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10Nov2016 Market Update: DOW Up 250 Points, Crude Slides Back To The 44 Handle, The US Dollar Recovers, And Gold Volatile

Written by Gary

US stock indexes are up (SPY +0.5%) after dipping into the red early in the morning session. The DOW is climbing three times faster than the Spooze, while crude prices are taking a 1% dip. The US dollar is fluctuation in wide swings and gold is still trending down, albeit, slowly.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.68%, while the Bovespa is leading the IPC lower. They are down 3.31% and 2.73% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 71%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 43%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 52%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +0.74
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
72%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 54%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 56%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

20.85

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 78.98
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors

10.643

Weekly jobless claims fell 11,000 to 254,000 last week. That came in lower than the estimate for 260,000. The prior week was unchanged at 265,000.

Macy's reported an adjusted 3Q profit of $0.17 per share, missing the estimate for $0.41. Revenue of $5.63 billion matched expectations.

Looking at the last three columns, the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Nasdaq loses ground as tech weighs; banks lift S&P, Dow

(Reuters) - The Nasdaq lost ground sharply on Thursday, dragged down by a slide in technology stocks, as investors poured money into sectors that may benefit from Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election.

Trump team contacted JPMorgan's Dimon for Treasury role

(Reuters) - A senior person on President-elect Donald Trump's transition team contacted JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon to see if he would be interested in being U.S. Treasury secretary, a person familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

U.S. jobless claims drop more than expected

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, underscoring the robustness of the labor market.

Bets on Trump loosening purse strings spark global reflation trades

LONDON (Reuters) - From construction companies in Spain to copper traders in London's financial district, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election is being felt around the world as investors bet on a lasting rise in global inflation.

Tech stocks drop as Wall Street focuses on Trump stimulus

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Shares of Amazon.com Inc , Alphabet Inc and other technology companies sank on Thursday as Wall Street sold them to pay for infrastructure names that could benefit from potential economic stimulus spending by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

VW bets on Golf update to bolster brand revival

WOLFSBURG, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen launched a technology-packed updated version of its top-selling Golf hatchback on Thursday to underpin efforts to revive its core brand.

Honda plans North American production shifts to make more SUVs

MARYSVILLE (Reuters) - Honda Motor Co is shifting around its North American vehicle production mix and may raise imports from Japan to squeeze out more SUVs as it struggles to keep up with strong U.S. demand for larger models, a factor which has prompted the automaker to trim its annual sales forecast.

U.S. election outcome leaves Fed on track, could end gridlock: Bullard

ST. LOUIS (Reuters) - The Republican sweep of the White House and Congress could break the current gridlock over national policy in a potential boon to the U.S. economy, St. Louis Federal Reserve bank president James Bullard said on Thursday.

Activist Ackman calls Chipotle relationship 'extremely constructive'

(Reuters) - Billionaire investor William Ackman on Thursday said he has had an "extremely constructive relationship" with Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc since buying a large stake in the beleaguered burrito seller.

The First "Trump Thirty" Auction: Deplorable

If yesterday's 10Y auction - the first under president-elect Donald Trump - was "deplorable", then today's was not much better. The auction priced at a high yield of 2.902%, tailing the When Issued 2.889% by 1.3 bps, one of the biggest tails in recent history.

Furthermore, just like yesterday, the Bid to Cover collapsed, sliding from 2.439 in October to 2.107 despite the far higher yield, which was effectively matched with the BTC in February 2016, and before it the only lower one was in August of 2011 when the US was downgraded by S&P. The internals were just as ugly with Indirect Bidders tumbling from 65.4% to only 54.5%, the lowest since August of 2015. Directs took down 12.5% of the auction, leaving 33.1% to Dealers, roughly in line with average.

In summary: if yesterday's 10Y and today's 30Y are indicative of how "easy", or rather difficult it will be to sell debt for the Trump administration, the market may want to significantly reign in its expectations for a $5 trillion incremental boost to the US debt, which at this rate will only happen if the Fed is out there scooping it up in yet another QE operation.

The bond vigilantes are finally stirring and all it took was president Donald Trump.

Caption Contest: Orange Is The New Black

President Obama and President-elect Trump in the Oval Office, meeting each other in person for the very first time...

Awkward!

Obama's "Excellent" Conversation With Trump Is Over: "If You Succeed, The Country Succeeds"

Probably the most awkward meeting ever is now over as President Obama says that he had an "excellent conversation" with President-Elect Trump.

Pres. Obama: "I just had the opportunity to have an excellent conversation with President-elect Trump." https://t.co/tglFdQLsv9

— ABC News (@ABC) November 10, 2016

The meeting which Trump had scheduled for 10 minutes, lasted an hour-and-a-half and concluded with Obama telling reporters that "if Trump succeeds, the country succeeds."


TRUMP: LOOK FORWARD TO WORKING WITH OBAMA IN TRANSITION

OBAMA W/TRUMP: NO. 1 PRIORITY TO HAVE GOOD TRANSITION

TRUMP W/OBAMA: DISCUSSED MANY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS

TRUMP TO OBAMA: 'A GREAT HONOR BEING WITH YOU'

OBAMA TO TRUMP: WANT TO DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO HELP YOU

OBAMA: 'VERY ENCOURAGED' BY TRUMP'S FOCUS ON ISSUES

Obama's team at the White House pic.twitter.com/H2l387pgKT

— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) November 10, 2016

"He's a very good man," is @ realDonaldTrump's only reply to shouts of questions from

Farage Slams "Loathsome Creature" Obama, Tells Trump "Schmooze PM May, But Don't Touch Her"

Outspoken Brexiteer Nigel Farage offered to the "responsible adult" in the room when British PM Theresa May and US President-Elect Trump meet. Keen for Britain and the USA to keep up its special relationship, The Sun reports Farage said he would be there to ensure Trump did not get out of hand.

(Apologies for the low volume audio)

Speaking to James Whale on TalkRadio he was asked how he is going to make sure Trump behaves himself when he meets the Prime Minister for the first time, he replied: "I want him to make us his priority so I'm now going to become a diplomat.

"I'm going to say come and schmooze Theresa, but don't touch her for goodness sake.

"If it comes to it I could be there as the responsible adult to make sure everything's okay.

And he said he would give him a lesson on British etiquette so he does not try and kiss her on the lips.

But Farage was not done, as he added that Trump is much better for Britain than "loathsome creature" Barack Obama and this weekend he will be jetting off to the USA where he is hoping to meet Trump and his team to talk about how to strengthen the special relationship between our two countries. While President Obama said Britain would be at the back of the queue for a trade deal, Trump has said the opposite. Farage said:

"That Obama creature - a loathsome individual who could ...

Banks Love Trump Even If It Isn't Mutual

President-elect Donald Trump supposedly doesn't care about Wall Street. It is ironic then that the world's biggest banks are rallying on his victory.

Biotech Company Bloodied by Sales Investigation

A delayed filing by Alexion Pharmaceuticals threatens to worsen a rare disease biotech company's rough year.

Russia May Be Odd Haven in Trump Era

Russia's isolated status may be a source of strength, even if emerging markets in general face challenges.

Deep Dive: How to profit from Donald Trump's victory

Start by capitalizing on fear and buy gold, says one chief investment officer.

Market Extra: Trump stock-market rally signals new era of 'yuuge' government spending

Investors are betting Donald Trump and Republican allies in Congress will jack up spending and cut taxes, expanding deficits and adding trillions of dollars to the national debt.

What President-elect Trump means for companies, by sector

Trump has pledged to roll back regulations in some key areas of the economy.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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