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16Nov2016 Market Update: US Dollar At New 14 Year High, WTI Crude Very Volatile, Short-Term Indicators Bullish, But A Downturn Is A Possibility

Written by Gary

Wall Street is sea-sawing sideways after opening down. Afternoon trading remains in the red (SPY -0.3%) on diminishing volume after a seven-day rally. U.S. manufacturing output increased for a second straight month, crude prices edged higher in volatile trading and gold remains testing support.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 1.53%, while the IPC is leading the S&P 500 lower. They are down 0.48% and 0.32% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 73%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 63%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 57%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

+29.65

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
67%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 60%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 51%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

22.38

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 80.04
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,746

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Dow, S&P drop as financials' rally ebbs, tech boosts Nasdaq

(Reuters) - The S&P and Dow were lower in late morning trading on Wednesday as financial stocks dropped after a seven-day rally since Donald Trump's surprise election win, while a recovery in technology shares boosted the Nasdaq.

U.S. manufacturing sector stabilizing; producer prices tame

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing output increased for a second straight month in October amid gains in the production of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, suggesting that the battered factory sector was slowly recovering.

Citigroup CFO says cut in U.S. tax rate could bring $4 billion charge

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If newly elected U.S. officials were to reduce federal corporate taxes by 20 percent, Citigroup Inc could have to take a $4 billion charge to profits to reflect lower values for its deferred tax assets, Citi's chief financial officer said on Wednesday.

U.S. panel says China state firms should be banned from buying U.S. companies

WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) - A U.S. congressional commission charged with monitoring security and trade links between the United States and China has recommended that CFIUS, the body that vets acquisitions from foreign firms, be required to block purchases from Chinese state-owned companies.

A post-Trump SEC could shake up current policy

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It will be a new day at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after President-elect Donald Trump installs his choice to run the agency.

Janus' Gross says Trump will be one-termer, in failure for populism

NEW YORK (Reuters) - President-elect Donald Trump will last no more than four years in the White House, a period when corporations and Wall Street will retain the upper hand over the struggling workers who helped elect him in a populist wave, bond manager Bill Gross of Janus Capital Group Inc said on Wednesday.

After Trump victory, Obama and Merkel stress benefits of EU-U.S. trade deal

BERLIN (Reuters) - German and U.S. employers, workers, consumers and farmers would "without doubt" benefit from a free trade deal being negotiated between the European Union and the United States, U.S. President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.

Oil edge up in volatile trade on U.S. crude build, Russian OPEC support

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher in volatile trading as the market weighed Russia's comments about a possible meeting with Saudi Arabia on possible output cuts against a bigger-than-expected U.S. crude storage build.

Exclusive: VW seeks cost-cutting deal by Friday, devil is in the detail

BERLIN (Reuters) - Volkswagen is pushing for a cost-cutting deal with workers at its core brand by Friday to help fund investment in electric and self-drive cars, but accounts of discussions in just one area show how difficult it is.

DoubleLine's Gundlach Warns Trump Has No Growth "Magic Wand"

Having nailed the upturn in US Treasury yields, DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach is now considerably less exuberant on Trumponomics. Speaking on his first webcast post-election, Reuters reports that Gundlach warned that a reversal of support for Donald Trump could take hold as expectations are dashed that the newly president-elect can quickly spur economic and job growth, echoing Goldman's dysphoria.

Gundlach, who oversees more than $106 billion at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, said Trump "does not have a magic wand" to rapidly improve the economy.

He said federal programs take time to implement, rising mortgage rates and monthly payments are not positive for the "psyche of the middle class and broadly", and supporters of defeated Hillary Clinton are not in a mood to spend money.

"Maybe liquor sales will go up," Gundlach said on the regular investor webcast. "The Trump win is not positive for consumer spending."

Gundlach also said that in the short-term, "It's way late to be selling bonds and buying stocks. Probably should be doing the opposite."

Gundlach, who voted for Trump and had predicted in January that Trump woul ...

India Bans Cash, Now Gold?

Via The Daily Bell
India Bans Cash, Now Gold?

India gold import ban rumoured ... The Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association has warned members of a potential gold import ban ... The association told I ...

Mortgage Applications Crash 30% As Borrowing Rates Surge

Dear Janet...

In the last few months, as The Fed has jawboned a rate hike into markets, mortgage applications in America have collapsed 30% to 10-month lows - plunging over 9% in the last week as mortgage rates approach 4.00%.

We suspect the divergent surge in homebuilders is overdone...

Trump's Biotech Rally Based on False Hopes

There have been a lot of big, somewhat dubious assumptions behind the rise in stocks since the election. But a big move higher in biotech shares isn't likely to last.

European Banks Look Likely to Feel Stressed in U.S.

The Federal Reserve has given a first look at European banks' U.S. finances and it's not pretty.

In Trump's China, Industrial Subsidies Loom Large

The president-elect has pilloried China for taking unfair advantages on trade. A key issue may be China's substantial subsidies to business.

Capitol Report: Around-the-clock press pool for Trump outdated, ex-Clinton spokesman says

The press covering the president is making a big stink about Donald Trump going out to dinner Tuesday night without telling them. Yet a former Democratic press secretary doubts that a 24/7 media pool is necessary anymore.

MarketWatch First Take: Investors hope Snapchat will unlock IPO market for tech unicorns

News that Snap Inc., the parent company of the fast-growing smartphone messaging company may go public next year has given investors hope that 2017 will be the year that many unicorn tech companies go public.

London Markets: FTSE 100 ends lower as home builders lose ground

U.K. stocks are down Wednesday, with property stocks among those struggling.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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