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21Oct2016 Market Update: Late Afternoon Market Recovery Unlikely As A Rollover Appears To Be Taking Place, WTI Crude Remains In Mid 50 Handle As US Dollar Soars

Written by Gary

Wall Street remains fractionally in the red (SPY -0.1%), US dollar hits seven-month high limiting any crude price increase after Russia reiterated its commitment to contribute to a global output freeze. Dow falls (-0.3%) as GE results (-0.1%) outweigh Microsoft's record EPS (+4.8%).


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 1.05%, while the S&P 500 is leading the IPC lower. They are down 0.17% and 0.10% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 68%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 37%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 60%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-6.51

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
69%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 62%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 61%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 17.47
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.42
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,565

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Health, energy stocks hit Wall St, Microsoft lifts Nasdaq

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow came off session lows in early afternoon on Friday, but continued to be weighed down by energy and healthcare stocks, while a record-setting rally in Microsoft kept the Nasdaq in positive territory.

AT&T in advanced talks to buy Time Warner: sources

(Reuters) - AT&T Inc is in advanced discussions to acquire Time Warner Inc , sources said on Friday, a deal which would give the telecom company control of cable channel HBO, the CNN news network, film studio Warner Bros and other media assets.

N.Y. Fed lowers U.S. third and fourth quarter GDP outlook

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve on Friday downgraded its forecasts on U.S. economic growth in the second half of 2016 following data on regional business activities in October and a steep drop in housing starts last month.

SunEdison creditors launch lawsuit against lenders in bankruptcy battle

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A group of SunEdison Inc lenders took control of the renewable energy developer after inking a "sweetheart deal" to try to save their investment as the company approached bankruptcy, hurting other creditors, according to a lawsuit filed late Thursday in U.S. bankruptcy court.

U.S. auto sales in October expected to drop 7 percent: J.D Power-LMC

DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. auto sales are forecast to drop more than 7 percent in October from the same period in 2015, the sixth monthly decline so far this year, as automakers offer steep discounts and adjust production to manage inventories, J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said on Monday.

GE beats on profit but cuts revenue target on oil, gas weakness

NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co beat analyst profit forecasts in the third quarter, but revenue growth remained sluggish, prompting the company to scale back expectations for full-year revenue and profit on Friday, sending shares sharply lower.

McDonald's U.S. sales revive amid stiff competition

(Reuters) - McDonald's Corp's turnaround gained momentum in the latest quarter despite intense rivalry in the United States, helped by its all-day breakfast, the "McPick 2 for $2 promotion" and a healthier chicken McNugget, the company said on Friday.

BAT offers to buy U.S. tobacco firm Reynolds in $47 billion deal

LONDON (Reuters) - British American Tobacco has offered to buy out U.S. cigarette maker Reynolds American Inc in a $47 billion takeover that would create the world's biggest listed tobacco company with brands including Newport, Lucky Strike and Pall Mall.

U.S. mall investors set to lose billions as retail gloom deepens

NEW YORK (Reuters/IFR) - The dramatic shift to online shopping that has crushed U.S. department stores in recent years now threatens the investors who a decade ago funded the vast expanse of brick and mortar emporiums that many Americans no longer visit.

WikiLeaks Reveals "Heavily Armed Police" Gathering Outside The Ecuadorian Embassy In London

As pressure from the Obama administration mounts on the Ecuadorian government and Assange to halt the flow of Hillary's emails, Wikileaks just posted the following tweet revealing heavily armed "police" outside of the Ecuadorian Embassy in London.

PHOTO: Heavily armed 'police' appear outside Ecuadorian Embassy in London where Julian Assange has political asylum (photo, Tuesday morning) pic.twitter.com/EOfsrmi3t2

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) October 21, 2016

The "police" presence apparently began to amass earlier this week just as Wikileaks confirmed that the Ecuadorian had agreed to cut Julian Assange's internet access after a little political pressure from John Kerry...

We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) October 17, 2016

BREAKING: Multiple US sources tell us John Kerry asked Ecuador to stop Assange from publishing Clinton docs during FARC peace negotiations.

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) October 18, 2016

...and as an allegedly bogus plot, with links to the Clinton campaign, was revealed that attempted to link Julian Assange to a pedophilia ring.

Here is the "headquarters" of the fr ...

DNS Cyber Attack Returns As Northeast Internet Traffic Grinds To A Crawl For Second Time

What was supposed to be a temporary internet outage, after an attack "of unknown origin" on DNS service provide DYN took down much of the internet in the North East, appears to have returned, and moments ago DYN announced that it was once again experiencing the same "attack" as this morning.


DDOS ATTACK MAY ALSO AFFECT MANAGED DNS ADVANCED SERVICES: DYN

DYN SAYS DDOS ATTACK MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE DELAYS IN MONITORING

Even the White House is involved now:

Which means Putin will be blamed in 5... 4.... 3....

WH aware of cyber interruptions on @twitter et al services. @DHSgov taking close look at "that malicious activity," says @PressSec.

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) October 21, 2016

Ironically, the attack has made updating the Level 3 Internet outage map virtually impossible.

* * *

Early this morning, millions of panicked Americans realized they may have to be productive when suddenly their favorite social media website or news outlet was unavailable for up to an hour. As it turns out, the culprit was "an enormous cyberattack" which disrupted traffic to hundreds of websites including

"The Game Is Up" - Why Exporters Are In Double Trouble

Submitted by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

Most of the worlds largest exporters are facing declining domestic populations (0-64yr/olds) and demand. But now these exporters are also facing the prospect of declining global demand as the core population among the world's primary importers is set to peak.

The chart below shows the annual core population (0-64yr/old) change of the OECD representing America, most of Europe, and the bulk of the worlds wealthy nations (OECD members), plus China, Brazil, and Russia. This core population growth peaked in 1968 at +31 million a year and has fallen 90% to just 3 million a year as of 2016. The core population of the combined OECD+C,B,R is estimated to peak out in 2018 and by 2050, decline by <-246> million or <-9%>.

Russia Wants To Monitor "Rigged" US Presidential Elections

In what can only be described as an epic attempt to troll both Obama and Hillary, and an apparent move to embarrass the United States over Trump's claims of that the upcoming presidential election will be "rigged", Russia has asked to send monitors to US polling stations for the Nov. 8 vote, according to reports by Russian media.

However the US State Department was not amused, and promptly rebuffed the request with one state election official threatening criminal action if Russian monitors showed up, according to state-controlled Izvestia daily and broadcaster RT. State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner called the Russian effort a "PR stunt."

WH says Russia's intent unclear in seeking to monitor US election. @PressSec doesn't dispute @StateDept that Russian request a P.R. stunt.

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) October 21, 2016

Cited by USA Today, a spokeswoman for Louisiana Secretary of State Tom Schedler, who received a request to allow Russian monitors, called it a "propaganda ploy." "We've allowed observers from overseas in the past from other countries, never from Russia," Meg Casper said. She added that the FBI and Department of Homeland Security also "told us not to do this."

But if Russia is not only intimately involved in the election, but is also rigging it, why not give it the opportunity to watch their action in real time. Surely, if they can manipulate the outcome, they can also observe it from a distance.

Sarcasm aside, Trump has complained for weeks about potential election f ...

BAT-Reynolds: A Modest Premium For Modest Cost Savings

Given the limited scope for cost-cutting, BAT can't afford to pay much more than a 20% premium for Reynolds American

Presidential Tail Risks Tame Trading

Investors think they know how the election will turn out, but the risk of being wrong is keeping them from doing much of anything.

This Chinese Auto Company May Get Caught for Speeding

Geely Automobile's supercharged growth has amped up investors' expectations. But the market is primed for a slowdown.

Slide Show: Take a look at this reinvented French contemporary estate for sale in Beverly Hills

This double gated French contemporary estate has been completely reinvented in Beverly Hills, Calif. The 5-bedroom, 7 1/2-bath home, designed by architect Richard Landry, is on the market in the Los Angeles area for $35 million

In One Chart: The children of billionaires aren't as fortunate as they seem

Reasons to pity the poor billionaires.

The Tell: The stock market is caught deep in 'no man's land'

With no true bottom in site to settle those with a bearish view and insufficient signs from the latest crop of quarterly earnings reports to arouse the animal spirits that might help equities clamber definitively higher, investors are in limbo.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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