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07Nov2016 Market Update: SP 500 Record Loss Broken, Gold Down, US Indexes Up Two Percentage Points, Indicators Bullish As Long As Clinton Is Elected

Written by Gary

Afternoon session hasn't changed much since the opening bell. Indexes are up sharply (SPY +2.0%), gold down -1,8% and the US dollar up +1.0%. Volume remains low and this skyrocket rise is looking contrived by many analysts. Do you have what it takes to short this market?


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are sharply higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 3.50% while Mexico's IPC is up 3.40% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 2.04%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 67%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear

14%

Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 50%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -60.27
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
62%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.

52%

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

50%

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 17.83
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 76.73
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,289

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street soars on election eve as FBI gives Clinton clean chit

(Reuters) - Wall Street rallied on Monday, the eve of the U.S. presidential election, as Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton's prospects brightened after the FBI said it would not press criminal charges related to her use of a private email server.

Russia signs decree to sell 19.5 percent Rosneft stake

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia published a government decree on Monday ordering the sale of a 19.5 percent stake in state-controlled oil giant Rosneft in time for the proceeds to be received by the end of the year.

German prosecutors confirm probe targeting VW's chairman

HAMBURG (Reuters) - German prosecutors confirmed on Monday they are investigating Volkswagen AG's supervisory board chairman over suspected market manipulation, in another blow to efforts to contain fallout from the automaker's diesel emissions scandal.

Facebook partners with news outlets for Election Day live video blitz

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Facebook said on Monday it would partner with 50 broadcast stations, print and online publications for an Election Day live video blitz, as the social media company aims to build on the momentum of its popular Facebook Live video streaming service.

Dollar strengthens as election seen swinging toward Clinton

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Monday after the FBI decided that U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will not face criminal charges, which was seen as a boost to her chances of winning Tuesday's contest with Republican rival Donald Trump.

Oil mixed as election seen swinging to Clinton while OPEC doubts weigh

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices were mixed on Monday, supported by easing concerns over the economy after news that U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will not face charges over her emails, but prices were pressured by a rallying dollar and doubts over OPEC's planned production cuts.

LendingClub posts smaller-than-expected loss, shares soar

(Reuters) - Online lending platform operator LendingClub Corp reported a smaller-than-expected loss and said an investor had agreed to buy $1.3 billion in loans, sending its shares soaring as much as 20 percent.

Bashneft stops sending oil to Hungary, Slovakia via Druzhba pipeline - sources

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's Bashneft has stopped sending oil to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline, three industry sources said, in what traders believe reflects a change in marketing strategy under Bashneft's new owner Rosneft .

U.S. SEC probing banks over possible mismanagement of ADRs: WSJ

(Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether big banks have been mishandling securities in the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) market, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

Diving Into The Medical CPI: Are Your Medical Expenses Up Only 5% From Year Ago?

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

On November 1, I posted a couple of charts from Variant Perception that shows medical price inflation plus rent inflation is up nearly 9% from a year ago.

Let's review those charts, then take a look at a series of charts from the St. Louis Fed data repository on medical expenses alone.

Retail Sales vs. Medical + Rental CPI Inverted

variant-retail-2016-10-28a

Consumer Discretionary Equities vs. Medical + Rental CPI Inverted

variant-retail-2016-10-28b

The above charts from Variant Perception.

Here is a trio of charts that show medical expenses are up 5% from a year ago.

medical-cpi-2016-09a

Obama Retracts Criticism Of Comey: White House Says "Will Not Criticize Or Defend FBI Director"

Acknowledging he is repeating talking points delivered last week in response to Comey's updates to Congress about emails from Clinton's private server (which however changed drastically over the course of the subsequent seven days) White House press seceretary Josh Earnest said that the White House was "not given advance notice" of FBI Director James Comey's latest announcement on the Hillary Clinton email investigation.

"The White House was not informed in advance of Director Comey's decision to send the letter yesterday. The president believes that those decisions are best left to professionals at the Department of Justice and the FBI who have a responsibility to set aside their own personal views and focus on the facts of the investigation," Earnest said. He was speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Ann Arbor, Michigan, the first of three campaign stops President Barack Obama will make for Clinton on the eve of the election.

Earnest also said the White House was "not prepared to defend nor criticize" Comey's decision to announce on Sunday that the 650,000 new emails had been examined and did not change his decision not to charge Clinton. Which is confusing because just days after a similar statement was indeed made last week, on Wednesday, president Obama did in fact criticize Comey, when as the WSJ reported "The President again lobbies out loud in the Clinton investigation" after Obama said in a televized interview that "I do think that there is a norm that when there are investigations, we don't operate on innuendo. We don't operate on incomplete information. We don't operate on leaks. We operate based on concrete decisions that are made."

Obama has yet to make a direct stat ...

"I Just Lost All Faith In Our Deeply Corrupt Legal System And In The Rule Of Law In The US"

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

The FBI just gave Hillary Clinton the biggest gift in the history of presidential politics. Two days before the election the FBI has announced that they are ending their investigation into Hillary Clinton's mishandling of classified information. After reviewing the emails that were found on electronic devices owned by Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress telling them that "we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton." That means that there will be no indictment, and the path is now clear for Hillary Clinton to become the next president of the United States on Tuesday unless an election miracle happens.

These days it is unusual for a news story to hit me on a deeply emotional level, but this one sure did. When the FBI originally announced that they were renewing this investigation, it gave me a glimmer of hope that there may be a little bit of integrity left in our legal system.

But after yesterday's announcement I have lost all faith in our deeply corrupt system of justice. America has become a lawless nation, and the rule of law is completely dead in this country.

Yes, it is true that those of us in the general public do not know what was contained in those emails, and Director Comey says that nothing significant was found in them...

This is Our Future Regardless of the Election Result

The following post appeared 10/22/2016 at Trader Scott's Market Blog.

This election's outcome will certainly have huge ramifications. The outcome will be credited as the "reason" (excuse) for a rallying stock market or it will be blamed as the "reason" (excuse) for a declining market. While I remain extremely bearish on stocks intermediate term as the market has been in a distribution/topping process for 18 months, it is really the global government bond market which is the most frightening. So both candidates are touting their "economic" plans. But it's not going to even matter. And there are three massive reasons.

#1 - When

U.S. Election: Bonds Face Pain No Matter Who Wins

Bonds caught a pre-election boost last week. But the forces arrayed against bond investors still look impressive.

Hedge Funds Wrong-Footed on Bond Bets

Computer-driven hedge funds' big bets on bonds are coming back to bite them. The $277 billion sector, which has been bulk buying government bonds, has taken a battering as yields have spiked.

Time Is Running Out for Concordia International

Drugmaker Concordia International's poor results reflect a dire outlook.

October 2016 Conference Board Employment Index Marginally Improved.

Written by Steven Hansen

The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index - which forecasts employment for the next 6 months improved and its authors say "does not signal a significant slowdown in job growth".

The Margin: Wonder no more! Here's what you'd look like in a red pantsuit with a Hillary haircut

Hillary Clinton isn't afraid of taking awkward stabs at securing the millennial vote.

Cash at Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway hits new record with stock market near highs

The record $84 billion in cash at Berkshire Hathaway could be a sign that Warren Buffett is finding it difficult to buy new companies.

The Wall Street Journal: On election eve, Clinton says she wants to be 'president for everybody'

Hillary Clinton said Monday that her campaign is focused on maximizing turnout on the eve of Election Day as she kicks off a four-city swing through Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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