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13Oct2016 Market Update: US Markets In The Red, DOW Down 86 Points, US Dollar Slips After Crude Inventory Climbs Sharply, Analysts Warning Of A Bearish Market Ahead

Written by Gary

Wall Street has cut some morning loses, but remains in the red (SPY -0.6%) after Crude inventory builds sharply after decline in previous weeks. Volatility in the crude arena was interesting, but trading has returned normal. The US dollar is declining as well as gold. Indicators show a strong bearish trend in the making.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 0.03%, while the IPC is leading the S&P 500 lower. They are down 0.69% and 0.50% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 65%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 45%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 61%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-45.15

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
69%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 64%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 64%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

17.78

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.27
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors

10,509

Looking at the last three columns, the first one (Actual), is what was reported this morning. The second column (Forecast) is what analysts had forecast and the third column is the previous report. Full calendar HERE.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. jobless claims at 43-year low; import price deflation easing

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits held at a 43-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.

S&P, Dow touch three-month lows on weak China data

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial average touched three-month lows on Thursday, dragged down by weak Chinese economic data and a potential U.S. interest rate hike by the end of the year.

Trump's Scottish golf courses post more losses

LONDON (Reuters) - Donald Trump's two Scottish golf courses continued to suffer losses last year, accounts filed in Britain show, highlighting the challenge the U.S. presidential candidate has in making a return on his substantial investments there.

Old problems overshadow new era at Wells Fargo

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Tim Sloan era has begun at Wells Fargo but the old problems remain.

Deutsche Bank puts freeze on hiring: source

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank has put a freeze on hiring new staff, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday, amid investor fears that a pending U.S. fine could cripple the bank.

Google gets second extension to reply to EU charge on shopping

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Alphabet unit Google has been given about three more weeks to counter EU antitrust charges that it unfairly demotes rival shopping services in internet search results, a move which could further delay regulators' decision on the six-year-old case.

Almost 30 percent of Sky shareholders oppose James Murdoch as chairman

LONDON (Reuters) - Almost 30 percent of voting shareholders at Sky opposed the appointment of James Murdoch as chairman of the European pay TV group on Thursday, with some saying he was too closely linked to the group's largest investor, owned by his father Rupert.

Disappointing China trade data spurs fears recovery may be faltering

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's September exports fell 10 percent from a year earlier, far worse than expected, while imports unexpectedly shrank after picking up in August, suggesting signs of steadying in the world's second-largest economy may be short-lived.

Verizon to close call centers in 5 states

(Reuters) - Verizon Communications Inc plans to close call centers in five states, including its home state of New York, the No. 1 U.S. wireless company said on Thursday.

Glenn Greenwald: In The Democratic Echo Chamber, Inconvenient Truths Become Putin Plots

Authored by Glenn Greenwald, originally posted at The Intercept,

Donald Trump, for reasons I've repeatedly pointed out, is an extremist, despicable, and dangerous candidate, and his almost-certain humiliating defeat is less than a month away. So I realize there is little appetite in certain circles for critiques of any of the tawdry and sometimes fraudulent journalistic claims and tactics being deployed to further that goal. In the face of an abusive, misogynistic, bigoted, scary, lawless authoritarian, what's a little journalistic fraud or constant fearmongering about subversive Kremlin agents between friends if it helps to stop him?

But come January, Democrats will continue to be the dominant political faction in the U.S. — more so than ever — and the tactics they are now embracing will endure past the election, making them worthy of scrutiny. Those tactics now most prominently include dismissing away any facts or documents that reflect negatively on their leaders as fake, and strongly insinuating that anyone who questions or opposes those leaders is a stooge or agent of the Kremlin, tasked with a subversive and dangerously un-American mission on behalf of hostile actors in Moscow.

To see how extreme and damaging this behavior has become, let's just quickly examine two utterly false claims that Democrats over the p ...

Explain This!

The death cross of economic textbooks just got death-ier...

US economic growth expectations plumb new post-crisis lows... as initial jobless claims crash to their lowest (best) since 1973!!

Because it's not the "manufacturing" economy that's helping...

And it's not the "Services" economy either...

So... Explain that!

"Recession Fatigue"-Fatigue Strongly Suggests It Was Never Just A 'Recession'

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Four years ago, recession fatigue had set in as by then it was already several years into recovery even though it just didn't seem that way. Historical experience had been uniform in business cycle symmetry; the economy comes back with same intensity and pace by which it had been knocked down. From that expectation alone the economy of 2012 should have been roaring in every way imaginable. That view was only amplified by so much "stimulus" including two QE's, more than three years of ZIRP by then, and a completed ARRA.

Yet, there were only constant interruptions. Though they seemed to be more European or "overseas" in nature, there was the nagging feeling that "something" was off. Economists were quick to claim that anything holding back great relief was but temporary, a belief they thought would be greatly strengthened later in the year (2012) with a third (then a fourth) QE. Weakness, then, could not have been weakness, it was always something else.

From that point on the litany of excuses has been at times entertaining, while at other times downright absurd. In December 2012, for example, CNBC reported that though Christmas sales in 2011 were marginally healthy, in 2012 they weren't even close. The reasons provided at the time may have seemed plausible if only because it was guided (biased) by orthodox economic "analysis":

Wikileaks Releases Another 2,000 Podesta Emails In Part 6 Of Data Dump

Just hours after wikileaks released the 5th part of the Podesta emails dump which in turn came shortly after part 4 which together amounted to some 1,866 new email, Wikileaks has unveiled the latest, 6th part in what now is a daily event, which released another 2,000 emails, bringing the total number of emails released to over 9,000 and assuring that at least one part of the media will be busy digging through hundreds of emails more, while much of the remaining part of the media will be doing all it can to ignore the latest release and instead focusing on the latest sexual allegations against Donald Trump.

RELEASE: The Podesta Emails Part 6 (almost 2000 new emails) https://t.co/wzxeh7hZLU #HillaryClinton #PodestaEmails #PodestaEmails6 pic.twitter.com/HYdHE0DG4C

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) October 13, 2016

Some initial observations:

The Soros Hamptons invite (link):

Dear Mr. Podesta,

I am writing to follow up on my message below. Please let me know if you are available to join Mr. and Mrs. Soros one weekend at their residence in Southampton. Weekends that would work well for a visit are August 7th-10th or August 28th-31st.

* * *

"Clintons won't forget what their friends have done for them" - In November 2014, Clinton's campaign manager Robby ...

How to Get Wells Fargo Back on the Wagon

Wells Fargo's new CEO can revitalize the bank's consumer-banking business by looking beyond existing customers.

China Trade: Another Weak Signal for Global Economy

China's surprisingly dour trade figures in September imply global demand remains in a rut.

Amazon's New Tune Speaks Volumes About Google Rivalry

Amazon's new music service isn't just a play against Apple and Spotify. Google figures in.

Beer Goggles: Brooklyn Brewery takes U.S. craft beer on a world tour

Beer fans abroad are increasingly slaking their thirst for American craft beer, writes Jason Notte.

White House hopeful Evan McMullin on Donald Trump: 'I know a dictator when I see one'

Evan McMullin talks to MarketWatch on Facebook Live about Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, being a banker and a spy, why he'd repeal the estate tax, and more.

In One Chart: A tiny violin for the billionaires who can't hold on to their fortunes

The children of billionaires aren't as fortunate as they seem.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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