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22Nov2016 Market Update: Wall Street Off New Historic Highs, Crude Prices Down Fractionally, US Dollar Remains Above 101 And Gold Battling Support Levels

Written by Gary

The DOW crossed 19,000 points today, after nearly two years climbing from 18,000, posting a gain of almost 6%. Crude prices were little changed, but have fallen into the mid 47 level while gold prices edge higher, and the stock market softened.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Mexico leading the region. The IPC is up 1.12% while Brazil's Bovespa is up 1.11% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.03%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 79%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 65%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 58%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

+45.15

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
73%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 63%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 62%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 23.01
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy

82.57

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,783

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street eases off record highs as health stocks weigh

(Reuters) - The three major U.S. stocks hit record intraday highs for the second straight day on Tuesday, with the Dow topping 19,000, before pulling back sharply as healthcare stocks tumbled.

U.S. existing home sales hit more than 9-1/2-year high

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home resales rose in October to their highest level in more than 9-1/2 years amid pent-up demand, offering more evidence of a pickup in economic growth early in the fourth quarter.

Trump sinks Asia trade pact, opening the way for China to lead

TOKYO/SYDNEY (Reuters) - An ambitious Asia-Pacific trade pact linking the United States and 11 countries lay in tatters on Tuesday after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he would kill the deal on his first day in office on Jan. 20.

OPEC to debate oil output cut next week but Iraq, Iran hesitate

VIENNA/DUBAI (Reuters) - OPEC will debate an oil output cut of 4.0-4.5 percent for all of its members except Libya and Nigeria next week but the deal's success hinges on an agreement from Iraq and Iran, which are far from certain to give full backing.

VW puts conquering Americas at heart of turnaround plan

WOLFSBURG, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen will need to conquer the Americas, the region at the center of its emissions scandal, to deliver a turnaround at its core VW brand, Europe's largest carmaker said on Tuesday.

Money Markets: Traders see U.S. rate hike as a sure thing in December

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Traders bet on Tuesday that an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve next month is a near lock following stronger-than-expected economic data and expectations of big tax cuts and federal spending under the Trump administration.

Dr Pepper Snapple to buy antioxidant drinks maker Bai for $1.7 billion

(Reuters) - Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc said on Tuesday it would buy antioxidant beverages maker Bai Brands LLC for $1.7 billion in cash, the latest example of a soft-drinks maker investing in products that are perceived to be healthier.

Madoff trustee lawsuits against Koch, others are dismissed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A federal bankruptcy judge on Tuesday dismissed lawsuits by the trustee liquidating Bernard Madoff's firm to recoup funds from Koch Industries Inc, the company controlled by billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, and dozens of other defendants.

Pakistan's PIA considers Boeing, Airbus jets for fleet upgrade

DUBAI (Reuters) - Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) is evaluating an order for wide-body Airbus and Boeing jets as it looks to upgrade its ageing fleet, an executive for the state-owned airline said on Tuesday.

As TPP Dies, Asian Nations Salute Their New "Free Trade" Leader: China

Over the weekend we reported that as Obama was speaking at the APEC summit in Peru, hoping to salvage his global trade legacy, the TPP, China's President Xi Jinping officially called for the launch of the Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific for "institutional guarantee of open economy", a move many had expected would take place as China was eager to fill in the void left by the US in any trans-Pacific trade treaty.

As we previously reported, in his speech in LIma, Xi Jinping sought to position himself as a leader in global commerce, vowing to support trade. The attendees signaled "deepening economic integration and opposing trade protectionism," the Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Tuesday.

Then, overnight, China got a present when Trump announced in a brief video statement that his first executive order upon becoming president would be to remove the US from the TPP. That's all Beijing needed to hear and this morning China said it hoped to conclude an Asia-wide trade pact as soon as possible, in what the WSJ dubbed was "a sign of Beijing's intent to broaden its regional influence amid the apparent collapse of the U.S.-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership."

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Tuesday that Asian leaders are pressing ahead with talks for the 10-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that China has backed as an alternative to the U.S.-led deal, and "hope that such negotiations can achieve early results."

As a result, the shift in regional support has been abrupt: Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, a TPP booster, is now calling on Asian Pacific nations to boost trade by backing the China-led pact and other initiatives. "There are still ...

"Emotionally F**king Pissed" Media Blows Embargo And Lashes Out At Trump - "F*ck Him"

Just yesterday Trump called a summit of all the major mainstream media executives and anchors at Trump Tower. While many expected the meeting to be an oppotunity to ask questions of the president-elect, the media elites apparently got the surprise of their lives when Trump spent the majority of the meeting attacking they're blatant biased coverage the 2016 presidential elections referring to the room as a bunch of "dishonest, deceitful liars." One participant in the meeting described it as a "f—ing firing squad" after "Trump started with Jeff Zucker and said "I hate your network, everyone at CNN is a liar and you should be ashamed...." We suspect that was rather less cordial than they expected.

Despite the conversation being completely off the record, many of the "emotionally fucking pissed" media anchors have decided to blow their embargoes and lash out at Trump. According to one source interviewed by the New Yorker, the meeting at Trump Tower was "fucking outrageous." The same source also questioned how he could remain impartial after the meeting saying "How can this not influence coverage?"...yes, because coverage was so impartial up until yesterday.

Another participant at the meeting said that Trump's behavior was "totally inappropriate" and "fucking outrageous." The television people thought that they were being summoned to ask questions; Trump has not held a press conference since late July. Instead, they were subjected to a stream of insults and complaints—and not everyone absorbed it with pleasure.

"I have to tell yo ...

Oil Slides: OPEC "Deal" Suddenly In Jeopardy

Earlier today, oil spiked and pushed stocks to new all time highs, after the Nigerian OPEC delegate Ibrahim Waya said that not only is "everyone on board" ahead of the November 30 Vienna cartel summit, but that he expected details of the output accord would be finalized today.

That, however, was put in question later in the morning when OPEC members said that Iran, Iraq and Indonesia were all said to have "reservations" about a proposed 4.5% production cut. Worse, according to the news, it appeared as if Iran would not be part of the exempt from production cuts group at all, contrary to the Algiers agreement, suggesting that Saudi Arabia had changed its mind once again.

And now, moments ago, oil tumbled to intrday lows on the latest batch of headlines according to which the OPEC Vienna "deal" is now suddenly in jeopardy when Bloomberg reported that the OPEC committee is said to defer the issue of Iran and Iraq - the second and third largest producers in OPEC - to the November 30 meeting altogether, confirming what the skeptics knew all along - that not only will a deal not be finalized today, but that a deal may not even happen next week in Vienna, as the rift between what Saudi Arabia is willing to "cut" to reach a deal and what it demands from its key competitors in a jockeying for market share, remains as wide as ever.

Oil promptly dropped to day's lows on the news.

As a reminder, earlier today we showed a matrix of probabilities laying out what would happen to the price of oil should OPEC fail to reach an agreement: according to BofA, failure to agree on a ...

Venezuelan President Threatens Legal Action Over JPMorgan's "Campaign Of Terror"

Following last night's news that Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA had missed payments on several bond coupons, the company has categorically rejected the false accounts published in the media arguing that the payments were "in effect, sent to Citibank and then JPMorgan comes out with that totally false information this afternoon." Del Pino raged that Citibank deliberately delayed payments from PDVSA as part of a "campaign of terror" against the company and Venezuelan President Maduro is looking into legal action against JPMorgan over their report.

As we detailed overnight, PDVSA in October swapped $2.8 billion in bonds due in 2017 for new bonds maturing in 2020... but that bounce is now dead...

As Bloomberg reports, PDVSA has activated a 30-day grace period after not meeting the full coupon payments on its 2021, 2024 and 2035 bonds that were due last week. About $400 million was due on those bonds, while PDVSA did pay $135 million due on its 2026 debt last week, JPMorgan's Javier Zorrilla writes, citing information from the paying agent on the bonds.

"We still believe PDVSA will make these payments during the grace period," Zorrilla wrote in the report.

Urban Outfitters Rally Has Gone Too Far

As one of the S&P 500's top performers this year, Urban Outfitters has gotten ahead of itself.

Trump's Art of the Deal With China

Investors will want to know what President-elect Trump sees as a winning negotiating strategy with China.

Outside the Box: How to make money from marijuana without ever touching a plant

From funds to private equity to fertilizer stocks, the fast-growing cannabis industry is providing outsized opportunities.

Trump's silence on Nazi salute says a lot about him and elected Republicans

There has been only a tepid response to the white-nationalist movement, further encouraging its adherents, writes Chris Edelson.

Metals Stocks: Gold edges up as U.S. dollar, stock-market rally take a breather

Gold prices edge higher, trying for back-to-back gains as strength in the U.S. dollar and the stock market softened, allowing the metal to reclaim some investor interest.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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