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14Oct2016 Market Update: Wall Street Remains Up After So-So Financial Reporting, Gold Loosing Battle With Support, Indicators Are Neutral, But Could Turn Bearish Suddenly

Written by Gary

U.S. stocks rise on bank earnings (SPY +0.4%), but face 2nd weekly loss in a row. An unexpected collapse in consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan came in at 87.9, economists anticipated a an increase to 91.9 and wholesale level rose 0.3%, missing its estimate.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 1.16% while U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.34% and Mexico's IPC is up 0.06%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 66%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 34%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 60%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-56.64

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
71%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 63%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 63%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 17.38
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.98
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors

10,523

Looking at the last three columns, the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street trims gains as focus shifts to Yellen

(Reuters) - Wall Street trimmed gains sharply on Friday as financial stocks lost steam and focus shifted to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech.

Exclusive: Carmakers forced back to bigger engines in new emissions era

PARIS (Reuters) - Tougher European car emissions tests being introduced in the wake of the Volkswagen scandal are about to bring surprising consequences: bigger engines.

Obama eases restrictions on Cuba, including limits on rum and cigars

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Americans traveling to Cuba will be allowed to bring home more of the communist-ruled island's coveted cigars and rum under new measures announced by the U.S. government on Friday to further ease trade, travel and financial restrictions that have been in place for decades.

Sales scandal costs Wells Fargo; JPMorgan and Citi please Wall Street

NEW YORK (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup trounced third-quarter estimates on Friday on a sharp rebound in trading revenues while Wells Fargo & Co barely beat expectations as a sales scandal engulfed the bank.

Accused UK 'flash crash' trader to be extradited to U.S.

LONDON (Reuters) - A London-based trader accused of contributing to the 2010 Wall Street "flash crash" by placing bogus orders to spoof the market lost his legal bid to stop extradition on Friday and will now be sent to the United States to face trial.

Exclusive: Deutsche Bank considers thousands more job cuts - source

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank's finance chief told staff representatives last month that job cuts at the bank could be double that planned, a step that could remove 10,000 further employees, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

Dozens of U.S. lawmakers request briefing on Yahoo email scanning

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A bipartisan group of 48 lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives on Friday asked the Obama administration to brief Congress "as soon as possible" about a 2015 Yahoo program to scan all of its users' incoming email at the behest of the government.

Viacom hires financial advisers to explore CBS merger

(Reuters) - Viacom Inc said on Friday that it had hired financial advisers to explore a merger with CBS Corp following a proposal by Sumner Redstone's National Amusements Inc, a majority shareholder of both companies.

German government tells lawmakers it would not take a stake in Deutsche Bank: WSJ

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Aides to German Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers last week the state would not take a stake in Deutsche Bank if it were to issue new stock, the Wall Street Journal said on Friday, citing a person who attended the briefing.

Secret FBI Report Reveals True Cause of Homegrown Terrorism

Submitted by Carey Wedler via TheAntiMedia.org,

In 2012, the FBI conducted a secret survey to determine the driving factors behind acts of homegrown terrorism. The results, recently viewed by the Intercept, reveal why extremists appear to hate the United States and the West so much they will kill innocent people to express it.

Hint: it's not because we're free.

The final report, called "Homegrown Violent Extremists: Survey Confirms Key Assessments, Reveals New Insights about Radicalization," found "anger over U.S. military operations abroad was the most commonly cited motivation for individuals involved in cases of 'homegrown' terrorism,'" the Intercept reported.

The report acknowledges that "[o]nline relationships and exposure to English-language militant propaganda and 'ideologues' like Anwar al-Awlaki," who, along with his teenage son, was killed by a drone strike in 2011, were also "key factors" in the radicalization process.

The report notes that radicalization is a "highly individualized" process and it can be difficult, if not impossible, to predict who will turn to violent extremism.

Nevertheless, as the Intercept explained, "grievances over U.S. military action ranked far above any other factor, turning up in 18 percent of all cases, with additional cases citing a 'perceived war aga ...

US Oil Rig Count Rises For 16th Straight Week To 8-Month Highs

With crude having rolled over, back to pre-inventory-data levels, hovering around $50, Baker Hughes reports the US oil rig count rose 4 to 432 - the 16th weekly rise in a row to th ehighest in 8 months.

US Oil Rig count data has risen for 16 straight weeks... to the highest in 8 months.

The rig count continues to track the lagged oil price very closely suggesting the trend of rising rig counts may be about to stop

And crude shrugs...

Charts: Bloomberg

"The Most Important WikiLeak" - How Wall Street Built The Obama Cabinet

Perhaps the most startling discovery of the WikiLeaks dumps so far didn't come from the most recent emails surrounding the various Hillary scandals, though there are many great ones, but from 2008 when John Podesta served as co-chair of President-elect Barack Obama's transition team. The email came from Michael Froman, a former Citibank executive, who single-handedly built the entire cabinet of what was supposed to be the "main street" President.

The email in question was even sent from Froman's Citibank email address (rookie!) and includes "A list of African American, Latino and Asian American candidates, broken down by Cabinet/Deputy and Under/Assistant/Deputy Assistant level, plus a list of Native American, Arab/Muslim American and Disabled American candidates."

Apparently Obama wasn't as worried about placing women in senior-level positions but Froman decided to offer up some suggestions anyway.

"While you did not ask for this, I prepared and attached a similar document on women."

Froman even went ahead and "scoped out" which people should be appointed to which cabinet positions.

"At the risk of being presumptuous, I also scoped out how the Cabinet-level appointments might be put together, probability-weighting the likelihood of appointing a diverse candidate for each position (given one view of the short list) and coming up with a straw man distribution."

1.4 Million Americans Who "Like Their Healthcare Plan" Set To Lose Them In 2017

Remember when Obama ran around the country promising Americans that if they liked their doctors and healthcare plans that they could keep their doctors and healthcare plan? If not, here is a quick refresher:

Despite those promises, according to Bloomberg, at least 1.4 mm people are set to lose their current healthcare plans in 2017 as insurers are pulling out of Obamacare exchanges all over the country. Meanwhile, the losses could mean that total Obamacare enrollees could actually decline in 2017 if enough people fail to choose new policies.

At least 1.4 million people in 32 states will lose the Obamacare plan they have now, according to state officials contacted by Bloomberg. That's largely caused by Aetna Inc., UnitedHealth Group Inc. and some state or regional insurers quitting the law's markets for individual coverage.

Sign-ups for Obamacare coverage begin next month. Fallout from the quitting insurers has emerged as the latest threat to the law, which is also a major focal point in the U.S. presidential election. While it's not clear what all the consequences of the departing insurers will be, interviews with regulators and insurance customers suggest that plans will be fewer and more expensive, and may not include the same doctors and hospitals.

It may also mean that instead of growing in 2017, Obamacare could shrink. As of March 31, the law covered 11.1 million people; an Oct. 13 S&P Global Ratings report predicted that enrollment next year will range from an 8 p ...

Banks' Trading Revival May Last

Fixed-income trading, long in decline, is rebounding at J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup. Several factors may keep it elevated for a while yet.

Bleak Times at the Mall

Sales at department stores are falling at recession rates as consumers spend online and on services.

Deutsche Bank: In Need of Friends

Qatari funds that hold a near 10% stake in Deutsche Bank are concerned about slow progress at the German lender.

Capitol Report: What Warren really is asking Obama in her latest anti-White salvo

Reliably feisty Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren may have asked President Barack Obama to effectively fire the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission — but she really is sending a message on what she wants out of the lame-duck session of Congress as well as the next four years.

The Fed: Fed's Yellen sees some possible benefits from running economy with tight labor market

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Friday there may be some benefits to running a 'high-pressure economy'

Commodities Corner: Here's how much more you could pay to heat your home this winter

Consumers can expect to pay hundreds of more dollars on winter heating bills this year with prices for natural gas and heating oil at lofty prices just as demand for the commodities head higher.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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