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02Nov2016 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Bears Pointing To A Lower Opening, US Dollar Collapsing, Crude Prices Sliding, Investors Continued To Worry About Fed Rate Increase

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are pointing to a lower opening (SPY -0.3%). At 9:00 AM ET, the blue-chip Dow futures lost 0.2%, S&P 500 futures traded down 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 futures down -0.03%. ADP says 147,000 people were added to private sector payrolls and Oil prices slumped to a five-week low.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

Tuesday's Key Earnings

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) +5.9% AH boosting its outlook.
Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) +0.6% on mixed results.
Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) +1.4% AH lifting full-year guidance.
Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) -1.1% AH following an earnings miss.
Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) -2% AH after naming a new CEO.
Kellogg (NYSE:K) +0.1% after a bottom line beat.
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) -5.4% planning more spending.
Pfizer (PFE) -2% dropping its cholesterol drug trials.
Shire (NASDAQ:SHPG) -2.4% on falling hemophilia medicine sales.
Square (NYSE:SQ) +3.9% AH on higher transaction revenue.
U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) -8.7% AH missing estimates, soft guidance.
Zillow (NASDAQ:Z) -1.4% AH despite topping expectations.

Looking at the last three columns, the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Stock futures flat as election race tightens

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday due to rising uncertainty over next week's presidential election and as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's meeting later in the day.

Chipmaker Broadcom to buy network gear maker Brocade for $5.5 billion

(Reuters) - Chipmaker Broadcom Ltd said on Wednesday it would buy network gear maker Brocade Communications Systems Inc for $5.5 billion in cash, to expand its fiber channel and data storage businesses.

'Suicide Squad' powers Time Warner's profit, revenue beat

(Reuters) - Time Warner Inc , the media company being bought by AT&T Inc , reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue on Wednesday, helped by the box office success of superhero movie "Suicide Squad".

U.S. private sector adds 147,000 jobs in October: ADP

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers added 147,000 jobs in October, below economists' expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

U.S. presidential election offers little cause for alarm: JPMorgan AM's Michele

TOKYO (Reuters) - The U.S. presidential election is unlikely to be a major risk for financial markets as Congress is likely to put a brake on many policies, whoever wins, the fixed income chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management said on Wednesday.

Exclusive: Oil majors join forces in climate push with renewable energy fund

LONDON (Reuters) - Top oil companies including Saudi Aramco and Shell are joining forces to create an investment fund to develop technologies to promote renewable energy, as they seek an active role in the fight against global warming, sources said.

Tesla obliged to pay $1.7 billion to Panasonic for gigafactory cells

(Reuters) - Tesla Motors Inc had an obligation to pay a total of about $1.7 billion to Japan's Panasonic Corp as of Sept. 30 for electric vehicle battery cells made at Tesla's gigafactory in Nevada, the carmaker said in a regulatory filing.

Alibaba beats revenue expectations with strong e-commerce, media growth

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese online shopping giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd reported a 55 percent rise in second-quarter revenue on Wednesday, beating analyst estimates on the back of core e-commerce sales and strong media and entertainment growth.

U.S. airlines expect busier travel this Thanksgiving

(Reuters) - More travelers will fly on U.S. airlines around the Thanksgiving holiday this year than last, a trade group said on Wednesday.

ADP Employment Report Sinks To Weakest Since April 2013

Following last month's disappointing drop in ADP jobs (then confirmed by payrolls), October's ADP employment report printed 147k (less than the expected 165k) - the weakest since April 2013. A major upward revision (from 154k to 202k) for September. Construction (as spending collapses) and education jobs declined notably as the overall trend of job gains continues to weaken.

The trend continues to weaken...

As a reminder, The Fed's own labor market indicator is now in contraction YoY...

Full ADP Breakdown:

br /
     ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 147,000 Jobs in Octoberbr /

Citi: "A Clinton Presidency Will Be Marked By Near-Continuous Investigations, Impeachment Risk"

Citi's chief political analyst, Tina Fordham has had a busy month.

At the start of October - when Trump's victory odds were in the gutter and a Clinton presidency had been priced in - in a hotly debated statement, she suggested that the establishment may be approaching the US presidential completely incorrectly: "this is an unusual juncture but we keep looking at it through the same kinds of lenses. What if it's all wrong because society, technology, opinion polling methods, and everything else don't capture marginalized voters in the way they might once have?"

According to Fordham, the US presidential race felt more like an election in a developing nation where public distrust in government is high and conspiracy theories are rife. Markets seem unaware how much that low trust raises the risk of an anti-establishment vote. Fordham has focused on the Gallup World Poll on public health, which analyzes two decades' worth of health records of Trump supporters. The numbers show a correlation between the increase in the number of people going through difficult times - as measured by suicide rates, depression, mental illness and drug addiction - and the rise in Trump's popularity, Fordham said.

"This is the kind of thing that investors just don't normally run into, but it provides another useful way to think about things because income inequality is necessary but not sufficient," she said. "There is something more subtle going on about public expectations and exhaustion and a sense of corruption, elite abuse of power, and lack of control."

Her conclusion was troubling for Clinton fans: "I'm getting this Brexit-y feeling and I know other investors are as well," she said. "The thinking is: I didn't expect Brexit, so I b ...

Crispin Odey Sees 80% Crash In UK Stocks With Recession, Inflation "Inevitable"

It has not been a good year for Crispin Odey, who as we reported one month ago, essentially bet it all on a "violent unwind" of the QE bubble. While we commiserate, so far Odey's bet has not panned out and as Bloomberg reported, his main fund's AUM has been cut nearly in half so far in 2016, down a whopping 43% in 2016. Still, Odey has not lost hope, and in the modern version of "after him, the flood", the hedge fund manager predicts that the UK stock market could plunge 80%, as a result of the collapse in earnings, should multiples normalize, one the "guaranteed" recession strikes.

From his latest letter to investors:

These times are getting interesting. The FTSE 100 share index is now up 30% over five years, whilst earnings have fallen by 80%. On an earnings yield of 1.6%, the stock market could fall by 80% and, provided profits did not fall, would be on a 13x P/E multiple. The Bank of England is proud that they have engineered such a pleasant result but there is now increasing evidence that this is unsustainable.

On the back of the uncertainty for overseas investors in UK PLC following on from the Brexit result, the current account deficit is ballooning and the budget deficit is following. Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has responded by flooding the money markets with more cash, QE, and in the process supporting the government 10yr bond at a current yield of 1.2%. However, as sterling falls against all its trading partners' currencies, it is mechanically ensuring that inflation rises up through ...

Trump, Hillary Tied In Latest ABC Poll; Trump Seen As "More Honest" For The First Time

The latest ABC / Washington Post poll shows a dead heat in the 2016 presidential race with just 6 days left until election day. The tie comes despite a massive plunge in Hillary's "trustworthiness" proving that her supporters are blindly loyal and/or ABC's polling data is simply wrong. That said, ABC points out that Clinton leads among those who say they've already voted by a margin of 54-41%...though we suspect a lot of that 54% would like to have their vote back after the latest FBI revelations.

On the particulars, the latest poll was fully conducted after the latest FBI revelations and included an 8-point sampling gap in favor of democrats.

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 28-31, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,182 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

ABC

ABC also points out that, for the first time of this election cycle, voters see Trump as more "honest and trustworthy" than Hillary by an 8-point margin. Hillary's overall trustworthiness metric has dropped 10 points since August wi ...

In Tata's Boardroom Battle, TCS Has Most to Lose

For investors monitoring Tata's drama, the most important piece to watch is Tata Consultancy Services.

A Trust-Me Story at Software Maker PTC

Software maker PTC's fiscal fourth-quarter results didn't ease concerns surrounding its business-model transition.

Valeant Gets Some Breathing Room

Finally, some positive news for Valeant Pharmaceuticals investors.

October 2016 ADP Job Growth Is 147,000 - Under Expectations

Written by Steven Hansen

ADP reported non-farm private jobs growth at 147,000. The year-over-year rate of growth was marginally down from last month's upwardly revised numbers.

August 2016 Leading Index Review: Most Indicators Trending Down.

Written by Steven Hansen

This post is a review of all major leading indicators follows - and no leading index is particularily strong.

Historic World Series Game 7 has a ticket price for the record books

There is a price on baseball history. Right now, it's about $19,500 each for two cozy seats scored behind the visiting Chicago Cubs dugout for a winner-takes-all faceoff with the Indians in Cleveland on Wednesday night.

Outside the Box: Make E-Verify mandatory when hiring, and that will help stop illegal immigration

The only employers who would be genuinely inconvenienced by E-Verify are those who want to be able to keep hiring illegal immigrants while claiming not to know they're illegal.

Kate Spade says it's winning the battle against discounts

In the fight for full-price customers, Kate Spade & Co. says it's winning, and the news was enough to send its shares up as much as 9% early Wednesday.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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