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25Nov2016 Pre-Market Commentary: A Treading Water Day?

Written by Gary

USA markets are set to open marginally up. Oil prices down with the dollar up. Happy Black Friday! - enjoy your online shopping.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed to lower. Shares in France are off as the CAC 40 drops 0.21%. The DAX is down 0.18% while the FTSE 100 in London is unchanged.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. stock futures rise; focus on retail as Black Friday kicks off

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher on Black Friday, with the focus on retailers to see if they will propel or hit pause on Wall Street's record-setting rally.

Thanksgiving sales surge online as shoppers stay home for holiday

(Reuters) - Online spending by U.S. bargain hunters climbed to above $1 billion by Thanksgiving evening, according to Adobe Digital Index, surging almost 14 percent from a year ago and reflecting a broader trend away from brick-and-mortar shopping.

Wells Fargo asks U.S. court to dismiss account scandal lawsuit

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co has asked a U.S. court to order dozens of customers who are suing the bank over the opening of unauthorized accounts to resolve their disputes in private arbitrations instead of court, according to legal documents.

Oil down on strong dollar, OPEC uncertainty

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices slid on Friday, dragged by a strong dollar and uncertainty over whether OPEC will agree to cut production at the group's meeting next week, but benchmark contracts were on track to close the week with gains close to 4 percent.

J&J makes takeover approach for Swiss drugmaker Actelion: Bloomberg

(Reuters) - U.S. healthcare company Johnson & Johnson has approached Swiss biotechnology firm Actelion Ltd about a potential takeover, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing people it said were familiar with the matter.

More company climate votes ahead, as Trump may loosen energy rules

BOSTON (Reuters) - Activist shareholders plan a record number of resolutions focused on climate change at U.S. company annual meetings in 2017, even as President-elect Donald Trump looks set to loosen environmental regulations.

Turkey's Pegasus may postpone Boeing deliveries as costs weigh, CEO says

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkish budget carrier Pegasus Airlines may postpone delivery of three new Boeing aircraft next year, lease some of its current fleet and sell older planes to cut costs after a difficult year for Turkish tourism, its chief executive said.

Exclusive: Japan's MHI U.S. Army vehicle suspension may mark milestone for defense exports

TOKYO (Reuters) - Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) has designed a new suspension for the U.S. Army's Bradley Fighting Vehicle, said two sources with direct knowledge of the matter, potentially the first Japanese defense hardware built for export in decades.

More than 800 flights grounded as Lufthansa dispute intensifies

BERLIN (Reuters) - German airline Lufthansa canceled around 830 flights on Friday because of a strike by pilots, with long-haul journeys facing disruption over the weekend as the dispute intensifies.

Cash Crackdown Escalates: India May Impose 60% Tax On "Unaccounted" Deposits, Curbs On Gold Holdings

As reported yesterday, India's unexpected crackdown on "black money" which saw the elimination of the old high denomination bills, is not going well, not only because former PM Manmohan Singh slammed the idea warning it would cut as much as 2% from the GDP of the world's fastest growing economy, but because so far the voluntary participation in the "exchange" of old for new notes ahead of today's exchange suspension (deposits of old cash may still take place until December 31) has been far below expectations.

As a result, the government is taking even more aggressive steps to part savers with their allegedly "laundered" cash, and as the Indian Express reports, Mody's cabinet discussed amending laws to levy close to 60% income tax on unaccounted deposits in banks above a threshold post demonetisation of high-denomination currency notes. "The move comes amid banks reporting over Rs 21,000 crore being deposited in zero-balance Jan Dhan accounts in two weeks after the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes were banned, which authorities apprehend may be the laundered black money."

IE sources said the government was keen to tax all unaccounted money deposited in bank accounts after it allowed the banned currency to be deposited in bank accounts during a 50-day window from November 10 to December 30. The Indian paper adds that there was no official briefing on what transpired in the meeting that was called at short notice as Parliament is ...

One Shot Dead Outside South Jersey Mall On Black Friday

For yet another year, Black Friday has started off with a (deadly) bang, and as CBS reports, police are investigating a shooting outside of a South Jersey mall on Black Friday. It happened early this morning in South Jersey outside of the Macys department store at the Hamilton Mall, near Atlantic City. CBS 3's Trang Do reports one person has died in the shooting.

"It's sad," said one shopper on the scene of the shooting."We've been doing this, me and my girls for probably about ten years now, just for the fun of going out ...

Furious Dollar Rally Fizzles On "Black Friday"; US Stocks Set To Open At New All-Time Highs

Having soared to fresh 13 year highs in a quiet overnight session on thin liquidity due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, which sent the USDJPY just shy of 114 and the Yuan to 6.96, the dollar pared back its weekly advance with modest profit taking after traders wondered if the rally has gotten "too stretched." European shares were fractionally higher, with Asian stocks and US equity futures rising and both the Dow Jones and the S&P set for new all time highs. Oil followed the USD lower, down fractionally ahead of next week's OPEC meeting where negotiations now focus on whether non-OPEC led by Russia nations will cut or freeze.

With the US offline yesterday, American markets are set for another early close on Black Friday: U.S. equity markets close at 1pm, bond markets close at 2pm.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell from the highest level in more than a decade, while emerging-market currencies clawed back gains after India's rupee and Turkey's lira fell to record lows on Thursday. U.S. equity-index futures signaled stocks will edge higher as trading resumes following the Thanksgiving holiday. European shares were little changed, oil pared a weekly gain and Treasuries fell.

The recurring story every day since Trump's election is that as a result of the upcoming debt-funded fiscal stimulus, inflation is poised to jump which in turn has fueled a surge in bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes, propelling the greenback higher against all but two of it peers this month. Traders see an increase in borrowing costs in December as a certainty, while the odds of additional moves by June have risen to more than 60 percent, according to futures data tracked by Bloomberg.

As shown virtually every day on these pages, the "Trumpflation" bet on global reflation has sent the USD soaring, while slamming EM currencies, f ...

China's Travel Giant Takes Expensive European Adventure

Ctrip's deal for Skyscanner gives China's top travel website a footprint in Europe, but at a fulsome valuation.

China Drags Toyota Into Electric Future

Toyota is finally edging into electric-only vehicles, and China is a big reason why.

BlackFriday: Retail Stocks Aren't on Sale

The all-important holiday shopping season for retailers typically isn't the best time to own retail shares.

Rail Week Ending 19 November 2016: Improvement Trend Continues

Week 46 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Long term rolling averages remain in contraction - but the 4 week rolling average is now in positive territory.

Trucking Data Mixed In October 2016

Written by Steven Hansen

Truck shipments declined or improved in October - depending on the data source. Trucking, like rail, may be in contraction - but is likely improving.

Chuck Jaffe: How the popularity of gift cards underscores America's loss of civility

A gift card signals you care enough to do the very least. Chuck Jaffe challenges you to put more though into your holiday presents.

T-Mobile's accounting slammed by investor group in letter to SEC

CtW asks SEC to investigate T-Mobile's accounting amid allegations it inflated GAAP earnings in the period stretching from the fourth quarter of 2014 through the first three quarters of 2015

Need to Know: Here's a Black Friday play as retail stocks take a different turn

Our chart of the day suggests a way to capitalize on today's nationwide spending spree as stocks fail to produce their usual behavior.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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