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18Nov2016 Market Update: Wall Street Fractionally Lower, Oil Rig Count Up By 19, Gold Remains At Decision Point And The US Dollar Resting Above 101

Written by Gary

US markets are trading fractionally lower on low, but choppy volume. Crude prices traded mostly unchanged as investors waited to see if some OPEC ministers and Russia plan to reduce oil output. Short-term indicators are neutral, with market conditions up but under very high stress.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 0.47%, while the IPC is leading the S&P 500 lower. They are down 1.64% and 0.13% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 77%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 61%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 58%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

+28.37

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
70%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 61%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 61%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

23.48

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 81.16
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,706

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street slips; indexes still near record highs

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were lower in early afternoon trading on Friday as health stocks weighed and investors cashed in after the post-election rally, but the three major indexes continued to hover near record levels.

Volkswagen to cut 30,000 jobs

WOLFSBURG, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen and its labor unions agreed to cut 30,000 jobs at the core VW brand in exchange for a commitment to avoid forced redundancies in Germany until 2025, a compromise which leaves the carmaker's profitability still lagging rivals.

Can Trump make coal great again? At least some companies think so

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Most of the U.S. coal industry doubts Donald Trump can fulfill his promise to make the ailing industry great again in a country awash in dirt-cheap natural gas, a competing fuel.

JPMorgan has clutch of CEO understudies, people guessing on winner

NEW YORK (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co is once again facing questions about who will succeed its larger-than-life chief executive after Jamie Dimon was courted by the incoming U.S. president for the role of Treasury secretary.

Pacific rim leaders debate future of trade after Trump win

LIMA (Reuters) - Leaders of Pacific rim nations gathered in Peru on Friday seeking to salvage hopes for regional trade as prospects of a Donald Trump presidency in the United States sounded a possible death knell for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact.

China files appeal in U.S. anti-dumping case: WTO

GENEVA (Reuters) - China has filed an appeal against a ruling by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in a dispute over methodologies used by the United States to calculate anti-dumping tariffs targeting Chinese imports, a WTO statement said.

Dollar index set for biggest two-week rise in 20 months

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose to its highest level since April 2003 against a basket of currencies on Friday and was on track for its largest two-week increase since March 2015, as traders piled bets on a massive dose of fiscal stimulus under a Trump U.S. presidency.

Fantasy sports arch rivals DraftKings, FanDuel to merge

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - After tussling for years to win customers, the two biggest U.S. companies in fantasy sports, DraftKings and FanDuel, said on Friday they are teaming up in a merger that will cut down on legal bills and advertising spending.

Novartis backs off from 2016 date for testing Google autofocus lens

ZURICH (Reuters) - Novartis has abandoned a 2016 goal to start testing its autofocus contact lens on people, though it said the groundbreaking product it is making with internet giant Google is "progressing steadily."

The Importance Of Being Electoral

Submitted by Symfonie Capital's Michael Sonenshine via ValueWalk.com,

Electoral colleges vs popular vote explained...

What??? Hillary Clinton had a majority but still lost? It may seem unbelievable and unfair, but really....it's as fair as it's been for more than 200 years.

Electoral College 2016

A Visit to Electoral Land

For those of you who need a quick US civics lesson I'll give you the long story short. In the US Electoral system, voters don't choose the President and Vice President directly. Instead, they vote for Electors who gather in each state (the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December) to cast their ballots for President and Vice President.

Each State is assigned a number of Electors equal to that State's number of Congressional representatives plus two, being the number of Senators. Presently there are 538 Electors nationwide. The number change every 10 years as the US Census measures the national population and demographic.
In the early days of the US electors were not chosen by popular vote. In most states the Electors were chosen by the state legislatures. Clearly this meant there could a wide gap between who the people wanted for President who was actually.

Over time this all changed and by 1870 all states had gone to a where the Electors are actually chosen by the people so that in practice, the Electors are really proxies for the people. What makes the Electoral college system unique is that instead of simply counting the nationwide ...

WTI Slides After Biggest Rig Count Spike In 16 Months

The US oil rig count surged by 19 to 471 last week - the biggest weekly rise since July 2015 back to 9-month highs. This is the 22nd weekly rise in the last 24 weeks and is occurring as US crude production is beginning to rise once again.



*U.S. OIL RIG COUNT UP 19 TO 471 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHI US

*U.S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 1 TO 116 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHI US

Tracking lagged WTI prices still...

And US production is on the rise...

WTI prices slipped on the print...

China Warns It Is Ready To Slow Yuan Plunge On Capital Outflow Fears

It was just one year ago when the biggest worry for the market - which culminated with a near 10% S&P correction in in early 2016 - was the daily plunge in the Yuan driven by the surging dollar, which in turn prompted China to engage in an unprecedented reserve liquidation (in which it sold both government bonds and equities), leading to a daily selloff in risky assets on days when the Yuan was fixed lower.

Fast forward a year later, when the US Dollar has blown through last year's highs and is now at levels not seen since 2003, the Yuan is trading at record lows, just shy of 7.00, and yet stocks stubbornly ignore the one catalyst that led to so much headache for the bulls one year ago.

In his daily note, RBC's cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott points out that while the market may be oblivious, what is taking place in China is something to be concerned about:

ONE IMPORTANT TACTICAL MACRO POINT WITH REGARDS TO THE NEAR-TERM DIRECTION OF USTs / GLOBAL LONG-END: The yuan 'slow bleed' devaluation by the PBoC versus the USD seen since the start of October has without question been tied to at least some of the weakness in the US long-end, as the central bank sells USTs to try and mitigate the depreciation of the yuan against the SDR basket—see here:

One notable distinction from last year is that while bond yields would slide on days when the PBOC intervened to stabilize the currency by selling TSYs, this time around the selling of both assets is taking place concurrently - as shown in the chart above - which may suggest that C ...

US Dollar Index Probably Due for a Slight Pullback Next Week (Video)

By EconMatters

We delve into the recent 10-Day move in the US Dollar Index, and look at the major currency pairs in this video. The Oil and commodity related currencies may outperform against the US Dollar next week on optimism regarding an OPEC deal getting done. Expect a largely range bound market in an overall light holiday trading week.

EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter |

Volkswagen's New Margin Target Underwhelms

A long-awaited "pact for the future" with unions leaves the embattled German auto maker stuck in a low gear.

Trump Trade Does Little For Italian Banks' Big Problems

Political risk and capital raising mean a crucial two weeks for Italy.

Strong Dollar Means Weak Chinese Airlines

The Trump trade of strong dollar and higher bond yields should bring immediate pain to Chinese airlines. Yet share prices aren't showing it.

November 2016 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Declines But Remains In Expansion

Of the three regional manufacturing surveys released for November, all are in expansion..

This is Goldman's top trade for 2017

Goldman Sachs has proclaimed going long the dollar as its top trade for 2017, a decision that might revive unpleasant memories for some of the bank's clients.Stop me if you've heard this one before.

What an Attorney-General Sessions would mean for marijuana

America's growing acceptance of marijuana may be reversed if Sen. Jeff Sessions is confirmed as attorney general, industry experts said Friday.

How I became a cyborg and joined an underground medical movement

MarketWatch sent me to Pittsburgh to become a cyborg. I came back with a story about how health care could drive the next phase of integration between technology and the human body.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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