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30Nov2016 Pre-Market Commentary: OPEC Deal Near - Oil Up Nearly 7%

Written by Gary

USA markets are set to open marginally up as OPEC appears ready to endorse a oil production deal where Saudi Arabia would make significant cuts.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region. The FTSE 100 is up 0.83% while France's CAC 40 is up 0.47% and Germany's DAX is up 0.19%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Saudis say to take 'big hit' on oil output for OPEC deal, Iran can freeze

VIENNA (Reuters) - Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Wednesday OPEC was close to clinching a deal to limit oil output, adding Riyadh was prepared to accept "a big hit" on its own production and agree to arch-rival Iran freezing output at pre-sanctions levels.

Oil soars on OPEC hopes, dollar renews its surge

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil jumped more than 6 percent and the dollar, U.S. bond yields and stocks all pushed higher on Wednesday as signals from OPEC suggested the group was closing in on a deal to cut production.

Philip Morris CEO looks towards phasing out cigarettes: BBC

LONDON (Reuters) - Philip Morris International , the world's largest international tobacco company, could eventually stop selling cigarettes, its chief executive told the BBC on Wednesday, as it launched its alternative product IQOS in Britain.

Toyota chief shifts gear, to boost electric vehicle division

TOKYO (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp on Wednesday appointed its president to lead their newly formed electric car division, flagging its commitment to develop a technology that the automaker has been slow to embrace.

Leaner and meaner: U.S. shale greater threat to OPEC after oil price war

NEW YORK/HOUSTON (Reuters) - In a corner of the prolific Bakken shale play in North Dakota, oil companies can now pump crude at a price almost as low as that enjoyed by OPEC giants Iran and Iraq.

Oil jumps 7 percent on prospects for big OPEC output cut

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped more than 7 percent on Wednesday as some of the world's largest oil producers gathered in Vienna to agree on a production cut that could be bigger than expected.

All-American pick-up trucks aim to lure China's wealthy

GUANGZHOU, China (Reuters) - Automakers Ford and General Motors are aiming the pick-up truck, an iconic staple in the United States, at upmarket buyers in China, where most associate trucks with farmers and construction workers.

France says U.S. must comply fast with WTO Boeing ruling

PARIS (Reuters) - France said on Wednesday that the United States must comply with a World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruling this week against U.S. tax breaks for Boeing , and that failure to do so would give the EU legal basis for retaliatory measures.

Striking Lufthansa pilots ground nearly 900 flights

BERLIN (Reuters) - The latest strike by Lufthansa pilots grounded almost 900 flights on Wednesday and German companies and other Lufthansa staff called for an end to the protests which are costing the airline 10-15 million euros a day.

Oil Soars 6% On Optimism For Imminent OPEC Output Deal

For those curious why oil has soared over 6% in early trading, here is the one tweet explanation we posted yesterday during the peak pessimism surrounding the OPEC deal:

OPEC hoping more shorts will pile in ahead of tomorrow's announcement

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 29, 2016

Indeed, shorts piled in, and now they are rushing for the exits on an unprecedented volley of relentless "optimistic" headlines. Technicals aside, the "fundamental" reason why WTI has exploded this morning...

... is because once again optimism has returned that OPEC is close to a deal to reduce supply though final terms still need to be agreed, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters at OPEC's Vienna HQ, adding Riyadh would agree to Iran freezing production at pre-sanctions levels. The comments could be seen as a compromise by Riyadh, which in recent weeks insisted that Iran fully participate in any cut.

Falih also said OPEC was focusing on reducing output to a ceiling of 32.5 million barrels per day, or cutting by more than 1 million bpd, and hoped Russia and other non-OPEC members would contribute a cut of another 0.6 million bpd. Subsequent headlines expanded the scope of the cut to 1.4mmpd, following a suggestion that non-OPEC countries, led by Russia, would also cut to the tune of 600kbpd, with Russia expected to contribute 400kpbd of the cut...

Negative Equity Rolled Into New Car Purchases Reaches Record High

Just two weeks ago we noted that a record 25% of vehicles being traded in for used car purchases had negative equity of $3,635. Now, according to the latest report from Edmunds, the new car market isn't any better off with 32% of trade-ins having an average negative equity balance of $4,832. Of course, that's no problem when you can simply roll that negative equity into a brand new 7-year loan at a 2% interest rate. Sure, with the average car priced at $33,000, that means your starting principal balance is 115% of your new car's value but that's no big deal, right? That just means you'll have to roll over even more negative equity in 4 years when you buy your next brand new vehicle.

Through the first three quarters of this year, an estimated 32% of all trade-ins being rolled into a new-vehicle purchase were under water — the highest rate on record, according to Edmunds.com. The amount of negative equity car buyers are rolling has also reached a record high. On average, according to the firm, consumers trading in their vehicles for new cars are rolling $4,832 in negative equity.

"It's curious to see just how many of today's car shoppers are undeterred by how much they owe on their trade-ins," said Edmunds.com Sr. Analyst Ivan Drury. "With today's strong economic conditions at their back, these shoppers are willing to absorb a significant financial hit to get into a newer vehicle.

And that's how you manufacture this:

Autos

NATO's Rear-Guard Actions

Submitted by Brian Cloughley via Strategic-Culture.org,

In the military a rearguard action is defined as 'a defensive action carried out by a retreating army' and it is an appropriate description of the desperate scrabbling by NATO to convince the rest of the world — and especially Donald Trump — that its existence is justified.

President-elect Trump has never said that the US should actually leave NATO. Certainly Hillary Clinton declared that he 'wants to pull out of NATO' but this was just another of her lies, and what he said back in April was that it is 'obsolete' which is a gentle way of indicating that it's hopeless. He did, after all, tell a town hall meeting in Wisconsin: «Maybe Nato will dissolve and that's OK, not the worst thing in the world», but although that may have sent shivers up the supple spine of NATO's Secretary General Stoltenberg, it was by no means a definitive statement of intention.

The fact remains that The Donald is unhappy with NATO, and he's perfectly right to consider that it's a vastly expensive and largely ineffective military grouping that indeed should be disbanded. On the other hand, the massive propaganda campaign waged against Russia has convinced much of the world that Moscow has expansionist plans and that the only way to counter its suppose ...

Trump Picks Former Goldman Banker Steven Mnuchin As Treasury Secretary

While it has yet to be officially confirmed by the Trump transition team, moments ago the NYT reported that - in what had previously been leaked on several occasions on various other outlets most notably the WSJ - former Goldman banker and Soros employee, Steven Mnuchin "a financier with deep roots on Wall Street and in Hollywood but no government experience" is expected to be named Donald J. Trump's Treasury secretary as soon as Wednesday.

The WSJ has confirmed as much, reporting that "President-elect Donald Trump will name longtime banker and former Goldman Sachs executive Steven Mnuchin as Treasury secretary, turning to a campaign loyalist and fundraiser for the incoming administration's top economic cabinet post, a transition official said Tuesday."


Steven Terner Mnuchin at Trump Tower in Manhattan this month

From the NYT:

Mnuchin, 53, was the national finance chairman for Mr. Trump's campaign. He began his career at Goldman Sachs, where he became a partner, before creating his own hedge fund, moving to the West Coast and entering the first rank of movie financiers by bankrolling hits like the "X-Men" franchise and "Avatar."

As Treasury secretary, Mr. Mnuchin would play an important role in shaping the administration's economic policies, including a ...

Two Stock Bubbles, One Ready to Prick

The remarkable rise of Hong Kong's Zall Group and Fullshare Holdings will run out of air eventually.

China Has To Get Creative to Buy Assets Abroad

Even as China cracks down on outflows, its state companies find novel ways to fund far-flung deals for natural resources.

Luxury Industry Can't Count on China's Reverse Silk Road

What will be the luxury industry's new China? Today's standard answer has a familiar ring: new parts of China.

Infographic Of The Day: 12 Reasons Your Brain Needs Vacations

It's one thing to feel like you need a break, it is another thing to convince yourself that you should take one.

Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mixed, Neg Outlook For Gold, Veterans Join ND Protest, RBS Fails Stress Test, CIA Chief Warns Trump, India GDP Outlook Falls, Colombia Peal Deal And More

Written by Econintersect

Early Bird Headlines 30 November 2016

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

Commodities Corner: OPEC oil meeting: 7 things you need to know

OPEC will face a difficult task Wednesday as the cartel struggles to complete a plan to curb output. Here are some of the likely outcome scenarios and their potential impact on the oil market.

Tesla's Model X is 'fast and flawed,' Consumer Reports says

Magazine, which once gushed about the Model S sedan, comes out with scathing review.

Home Depot could be the surprise winner of the holiday shopping season

Home Depot, and its appliance assortment, are an analyst choice for the holidays.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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