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19Oct2016 Market Update: US Markets Move Higher On Good Corporate Earning Reports, Crude Prices Higher On Unexpected US Inventory Drawdown, Investors Watching Carefully For Fed Rate Increase Signs

Written by Gary

Wall Street riding higher (SPY +0.4%) as today's session moves into the late afternoon. WTI crude trading higher (WTI +2.76%), US dollar flat and at resistance (+0.06%) and gold trading sideways (1270). Indicators neutral with a bullish edge.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.59% while the S&P 500 gains 0.39%. The Bovespa is off 0.47%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 70%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 40%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 60% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -19.91 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
69% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 62% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 62% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 17.49 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 78.76 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,568

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall St. up on oil, upbeat earnings; Intel limits gains

(Reuters) - Wall Street was on track for its second straight day of gains on Wednesday as oil prices boosted energy stocks and financials got a lift after Morgan Stanley rounded off a strong quarter for big U.S. banks.

Morgan Stanley profit jumps on bond-trading comeback

(Reuters) - Morgan Stanley reported a better-than-expected profit on Wednesday, boosted by a surge in bond trading that helped all Wall Street banks last quarter.

U.S. single-family housing starts surge; multi-family segment falters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Groundbreaking on U.S. single-family housing projects surged in September, pointing to sustained housing market strength even as a drop in the construction of multi-family units pushed overall home building activity to a 1-1/2-year low.

Atlanta Fed raises U.S. third-quarter GDP growth view to 2.0 percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 2.0 percent annualized pace in the third quarter following the latest data on government expenditures, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed on Wednesday.

Airbnb touts policy proposals as new regulations loom

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Airbnb promoted a series of policy proposals on Wednesday that the home rental company said would address concerns raised by officials in New York and San Francisco over how the company operates.

U.S. says T-Mobile to pay $48 million settlement over disclosures

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - T-Mobile US Inc has agreed to pay $48 million to resolve a federal probe into whether it adequately disclosed speed and data restrictions for its "unlimited" data plan subscribers, U.S. regulators said on Wednesday.

FCA recalling 310,800 vehicles including Jeep Wrangler SUVs

DETROIT (Reuters) - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is recalling about 310,800 vehicles in two separate recalls involving Jeep Wrangler SUVs, Ram heavy duty pickup trucks and Dodge Charger sedans, the company said on Wednesday.

Facebook adds food ordering feature

(Reuters) - Facebook Inc said users in the United States would be able to order food through the Facebook pages of restaurants starting on Wednesday as part of its efforts to connect users and businesses.

At crisis-hit Samsung, nerves jangle as annual review looms

SEOUL (Reuters) - The next few weeks are traditionally a tense time at Samsung Electronics Co as executives wait to see if their work over the year is rewarded with promotion at the South Korean firm's annual performance review.

Cass Freight Index Takes Another Dive Killing August's "False Hope"

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via,

Heading into the Christmas shopping season, the Cass Freight Index shows shipments sank 0.4% for the month and are down 3.1% from shipments a year ago.

It's difficult to make a case for a great holiday sales season or robust third quarter GDP, based not only on shipments, but also on many other factors discussed below.

After offering a glimmer of 'less bad' hope in August (only down 1.1% YoY and up 0.4% sequentially), the Cass Freight Index shipments data in September disappointed, providing hindsight that August only gave us 'false hope.' September data is once again signaling that overall shipment volumes (and pricing) continued to be weak in most modes, with increased levels of volatility as all levels of the supply chain (manufacturing, wholesale, retail) continue to try and work down inventory levels.

Cass Freight Shipment Index


Shipments are lower than in 2015, 2014, and 2013.

Cass Freight Expenditures Index

Emails Show Hillary Struggled To Draft Bribery & Corruption Reforms - "She May Be So Tainted She's Really Vulnerable"

The latest WikiLeaks dump reveals yet another bombshell from the outspoken, an likely soon to be unemployed, Neera Tanden. The email chain comes from March of this year and begins when Neera distributes a memo on proposals for reform policies relative to bribery and corruption of public officials. That said, apparently the folks within the Hillary campaign were aware that this was a very dicey topic for their chosen candidate as even Tanden admits "she may be so tainted she's really vulnerable."


Meanwhile, Hillary advisor Jake Sullivan provided his thoughts that he really liked the following proposal on strengthening bribery laws...

"Strengthen bribery laws to ensure that politicians don' change legislation for political donations."

...but subsequently admits that it might be problematic given Hillary's history.

"The second idea is a favorite of mine, as you know, but REALLY dicey territory for HRC, right?"

"There Will Be Panic"

Submitted by Mac Slavo via,

Legendary investor Doug Casey has a keen eye for capital markets, wealth preservation strategy and the many manipulations being used by financial elites to strip the wealth of entire nations. One year before global financial markets collapsed he warned that an economic and geo-political storm was coming. Now, nearly a decade on, he says that things are about to get a whole lot worse:

Where are we right now?

In 2007 I used the analogy that we entered a gigantic financial hurricane and we went through the leading edge of it in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. We've been in the eye of the storm since then... and it's a huge hurricane with a big eye... they've papered it over with trillion of currency units... not just the U.S... China, Europe, Japan, all the little countries... they've all done the same thing, foolishly.

Now, as we speak, we're moving into the trailing edge and it's going to be much worse, much longer lasting, and much different than the unpleasantness that we experienced back in 2008... so hold on to your hat.

In his latest interview with SGT Report Casey discusses what you'll never get in a 30-second mainstream soundbite, including the upcoming Presidential election, suppression of alternative news media, the coming crash, hyperinflation, and pr ...

"Something More Might Be In The Air" - What Has Gotten The "Smart Money" So Spooked?

In the latest Fund Managers' Survey release by Bank of America this week, there was an overarching agreement on what Wall Street's "smart money" believes will be the biggest drive of equity prices in the next 6 months. The answer, as shown in the chart below, is Treasury Bond Yields...

... and not just any bond yields, but - as per the Fed model which has reigned supreme in recent years - rising bond yields, which suggests that as a result of a rising risk premium, stock prices would slide And in a time when even central bankers are increasingly agitating for a "gentle" increase in long-term rates, we can see why the so-called smart money is concerned that upcoming moves in yields could disrupt the stock market's bull market. After all, as we reported cautioned last week, even Ray Dalio warned that a yield rise as small as 1% could lead to trillions in MTM losses.

Curiously, even one of the biggest deflationistas, the man who coined the "Ice Age" thesis, SocGen's Albert Edwards is concerned. As he points out in his latest piece which asks "Has the bull market in government bonds finally ended", "as government bond yields snap sharply higher, many investors are concerned that the 35-year bond bull market is finally over. All investors, bond and equity alike, have benefited from this stunningly positive investment backdrop. This long bull market has often seen occasional cyclical rises in yields, but some feel this time it's different. A change in the wind is being felt as gove ...

Morgan Stanley's 'High-Class' Problem

Morgan Stanley's returns are held back by high capital levels, but that is a good problem to have.

ECB: Walking the Bond-Market Tightrope

The ECB's entanglement in markets has given it a communications headache.

Cybersecurity: Peace of Mind Isn't Priceless

Fortinet's recent warning is the latest sign that cybersecurity demand is moderating.

David Letterman's 3 lessons on retirement

What he's learned since ending a multidecade run as a popular late-night TV show host.

Capitol Report: Polls show Clinton widening lead over Trump. And no, it's not a conspiracy

How to explain Donald Trump complaining about a rigged election, blaming the media or constantly attacking Republicans instead of Hillary Clinton? The real estate magnate turned presidential nominee knows he's going to lose. And the polls make it crystal clear.

The Tell: Investors betting on a Fed rate hike will be disappointed — again

Stifel's Lindsey Piegza explains why she thinks the Federal Reserve won't act in December.

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