment in a start-up company that BlackRock bought last year for an estimated $150 million.

US Oil Rig Count Surges As Crude Production Reaches 7-Month Highs

The last two weeks have seen dramatic rises in the US oil rig count (+21 and +12 respectively) pushing it to its highest in 11 months. US crude production is tracking the lagged rig count very closely and has surged to 7-month highs in the 2 weeks since OPEC agreed its production cut deal.

US Oil Rig Counts continue to rise in line with lagged oil prices.

And in turn the US crude production is resurging against lagged rig increases.

"When Gold Goes Above 1430 We Whack It"

Submitted by Allan Flynn via ComexWeHaveAProblem blog,

As it goes in silver, so it goes in gold. In London at least.

In a bid to have UBS reinstated as a defendant in a London Gold Fix antitrust lawsuit, plaintiffs documents submitted to a New York Court last week include explosive chat room transcripts of UBS and traders from different banks encouraging each other to "push," "smack," and "whack" gold prices.

The transcripts are equally as startling as those described of banks of the London Silver Fix and UBS given to the court the previous day and described last week in this article.

On December 6th attorneys for plaintiffs in a consolidated class action against banks of the London Gold Fix and UBS, asked the court for leave to amend with a Third Amended Complaint. The TAC includes additional facts based on a "limited set of cooperation materials" produced by former defendant Deutsche Bank, as part of a settlement agreement and further statistical analysis.

Supporting documents say the amended complaint addresses the Court's October finding that the previous complaint failed to plausibly plead firstly that UBS was part of the antitrust conspiracy, and secondly that the conspiracy existed prior to 2006.

Also, for the first time a gold producer has be ...

Saudis Threaten To Move Aramco IPO Elsewhere Due To "Concerns" Over Trump, Sept 11 Law

Aside from Hillary Clinton of course, the single biggest loser from the November 8 presidential election in terms of net sunk costs, was Saudi Arabia: having "donated" tens of millions to the Clinton Foundation, and sponsored her presidential campaign directly, Riyadh was hoping for many long and fruitful years of quid pro quo in exchange for its recycled petrodollar generosity. Instead, the Saudis got not only president Trump, who has made it public he wants a clean break with a US foreign policy which panders to such Mid-east "allies" as the Saudi, but also the recent passage of legislation that could - and already has - allowed U.S. terror victims to sue Saudi Arabia.

As a result, a suddenly snubbed Saudi Arabia, is reassessing its multibillion-dollar U.S. financial strategy because of shifts in the American political landscape, including whether to go elsewhere with the public stock debut of its state oil company the WSJ reports.

In monetary terms, this means that Saudi Arabia's giant sovereign-wealth fund has paused its U.S. investments until they can figure out the implications of the bill and the new direction of the White House, the WSJ said citing a person familiar with the fund's decision making.

And, in what is an attempt to engage in a negotiation with the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia has already unveiled what it will use as a bargaining chip to make Trump warm up to Suadi diplomatic overtures: the initial public offering of Saudi Arabian Oil Company, the world's biggest oil producer better known as Aramco, which is tentatively set for next year or 2018, and could raise more than $100 billion in proceeds, ranking as the large ...

Offshore Yuan Crashes To Record Low

The derisking following headlines of China seizing a US underwater drone has sparked further weakness in the offshore Yuan, slamming USDCNH to record lows...

Following last night's big Fix devaluation, and today's headlines, offshore yuan just hit a fresh record low...

What a Michael Kors Bag at Macy's Says About Christmas Sales

Retailers are getting savvier about adjusting their prices based on short-term demand, the latest data from Heard on the Street's retail experiment shows.

Adobe's Big Cloud to Fill

Software maker Adobe has moved most of its business to the cloud while also accelerating growth.

Surging Dollar Upends China's Huge Bond Market

If the Fed follows through with more rate increases, China's bond markets should keep feeling the pain.

Andrea Coombes' Ways and Means: How to have the 'money talk' with your parents

7 ways to jump-start this awkward conversation.

This is why Americans are overweight and broke

Dining out is busting Americans' budgets and belts.

10 most historic events of your lifetime

Which events had the most impact on America?

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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