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21Oct2016 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Pointing To A Lower Opening Despite So So Corporate Earnings, Markets May Recover Be Late Afternoon

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are down (SPY -0.2%), crude prices up fractionally WTI +0.2%, DOW down -0.4%, and the SP 500 down -0.4%. Corporate EPS are mixed this morning, but generally on the good side. Indicators are again neutral, with tilt to the bearish side.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed. The FTSE 100 is higher by 0.22%, while the CAC 40 is leading the DAX lower. They are down 0.18% and 0.03% respectively.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Dollar hits seven-month high, stocks set for weekly rise

LONDON (Reuters) - Global stocks were set for their first weekly gain in four weeks on Friday and the dollar rose to its highest since March, as the euro came under pressure after the European Central Bank shot down talk of a tapering of its asset purchases.

McDonald's sales beat estimates as turnaround gathers pace

(Reuters) - McDonald's Corp's turnaround gained momentum in the latest quarter as sales growth at established restaurants beat analysts' estimates, sending the company's shares up almost 4 percent in premarket trading on Friday.

BAT offers to buy U.S. tobacco firm Reynolds in $47 billion deal

LONDON (Reuters) - British American Tobacco has offered to buy U.S. tobacco company Reynolds American Inc in a $47 billion deal that would bring together Newport, Kent and Pall Mall cigarettes in the world's biggest listed tobacco company.

GE beats on profit but cuts revenue target on oil, gas weakness

NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co beat analyst profit forecasts in the third quarter, but revenue growth remained sluggish, prompting the company to lower its full-year revenue growth target and narrow its profit forecast on Friday and sending shares lower.

Stock futures dip as investors assess earnings

(Reuters) - The S&P and Dow futures were slightly lower on Friday as GE trimmed its full-year forecast, while Microsoft's premarket rally limited losses on Nasdaq futures.

U.S. mall investors set to lose billions as retail gloom deepens

NEW YORK (Reuters/IFR) - The dramatic shift to online shopping that has crushed U.S. department stores in recent years now threatens the investors who a decade ago funded the vast expanse of brick and mortar emporiums that many Americans no longer visit.

No partner in sight, Twitter faces tough solo choices

SAN FRANCISCO/BOSTON (Reuters) - The apparent lack of interest in Twitter Inc by potential suitors may force the social media company to consider a route anathema to aspiring tech startups: a major restructuring and cutting some its nearly 4,000 employees.

San Francisco lawsuit, NYC law highlight global risks for Airbnb

SAN FRANCISCO/BERLIN (Reuters) - Airbnb, the online lodging service that investors now believe is worth $30 billion, faces a reckoning.

ZTO spurns huge China valuations for benefits of U.S. listing

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Chinese logistics company ZTO Express is turning up the chance of a much more lucrative share listing at home in favor of an overseas IPO that lets its founder retain control and its investors cash out more easily.

Something's Changed - 7 Days & Counting...

For the last 7 days, something odd has happened at the end of the day... stocks haven't ripped higher into the close.

While no confirmation has been received, we are hearing increasing chatter on desks about probes over index ETF rebalancing shenanigans which many have argued have been responsible for the ubiquitous end of day ramps in US equity markets over the last few years. Note that VIX has collapsed during this time but stocks have gone nowhere...

The 7 day streak is very unusual...

The last time this happened was in June/July 2015 (which coincided with turmoil in China)...

And the Yuan is tumbling once again...

Just like it did in Aug 2015...

Obamacare Premiums Up 30% In TX, MS, KS; 50% In IL, AZ, PA; 93% In NM: When Does The Death Spiral Blow Up?

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Obamacare premiums are skyrocketing out of sight. A jump of a mere 30% looks like a good deal compared to jumps of over 50% in six states, and 93% in New Mexico.

Congratulations are in order for those living in a handful of states whose premiums only rose 20%.

The Wall Street Journal reports Rate Increases for Health Plans Pose Serious Test for Obama's Signature Law.

Finalized rates for big health insurance plans around the country show the magnitude of the challenge facing the Obama administration as it seeks to stabilize the insurance market under the Affordable Care Act in its remaining weeks in office.

"The situation is serious," said Alissa Fox, senior vice president of the Office of Policy and Representation for the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association. "The reason the premiums are where they are is that the people we are covering have serious conditions and they're using a lot of medical services because of their chronic illnesses. That's clear. And there's not enough young, healthy people to balance out those costs."

In Minnesota, for example, Blue Cross Blue Shield is pulling its preferred provider organization plans from the state's online exchange, MNSure, and the narrow network product has been approved for an average rate increase of 55%.

Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton told local reporters that the law is "become unaffordable for m ...

US Mint Silver Eagle Demand - 'Returned with a Vengeance'

As gold and silver step back slightly to sit and wait for US economic data to be released later today we bring you news of the US Mint Silver Eagle demand that has 'Returned with a Vengeance' as reported by silverseek.com.

Last month it seemed some of the heat had come out of the US Mint Silver market when sales had failed to maintain the momentum seen in the first five months of the year when between 5.9m and 4 million coins had been sold each month.

But things have dramatically picked up. Sales of US Mint Silver Eagles in the month of October have reached 2,925,000, 75% higher than those seen in September when just 1,675,000 were sold, reports silverseek.com. Buyers have already bought more than the previous record month of June when they snapped up some 2,837,000. Given October's buying patterns commentators now expect sales to touch 4,000,000 in total should the pace continue.

Silver Eagle sales this year lift the tally higher than all but five of the years in the last thirty.

Frontrunning: October 21



Trump, Clinton trade barbed jokes for charity (Reuters)

Islamic State retaliates as Iraqi forces push on Mosul (Reuters)

Hedge Fund Managers Struggle to Master Their Miserable New World (BBG)

Woebegone Stock Pickers Vow: We Shall Return! (WSJ)

Madonna pledges oral sex for Clinton voters (The Hill)

AT&T Discussed Idea of Takeover in Time Warner Meetings (BBG)

U.S. has few good options for response to Philippines' Duterte (Reuters)

San Francisco lawsuit, NYC law highlight global risks for Airbnb (Reuters)

Duterte didn't really mean 'separation' from U.S., Philippine officials say (Reuters)

China's property market shows signs of cooling (China Daily)

A $47 Billion Bid to Create the World's Largest Tobacco Company (BBG)

Vatican and China in final push for elusive deal o ...

This Chinese Auto Company May Get Caught for Speeding

Geely Automobile's supercharged growth has amped up investors' expectations. But the market is primed for a slowdown.

Investors Charging Into American Express Should Think Again

American Express beat estimates for third-quarter earnings but still faces strong competitive pressure.

Why Battered Bank Stocks Are Blocking The ECB

When banks trade at very low valuations that hurts the supply of credit to the economy.

Rail Week Ending 15 October 2016 Paints A Negative Economic View

Week 41 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The weekly data at first glance was better than last week.

Trump, Clinton go for laughs at fundraising dinner, but one draws boos

Just a day after their third and final presidential debate, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump again shared a stage Thursday night as guests of honor at the Al Smith Memorial Dinner in New York. The result was decidedly awkward.

The Tell: Stocks are caught deep in 'no man's land'

With no true bottom in site to settle those with a bearish view and insufficient signs from the latest crop of quarterly earnings reports to arouse the animal spirits that might help equities clamber definitively higher, investors are in limbo.

Brett Arends's ROI: How did Hillary Clinton 'lose' $6 billion at the State Department?

Alas, the audit only says that State Department contracts worth about $6 billion were missing some paperwork (and that is out of a total budget over the same period of $200 billion).

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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