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16Nov2016 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Taking A Breather, Major Indexes Down, WTI Crude Trading In The Mid $45 Handle, Gold Remains Depressed At The 1226 Level

Written by Gary

U.S. futures pointed to a modestly lower open today (SPY -0.3%) after the Dow racked up its seventh consecutive advance yesterday and gains left the Spooz within a half percent of a record closing high. The US dollar remained at an 11-month high melting towards a record level not seen in 14 years and U.S. bond yields continued to move upward.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

Looking at the last three columns, the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. stock futures slip as post-election rally slows

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Wednesday, a day after the Dow ended higher for the seventh day in a row following Donald Trump's election win.

A post-Trump SEC could shake up current policy

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It will be a new day at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after President-elect Donald Trump installs his choice to run the agency.

OPEC pushes for consensus on oil cut, gaps narrowing: sources

LONDON/DOHA (Reuters) - OPEC officials are working to nail down details of their plan to limit oil supply and gaps over some sticking points are narrowing, OPEC sources said, a sign of progress in finalizing the exporter group's first such deal since 2008.

Janus' Gross says Trump will be one-termer, in failure for populism

NEW YORK (Reuters) - President-elect Donald Trump will last no more than four years in the White House, a period when corporations and Wall Street will retain the upper hand over the struggling workers who helped elect him in a populist wave, bond manager Bill Gross of Janus Capital Group Inc said on Wednesday.

Fed's Kashkari unveils plan to tackle 'too big to fail' banks and funds

(Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari unveiled a plan on Wednesday to prevent future government bailouts by forcing the largest U.S. banks to hold so much capital that they would probably decide to break themselves up.

Target Corp raises profit forecast; earnings rise

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Target Corp on Wednesday reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit and raised its fiscal-year forecast after benefiting from a strong back-to-school shopping season and higher online sales.

Microsoft offers EU concessions over its $26 billion LinkedIn bid

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Microsoft has offered concessions to EU antitrust regulators over its $26 billion bid for social network LinkedIn, the European Commission said on Wednesday, as the U.S. software company seeks to allay concerns over its largest ever deal.

Only a surprise will halt December Fed rate hike: Bullard

LONDON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will hike U.S. interest rates in December barring any major shocks, policymaker James Bullard said on Wednesday, adding that a single rate increase may be enough to move monetary policy to a "neutral setting".

The US Dollar Index Spikes To 13-Year Highs

With offshore yuan collapsing near 6.90 - record lows - the USD Index has surged this morning, breaking above Dec 2015's 100.51 level to trade at its highest since April 2003...

USD Index is up 8 days straight - the biggest surge since May 2015

Comparing the surge in the USD Index to Yuan's weakness suggests plenty of room for the Chinese to let their currency tumble further...

At what point does this turmoil ripple back to US equities?

Why All Eyes Are Suddenly Back On The Bank Of Japan

As a result of the ongoing bond rout, an interesting dynamic has emerged post the recent sell-off. With 10 year Japanese yields edging back above zero intra-day yesterday and again this morning (currently 0.027%) for the first time since September 21st the market is now watching the BOJ's every move, and specifically whether the Japanese central bank will defend the zero level, as it declared it would at its especially if the global yield sell-off gathers pace over the coming weeks and months.

Asa reminder, on September 21, the BOJ surprised the world when it announced its latest monetary policy iteration dubbed "QQE with Yield Curve Control", according to which the BOJ would buy JGBs such that 10-year yield remain at the current level of around zero percent. Ironically, at the time - when yields were far lower - the BOJ was implicitly threatening it would taper purchases to prevent yields from going too low. It is now, however, facing the opposite problem as suddenly global yields are soaring following the Trump presidency.

Why the keen focus on what Kuroda will do next? Because as DB's Jim Reid explains, "it would be a strange decision to abandon the new policy so soon after announcing it so assuming global yields remain elevated they may be forced to buy more JGBs than they thought when the new scheme was announced."

But where the BOJ's reaction gets more interesting is what it means internationally: if the BoJ sticks to defending zero in a world where the US is likely to increase fiscal spending then you could make an argument that there is full blown helicopter mone ...

Peak Gold Globally - "Bullish For Gold"

Gold mine production is peaking globally and this is "bullish for gold" according to a slowly emerging group in the gold industry. It is great to see the reality of peak gold production slowly be acknowledged in the mainstream as it is an important fundamental factor in the market which has been continuously ignored.

As reported by Bloomberg in 'Decade of Gold Mine Declines Poised to Spur Deals, Prices' today:

Gold's dwindling pipeline of new mines is poised to usher in a decade-long output slump, spurring prices and delivering a new impetus for dealmaking and industry consolidation, according to Goldcorp Inc., the third-largest gold producer.

Mine supply may fall about a third in the 10 years to 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations based on forecasts from BMO Capital Markets and Randgold Resources Ltd. The number of newly discovered primary gold deposits fell to three in 2014, from a peak of 37 in 1987, according to Melbourne-based industry adviser MinEx Consulting ...

In Trump's China, Industrial Subsidies Loom Large

The president-elect has pilloried China for taking unfair advantages on trade. A key issue may be China's substantial subsidies to business.

Four Midsize Banks With Room to Run Under Trump

The postelection bank rally is starting to look tired, but there is upside left for a select few lenders.

Investors' Prognosis for Teva Seems Overly Bleak

A rough year in generic-drug industry offers investors opportunity.

Economic Report: Wholesale inflation flat in October, PPI shows

Inflation at the U.S. wholesale level is low, but it's no longer falling.

Currencies: Dollar index hits 13-year high as postelection rally continues

Has the strong move up for the dollar following the election of Donald Trump gone too far?

Dick's Sporting Goods aims to corner a diminished golf market

Dick's Sporting Goods says it sees a chance to grab market share in the golf industry even as brands like Nike pull back.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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