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08Dec2016 Market Update: Wall Street Marches On, New Intraday Highs Mark Bull Run Advancement, US Dollar Back Up, Crude Prices Steady

Written by Gary

U.S. stocks today reached new record levels intraday after the ECB held its key rates steady but said it would taper its asset-purchase plan in April, while leaving the door open for an extension of its economic stimulus program "if necessary." Early trading has been choppy as equity investors attempt to extend a multisession stock advance.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.75% while the S&P 500 gains 0.36%. The Bovespa is off 1.25%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 77%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear

84%

Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 63%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

+59.44

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)

75%

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 69%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 68%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 23.87
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 84.16
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors

11,158

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Indexes hit record highs as Trump rally continues

(Reuters) - A month-long rally on Wall Street, sparked by Donald Trump's election as U.S. president, extended on Thursday, driving major Wall Street indexes to record highs.

U.S. jobless claims drop from five-month high

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell from a five-month high last week, pointing to labor strength that underscores the economy's sustained momentum.

Exclusive: Bangladesh panel finds insiders negligent in central bank heist

DHAKA (Reuters) - A Bangladesh government-appointed panel investigating the cyber-heist of $81 million from its central bank in February found five officials at the bank were guilty of negligence and carelessness, the head of the panel told Reuters on Thursday.

Lower for longer, ECB scales back asset buys

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank trimmed back its asset buys in a surprise move on Thursday but promised protracted stimulus to aid a still fragile recovery, and dismissed any talk of tapering the program away.

McDonald's to move international tax base to UK amid EU scrutiny

(Reuters) - McDonald's Corp said on Thursday it would move its international tax base to the United Kingdom from Luxembourg after coming under increased scrutiny from European Union regulators over its tax arrangements in the small country.

Only five non-OPEC producers so far attending talks to widen output cut

LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) - Only five of 14 non-OPEC oil producers have agreed so far to meet the group on Saturday for talks aimed at widening a deal to reduce output, casting doubt on whether OPEC will secure the full cuts it is seeking, two OPEC sources said.

U.S. household net worth rose to $90.2 trillion in the third-quarter: Fed

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The net worth of U.S. households increased in the third quarter as U.S. stock prices and real estate values continued to flourish, a report by the Federal Reserve showed on Thursday.

Deutsche Bank's 'smoking gun' evidence to expand U.S. silver rigging case

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lawyers for investors accusing several major banks of conspiring to rig silver prices are seeking to add five new defendants to the case, based what they call "smoking gun" evidence they obtained from Deutsche Bank AG following a settlement.

China's Fujian drops Aixtron bid after Obama blocks deal

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - China's Fujian Grand Chip Investment Fund has dropped its takeover bid for chip equipment maker Aixtron after the United States blocked the deal on security grounds, throwing the German company's future into doubt.

"Paper Money Disappears" Among Nomura's 10 Grey Swan Events For 2017

From "the end of cash" to "Trump muzzling The Fed" to "Russia going on the warpath", Nomura unveils its unlikely-but-impactful grey swan scenarios for 2017...

As Nomura writes, while we would like to be able to predict black swans, by definition they are unpredictable. However, its close cousin, the grey swan, can be envisaged.

These are the unlikely but impactful events that, in our opinion, lie outside the usual base case and risk scenarios of the analyst community. So we have donned our creative hats and have come up with 10 potential grey swan events for 2017. We have avoided the more widely discussed scenarios (e.g., a break-up of the euro area, a Trump impeachment or a China implosion). Instead, we have selected topics that have not been as widely discussed. Needless to say, none of them are our base case, but we think it is better to be prepared than not. Potential grey swan events for 2017 include:



Shock 1: US productivity booms

Shock 2: China floats currency

Shock 3: EU reforms, UK rejoins

Shock 4: Japan inflation surge

Shock 5: Fed muzzled

Shock 6: Russia flexes its muscles

Shock 7: Clearing houses fail

Shock 8: Japan's Abe loses power

Shock 9: EM capital controls return

Shock 10: Paper money disappears

Here is Bloomberg's summary of Nomura's 10 events that could end up roiling your 2017.

California Cities Weigh "Netflix Tax" For Online Video Streaming

Government is on the verge of completely destroying the economy all because those in power are incapable of managing even a bubblegum machine, rages Armstrong Economics' Martin Armstrong.

Local cities are desperate for money as their own pensions moving closer to collapsing.

Instead of dealing with the problem, of course, they always choose to just tax the stupid people.

Pasadena city officials are considering whether to tax subscribers of Netflix, Hulu, and other video streaming services under an existing municipal utility tax code that was initially designed for taxing cable television users. Sacramento and dozens of other California cities have similar codes that they are looking to use to tax video streaming. As NYTimes reports,

Dozens of California cities looking to shore up revenues are flirting with a new idea — tax your "Gilmore Girls" binge.

Pasadena was among the first to say publicly this fall that it wanted to tax video streaming services like Netflix, a step that could make up for lost tax revenue from growing numbers of cord-cutters.

At 9.4 percent, the so-called Netflix tax would treat streaming services as a traditional utility, the city said. If you use multiple services — for example, Hulu, Amazon Video and HBO — it would be added to each bill.

The move in Pasadena, with a population of about 140,000, has drawn consternation from technology companies and consumers who worry that it could be copied across the state.

Stocks Spike Higher As Bloomberg Terminals Hit By Outage

Just moments after we tweeted the following:

almost time for today's gamma rebal freak out

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 8, 2016

... stocks surged again on a sudden heavy volume spike, as today's latest gamma rebalance kicked in again. Same shit, different day...

But, something is very broken... VIX and stocks are perfectly correlated in thge last two days...

and should be anti-correlated as per norms...

This happened to coincide with reports of worldwide outage issues for Bloomberg Terminals. Traders are anxious...

"if you're having connection issues with a Bloomberg terminal it's not just you - apparently Street-wide."

"hmm. everythings frozen on my end, just a few exhangs feeds r running. my cousin manages bbg terminals for a few states, he said everyones going nuts. they mightve suspended trading through the terminal also ...

Black American Confidence Collapses Post-Trump, Whites At 11-Month Highs

Despite an initial pop, it appears the Trump presidency has not been greeted by all Americans equally exuberantly as the stock market.

While confidence among white Americans has spiked to 11-month highs, black American confidence has crashed since the election...

Also in line with what one would expect, the pre-election exuberance of Democrats has collapsed (but remains above the rising Republican confidence)...

Perhaps more black Americans and Democrats should buy stocks?

Infrastructure Investors Are Out of Tune With Markets

An international consortium of major infrastructure investors is paying a punchy price for the U.K.'s gas-distribution network.

Rust-Belt Debt Hangs Around Beijing's Neck

Good times won't last in China's worst-off, old-economy provinces dominated by steel and coal.

Glencore Explores Its Limits in Russian Oil Patch

Resurgent Glencore's role in a $13 billion deal for a stake in Rosneft gives the commodities giant fresh oil to play with.

Outside the Box: The tech industry is taking too gloomy a view of the Trump presidency

Donald Trump did attack Amazon, Apple and Facebook during the campaign. But this is what the tech industry is missing, says NYU Prof. Anindya Ghose.

Currencies: Euro on track for largest one-day drop since Brexit

The euro is on track for its largest one-day drop since Brexit following the European Central Bank's decision to reduce its massive monthly bond-buying program beginning in April.

CVS is about to lose more than 40 million prescriptions

CVS Health says its near-term and 2017 outlook was impacted by changing network relationships that will cause 40 million prescription losses, many to rival Walgreens.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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