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11Nov2016 Market Update: Afternoon Session Sideways, Choppy And Mixed As Gold Is Sliding To New Lows, Many Investors Moving To Safer Positions Over The Weekend

Written by Gary

Wall Street trades sideways in a mixed session (SPY -0.3% Vs $DJI +0.1%) the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan came in at 91.6 Vs. the smaller rise 87.5 expected. Gold down -3.5%, the US dollar up +0.2% and WTI crude down -3.0%. Indicators remain moderately bullish.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

Looking at the last three columns, the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 71%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 46%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 55%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-1.53

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)

69%

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 57%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 58%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

21.17

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.59
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,643

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Post-election rally halts as energy, health stocks drag

(Reuters) - A rally sparked by Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election that powered the Dow to a record high sputtered on Friday as energy and healthcare stocks came under pressure.

Limited repeal of Dodd-Frank seen under Trump: WSJ

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Trump administration is eyeing a more limited repeal of the 2010 Dodd Frank law, despite the Republican president-elect's campaign promise for a full repeal of the financial overhaul, the Wall Street Journal said on Friday, citing unnamed sources.

After Trump win, critic Buffett sees strong stocks, trade hurdles

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett defended the stock market's strength and raised doubts about President-elect Donald Trump's trade agenda in a CNN interview broadcast on Friday, just days after the U.S. election.

Case 'quite strong' for gradual rate rises, Fed monitoring markets: Fischer

SANTIAGO (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth prospects appear strong enough for the Federal Reserve to proceed with gradual interest rate rises but the central bank is monitoring an increase in long-term U.S. government borrowing costs, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said on Friday.

Facebook to stop ethnicity-based targeting for some ads

(Reuters) - Facebook Inc said on Friday it would no longer allow certain advertisers to exclude racial or ethnic groups when placing ads on its service, following criticism that the practice was discriminatory.

Twitter outperforms on ads for BuzzFeed's election livestream

(Reuters) - Twitter said it was able to deliver more viewers than promised to advertisers on an election night livestream, good news for the microblogging site as it tries to ward off growing competition for ad dollars from Snapchat and Instagram.

Two major Russian banks say hit by cyber attacks

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Two of Russia's largest banks, Sberbank and Alfa Bank, say they have been hit by cyber attacks in recent days.

Alibaba posts record Singles' Day sales, but growth slows

SHENZHEN, China (Reuters) - Alibaba Group Holding Ltd Singles' Day festival posted a record 120.7 billion yuan ($17.73 billion) worth of sales on Friday, though the gala shopping day saw growth slow as Chinese shoppers searched for deeper discounts and lower pricetags.

Oil prices tumble 3 percent after OPEC data adds to glut worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices tumbled more than 3 percent on Friday after OPEC said October output reached another record, casting doubt on whether its plan to limit production is achievable or enough to ease persisting oversupply in the market.

Traders Breathe Greatest "Sigh Of Relief" Ever Following Election - What Happens Next?

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

Stock market volatility expectations saw the biggest drop on record following the election.

In the buildup to the presidential election, we queried whether "Investors Were Over-Prepared For Election Volatility?". The reason behind that observation was that near-term (e.g., 9-Day) volatility expectations, via the VXST, had jumped to the 3rd highest level ever relative to the 1-Month VIX. This was despite just moderate stock declines at the time. It was obvious that they were nervous about something, i.e., the election, other than mere price declines. But had they gone overboard with their volatility bets?

We looked back at similar historical extremes and came to a somewhat surprising discovery. As we stated in that November 1 post:

Now, normally our inclination upon seeing a sentiment reading at an extreme would be to fade it. After all, the crowd is notoriously wrong at extremes. However, the funny thing about this VXST/VIX indicator (and much of the volatility trade in general) is that the extremes are often warranted, at least in the short-term.

And:

That is, more often than not, a spike to an extreme in the VXST/VIX ratio initially led to short-term weakness, prior to a rebound.

This short-term weakness played out again as stocks would continue to sell off for another 3 days before bouncing. Furthermore, on election night, some equity futures actually went limit down before recovering prior t ...

US Crude Production Surged As Oil Rig Count Rose To 9-Month Highs

US crude production surged at the fastest pace in months last week, seemingly beginning to engage on the lagged up-turn in the US oil rig count.

For the 21st week of the last 23, US oil rig count rose (+2 to 452) to 9-month highs.

Crude is unimpressed as Bill O'Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, notes oil's two main market drivers are "Trumpenomics--dollar bullish and the fears that there will be no deal or the deal that comes is going to be so meaningless."

"Das Ende Der Welt" - Germany's Spiegel Expects Meteor Trump To Destroy The World

In August, TIME magazine unleashed their "Meltdown" cover, forever cursing Hillary Clinton to lose...

Three months later, as President-Elect Trump visits Washington and receives calls from world leaders, Germany's Der Spiegel magazine makes it clear just what the European establishment thinks of The Donald's future...

On the bright side, judging the utter disaster any and all media has been in predicting outcomes, we might be headed for a renaissance.. as opposed to armageddon.

Global Markets: Talking 'bout a Fiscal Revolution

Donald Trump's U.S. election victory has shattered assumptions in global markets. The potential change from monetary to fiscal stimulus and from free trade to reversing globalization upends nearly every belief held by investors.

iPhone Connection Brings a Big Toll for Qorvo

The chip maker's gross margins are expected to stay under pressure for a while.

Trump and China's Currency: A Dangerous Relationship for Markets

President-elect Trump's attitude toward China could have a huge impact on how Beijing manages the slow weakening of the yuan.

NASA Completes James Webb Space Telescope

For over 20 years, NASA - together with the Canadian and European space agencies - has been working toward a giant space telescope that will replace the Hubble Space Telescope. That telescope is called the James Webb Space Telescope, and on Nov. 2, NASA administrator Charles Bolden announced that construction on the telescope is complete. This is a monster telescope that will launch us into the next frontier of astronomy.

Weekend Sip: Cream liqueur is no longer just for grandmothers

On the heels of the popular RumChata comes Magnum Cream Liqueur.

What President-elect Trump means for every U.S. industry

Trump has pledged to roll back regulations in some key areas of the economy.

Mark Hulbert: Donald Trump has built a wall to keep stock bulls in the market

The wall of worry is exactly the kind of wall that bull markets like to climb, writes Mark Hulbert.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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