econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



22Nov2016 Market Close: Wall Street On A Serious Bull Run, DOW Closes Up 67 Points, Commodities Relatively Unchanged, New Historic Highs Again

Written by Gary

New highs at the closing (SPY +0.3%)! Is this the end of the rally, or just the beginning? So many analysts are now issuing warnings, sometime dire, that the markets is especially fragile and subject to a serious 'correction'. But then, didn't we hear these same words back in 2010? Let us know what you think.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street edges up to new highs, but healthcare slips

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged higher in afternoon trading on Tuesday, pushing the Dow above the 19,000 level and the S&P 500 above 2,200, though a fall in healthcare stocks weighed on the market.

U.S. existing home sales race to more than 9-1/2-year high

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home resales rose in October to their highest level in more than 9-1/2 years as homebuyers, buoyed by an improving labor market, took advantage of still-low mortgage rates to snatch up properties after many were shut out during the busy summer selling season.

Trump sinks Asia trade pact, opening the way for China to lead

TOKYO/SYDNEY (Reuters) - An ambitious Asia-Pacific trade pact linking the United States and 11 countries lay in tatters on Tuesday after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he would kill the deal on his first day in office on Jan. 20.

OPEC to debate oil output cut next week but Iraq, Iran hesitate

VIENNA/DUBAI (Reuters) - OPEC will debate an oil output cut of 4.0-4.5 percent for all of its members except Libya and Nigeria next week but the deal's success hinges on an agreement from Iraq and Iran, which are far from certain to give full backing.

VW puts conquering Americas at heart of turnaround plan

WOLFSBURG, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen will need to conquer the Americas, the region at the center of its emissions scandal, to deliver a turnaround at its core VW brand, Europe's largest carmaker said on Tuesday.

Wall Street hits record highs, oil prices slump

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street's three main stock indexes hit record highs for a second straight day on Tuesday before trimming gains, while European shares also rose on expectations that markets would benefit from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies.

Italy to push Iran trade ties, undaunted by Trump

ROME (Reuters) - Italy's industry minister pledged on Tuesday to support business deals with Iran potentially worth billions of dollars, undeterred by fears U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could put slowly thawing international relations back on ice.

Money Markets: Traders see U.S. rate hike as a sure thing in December

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Traders bet on Tuesday that an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve next month is a near lock following stronger-than-expected economic data and expectations of big tax cuts and federal spending under the Trump administration.

Greece to continue bailout talks, aiming to finish before December 5

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece will continue talks with international creditors on fiscal and labor reforms, aiming to wrap up the second review of its bailout program by early next month ahead of a euro zone finance ministers' meeting, government officials said on Tuesday.

Deutsche Bank Warns "The Plate-Spinning Era" Is Over

Deutsche Bank's long-held analogy of "plate-spinning" central bankers acting like the old popular circus act where the performers would spin plates on numerous poles and run between them in order to re-spin before they came crashing down to the ground, has held perfectly for several years. Over the years more plates have been added and central bankers have had to run faster and faster between them to stop gravity taking over.

But now Deutsche Bank is concerned:

Up to this year we've felt confident that they could continue this art for the foreseeable future and thus keep asset prices elevated as a result. We accepted that such policy wasn't conducive for growth and prevented reform/creative destruction, but was positive in the short-term for most assets tied to monetary policy in some valuation form or another.

However 2016 has been a landmark year as we seem to have reached a point where the faster the plates are spun the more the unintended short-term consequences. The banking sector - especially in Europe and Japan - has been severely constrained by negative rates and flatter curves. If the sector was healthier they could withstand such an attack on their profitability but with inherent underlying weakness and with a need to build better regulatory defenses, monetary policy has started to be a sizeable negative. Given how important banks are to the wider economy then it's no longer a win-win when central banks ease policy further. In fact in some cases the opposite outcome could materialise.

And assets are starting to misbehave...

Figure 9 shows the Stoxx 600 bank index against 10 year Bunds and then ...

"Stocks Have Priced In Nirvana Where Debt Doesn't Matter... Best Of Luck With That"

Via NorthmanTrader.com,

Markets have been on a tear since election night. The principle reason: The perceived notion of another set of stimulus packages hitting markets during the next presidency. Specifically the notions of corporate tax cuts and increased infrastructure and military spending have sent financial and industrial stocks flying higher resulting in new highs on many indices.

The global central bank inspired multiple expansion that has transpired in 2016 as a result of over $2.2 trillion in annual QE programs and continued low rates found another boost in the new found belief that more easing is coming in form of a Trump presidency. The result: Both stocks and yields have risen dramatically in just a couple of weeks on an expected reflation trade.

The main themes that have emerged: 1. Lower taxes are good for earnings and will stimulate the economy. 2. A large infrastructure bill and increased military spending is good for corporations that supply such services and hence are good for employment. Ergo buy stocks. Inflation is coming and that's good for banks and hence good for stocks.

This all sounds good on paper and this is all it is at the moment as nothing of the sort will come to fruition until at least 2017, but these items are clearly being priced into markets.

But there is a big problem with all of this: None of the policies priced in actually look to address the promises made.

Let's start with the budget. And note the current budget is already running at a deficit of $616B for the current year.

Firstly one has ...

These Are The Top 50 Hedge Fund Long And Short Positions

One can argue that few industries have "suffered" more under central planning than billionaire hedge fund managers, and as 2016 goes on, so does the suffering continued.

It is no secret to regular readers that over the past decade, hedge funds have not only underperformed the market, but have failed to generate "alpha" since 2011.

As we have shown year after year, the centrally-planned "New Paranormal" has been a disaster for traditional alpha generation, since with all traditional fundamental relationships flipped upside down thanks to the Fed, the only way to generate outsized returns for one's investors (and one's offshore bank account) was to be massively levered beta, or merely wrong.

Sadly for the 2 and 20 crowd, in the third quarter this troubling trend continued, with Goldman's latest Hedge Fund Trend Monitor reporting that in te first 9 months of 2016, the hedge fund industry generated a mere 4% return, underperforming the broader market's 9% YTD return and as Goldman notes, "on pace to lag the S&P 500 for the eighth straight year"

Compared to last quarter's update, when we showed hedge funds returning only 3%, implies that in Q3 the Hedge Fund industry added a grand total of 1% in P&L.

WTI Jumps Back Above $48 After OPEC Meeting Said To End "Successfully"

This is just becoming farce now...

1154ET - *OPEC COMMITTEE SAID TO DEFER ISSUE OF IRAN, IRAQ CUTS TO NOV 30

1436ET - *OPEC TECHNICAL MEETING ENDS, WAS SUCCESSFUL: OPEC STATEMENT

1436ET - *IRAQ GOV. SAYS `WE ARE AGREED AND HAPPY' AFTER OPEC CMTE MTG

Having earlier seen half of OPEC say "no deal" or "unfair", OPEC sources now say that the meeting has ended "successfully"... Whatever that means...

Swerve: What Trump advisers say about AT&T-Time Warner deal | Amazon wants to stream live sports | 'Rogue One' tracking for big debut

President-elect Donald Trump made a lot of promises during his more than 18-month run to win the White House. Now as he retreats from some positions, investors are wondering if he'll stick with his promise to block the AT&T-Time Warner merger.

How to save money on holiday cards this year: Go digital

Bing Crosby dreamed of a white Christmas with every Christmas card he wrote. These days, we're sending emails, e-cards, Facebook posts and even text messages.

Capitol Report: Trump tells the New York Times presidents 'can't have a conflict of interest'

Highlights, via Twitter, of Donald Trump's meeting on Tuesday with the New York Times.

Summary of Economic Releases this Week

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

leading Stock Positions

Leading Stock Quotes powered by Investing.com

Current Commodity Prices


Commodities are powered by Investing.com

Current Currency Crosses

The Forex Quotes are powered by Investing.com.



To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.





Econintersect Live Market

search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Big Mess in Italy
Are You Feeling the Economic Surge?
News Blog
December 5, 2016 Weather and Climate Report - December Update - Zonal Prevails
Irish Births And Baptisms Visualised
What Happens In The Smartphone Afterlife
Water Intoxication: Are We Drowning In Advice To Drink More Fluids?
The Worldwide Virtual Reality Market Is Set To Be Huge
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 05 December 2016 Rose Over 5 Cents
What We Read Today 05 December 2016
Why We Have Different Blood Types
November 2016 Conference Board Employment Index Improved.
November 2016 ISM and Markit Services Index Mixed
Are All Collateralized Loan Obligations Equal?
A Third Of Homes Sold For The List Price Or More In August 2016
It Is Still Not Too Late To Find A Seasonal Job
Investing Blog
Momentum Issues A Warning
The Great Bond Crash Of 2016: 05 December Update
Opinion Blog
The Shale-War Is Over
Fake Science
Precious Metals Blog
Silver Prices Rebounded Today: Where They Are Headed
Live Markets
05Dec2016 Market Close: US Markets Close Higher, WTI Crude Settles At $51.09, US Dollar Drops Below 100 Temporally
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved