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01Nov2016 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street To Open Higher, Crude Prices At One Month Low, Investors Looking To Fed Meeting And Forthcoming Economic Data

Written by Gary

U.S. stock index futures are fractionally higher this morning (SPY +0.2%), helped by upbeat manufacturing data from China and as investors awaited the outcome of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting. Oil prices struggled near the one-month lows (WTI $47.11 +0.6%) amid speculation weekly supply data will show U.S. crude stockpiles rose for the first time in three weeks.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed. The FTSE 100 is higher by 0.08%, while the CAC 40 is leading the DAX lower. They are down 0.22% and 0.14% respectively.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Stock futures up on upbeat Chinese data; Fed meet eyed

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher on Tuesday, helped by upbeat manufacturing data from China and as investors awaited the outcome of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting.

Pfizer profit just misses; company scraps cholesterol drug

(Reuters) - Pfizer Inc , the largest U.S. drugmaker, reported a quarterly adjusted profit that just missed analysts' estimates, and the company shaved 4 cents off its 2016 earnings forecast after scrapping development of a cholesterol-lowering treatment.

Newest weapon in U.S. hunt for insider traders paying off

NEW YORK (Reuters) - When plumber Gary Pusey pleaded guilty in May to insider trading, it was a victory not just for New York prosecutors but for a little-known squad inside the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that uses data analysis to spot unusual trading patterns.

Thomson Reuters to cut 2,000 jobs, take fourth-quarter charge

(Reuters) - Thomson Reuters Corp said on Tuesday it would cut about 2,000 jobs worldwide, about 4 percent of its workforce, and take a fourth-quarter charge of $200 million to $250 million to streamline its business.

Fed to hold rates steady, put December hike firmly in view

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but set the stage for a hike in December amid signs the economy is picking up steam.

Shell's earnings beat Exxon as oil majors adapt to low prices

LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Dutch/Shell and BP on Tuesday joined peers in reporting higher than expected earnings by making further deep cuts in spending to cope with an oil price downturn now in its third year.

Oil prices rise from one-month lows after OPEC approves strategy

TOKYO (Reuters) - Oil prices rose from one-month lows in Asian trading on Tuesday after OPEC agreed on a long-term strategy that was seen as an indication the cartel was reaching a consensus on managing production.

Airbnb tells China users personal data to be stored locally

BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. short-term rental company Airbnb Inc has told Chinese users that it will store their personal data locally as foreign tech companies operating in China respond to increasing regulatory pressure.

U.S. stocks not moved by October's marquee deals

(Reuters) - The record dealmaking volume for October did not create a ripple effect lifting U.S. stocks as it has in the past - partly because the mergers, albeit large, were few and far between, bankers and analysts said.

Reuters Laying Off 2,000 To "Streamline Business"

In a moment of self-referential irony, moments ago Reuters reported that Thomson Reuters said on Tuesday it would eliminate about 2,000 jobs worldwide and take a fourth-quarter charge of $200 million to $250 million to "streamline its business" - translation: legacy media operations continue to lose money.

The restructuring across 39 countries and 150 locations would mainly affect the Financial & Risk business and the Enterprise, Technology & Operations Group, the news and information company said. It employs about 48,000 people globally, a spokesman said.

"We are taking these actions now because we see a real opportunity to break down internal silos, position ourselves closer to customers and become more agile," Chief Executive Officer Jim Smith said.

Thomson Reuters is the parent of Reuters News. There will be no decline in headcount in the Reuters newsroom, according to a memo to employees. The company earlier reported lower third-quarter net earnings. Net income was $286 million or 36 cents per share, compared with $293 million or 36 cents per share, a year earlier. On a non-GAAP basis, earnings were 54 cents per share.

Reuters also lowered its 2016 forecast for underlying operating profit margin to between 16 percent to 17 percent, from 18.4 to 19.4 percent.

Revenue was up 1 percent at $2.74 billion before currency effects and was flat when they were factored in. The company reiterated its forecast of 2 percent to 3 percent revenue growth for the year.

In the Financial & Risk segment, which provides news and analytics to financial services companies, sales outpaced cancellations for the 10th straight quarter. Overall, unit revenue was flat at $1.52 billion.

Trump Takes Lead In ABC/WaPo Poll That Gave Hillary 13 Point Advantage Just One Week Earlier

The first fully post-FBI shocker ABC/WaPo poll is out and it is a shocker: in a poll that saw Hillary lead by a dominating 13 points as recently as one week ago, moments ago ABC/WaPo/Langer Research announced that Trump has not only taken the lead from Hillary, but this is the first time he has done so since May.

As a reminder, this is the same poll that as we reported over the weekend, effectively confirmed to "poll tampering" which saw Hillary's lead collapse from 12 points to just 2 several days ago.

While vote preferences have held essentially steady, Hillary is now a slim point behind Donald Trump, a first since May, in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Forty-six percent of likely voters support Trump in the latest results, with 45 percent for Clinton. Taking it to the decimal for illustrative purposes, a mere .7 of a percentage point divides them. Third-party candidate Gary Johnson has 3 percent, a new low; Jill Stein, 2 percent. The reason: according to ABC, "strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI's email investigation."

What is most stunning is that the Democrat oversampling in the poll has now grown to a whopping 10 points!

According to the poll, self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans among likely voters by 10 points, 38 to 28 percent. There are three reasons why the race is so close despite the major overrepresentation of democrats:



One, this narrows to a 5-point gap, 48-43 percent, including independents who lean toward one party or the other.

Frontrunning: November 1



There is a bubble in articles about China's bubbles: Asset Bubbles Threaten China's Economy (WSJ)

Hillary Clinton's Wall Street Fundraising Benefited From Loophole In Federal Anti-Corruption Rule (IBT)

Clinton and Trump Prepare for Possibility of Election Overtime (BBG)

Trump Leads Clinton by 1 Point in New Poll as Enthusiasm Declines (ABC)

Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia (NYT)

Democrats Say Pledge of Speedy Email Review Falls Short (WSJ)

In Ohio, a spelling error could cost you your vote (Reuters)

Donald Trump Used Legally Dubious Method to Avoid Paying Taxes (NYT)

Trump Amps Up Criticism of Clinton Amid Probe (WSJ)

Why Bank Stocks Have The Most to Lose in the U.S. Election (BBG)

Election Offers Stark Choices on Supr ...

John Podesta's Best Friend At The DOJ Will Be In Charge Of The DOJ's Probe Into Huma Abedin Emails

Now that the FBI has obtained the needed warrant to start poring over the 650,000 or so emails uncovered in Anthony Weiner's notebook, among which thousands of emails sent from Huma Abedin using Hillary Clinton's personal server, moments ago the US Justice Department announced it is also joining the probe, and as AP reported moments ago, vowed to dedicate all needed resources to quickly review the over half a million emails in the Clinton case.

BREAKING: Justice Dept. says it'll dedicate all needed resources to quickly review emails in Clinton case.

— The Associated Press (@AP) October 31, 2016

In the letter to Congress, the DOJ writes that it "will continue to work closely with the FBI and together, dedicate all necessary resources and take appropriate steps as expeditiously as possible," assistant attorney General Peter J. Kadzik writes in letters to House and Senate lawmakers.

#BREAKING Senior DOJ official sends letter to lawmakers responding to request for more information about email review.#8days pic.twitter.com/PCgT2ODkQd

— Just the Facts (@JTF_News) October 31, 2016

So far so good, even if one wonders just how active the DOJ will be in a case that has shown an unprecedented schism between the politically influenced Department of Justice and the FBI.

And yet, something felt odd about this.

Kadzik... Kadzik... where have we heard that ...

Big Mergers May Face a Higher Bar in Washington

The White House is looking at the impact on jobs and pay when approving corporate deals, including planned mergers, such as General Electric-Baker Hughes and AT&T-Time Warner.

Why Everything Isn't All Right With China's Economy

Good news on manufacturing data will only hasten China's need to close the credit taps.

Panasonic: A Safer Bet on Tesla Than Tesla Itself

A plunge in Panasonic's shares offers a safer entry point for exposure to electric cars.

September 2016 CoreLogic Home Prices Year-over-Year Growth Rate Now Improved to 6.3%.

CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices in the USA are up 6.3 % year-over-year year-over-year (reported up 1.1 % month-over-month). Last month's 6.2 % year-over-year gain was revised downward to 5.6 %. CoreLogic HPI is used in the Federal Reserves's Flow of Funds to calculate the values of residential real estate.

Market Snapshot: Stock futures trim gains ahead of manufacturing data

U.S. stock futures trimmed some of the modest gains but still pointed to a positive open Tuesday, after strong Chinese manufacturing data instilled more confidence in global growth and sent global stock markets higher.

Angie's List shares surge on news company has put itself up for sale

Online marketplace for home-related services has hired advisers to help review its strategic options.

Need to Know: This trigger for a stock rally is hiding in plain sight

November is starting off with a hint of green on screens, but it's cold comfort after three down months in a row for the S&P 500. What could stock bulls possibly have to latch onto now? Try fundamentals.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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