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06Oct2016 Pre-Market Commentary: US Markets To Open Fractionally Lower, WTI Crude Trades In The $50 Handle, Gold Tanking, Investors Seriously Concerned About Markets Financial Health

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are pointing to a lower opening (SPY -0.2%) as WTI crude climbs into the 50 dollar handle, the US dollar is marching upwards and gold is falling (1261) like a ton of, er, gold! Weekly jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 249,000. That came in lower than the estimate for 257,000.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed. The FTSE 100 is higher by 0.03%, while the DAX is leading the CAC 40 lower. They are down 0.27% and 0.27% respectively.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Futures fall as investors weigh rate-hike chances

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were lower on Thursday as improving economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggested monetary policy could be tightened by the end of the year.

Fighting fires: Samsung struggles to limit damage from smartphone recall

SEOUL (Reuters) - Heated meetings, sacrificed holidays and teams monitoring social media round-the-clock to track whether there have been any new smartphone fires: Samsung Electronics is still desperately trying to limit the damage of a record global recall announced more than a month ago.

Dollar at four-week highs vs yen before Friday jobs report

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar ground higher on Thursday, extending this week's four-week highs against the yen before a jobs report many expect to help seal the case for a rise in U.S. interest rates in December.

GE wins data contract with largest public U.S. energy utility

NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co said on Thursday it has been picked to supply software and analytics to New York state's public electrical system, the largest test so far of GE's ability to improve power efficiency and reliability with digital technology.

Wal-Mart expects flat earnings next year

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc on Thursday reiterated its earnings forecast for the current fiscal year but said profit would remain flat in fiscal 2018 due to investments in its online business.

Goldman sees U.S. auto sales entering slow lane, downgrades sector

(Reuters) - Earnings at U.S. automakers are expected to decline in the next two years as negative pricing and lower production weigh on North America results, Goldman Sachs said, downgrading the sector to "cautious" from "neutral".

Bank Hapoalim warns on profits due to U.S. tax probe

TEL AVIV (Reuters) - Bank Hapoalim , Israel's largest bank, said on Thursday it would make a further provision estimated at $70 million for settling a U.S. tax evasion investigation which could have "a significant impact" on its third-quarter results.

Citi says 'time to buy' European banks

LONDON (Reuters) - Citi analysts upgraded their recommendation on Europe's beleaguered banks to "overweight" within regional portfolios, citing signs of improvement in the credit cycle and loan growth as well as cheap relative valuations.

Deutsche may not face German penalty over Russian trades: sources

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Germany's financial watchdog has found no evidence to date that Deutsche Bank violated money laundering rules in Russia, people close to matter said on Thursday, possibly relieving one headache for the country's biggest bank.

What Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Told The New York Fed

Last week, using a presentation sent to clients several months ago, we showed Bridgewater's calculations detailing how much time central banks have left under current and expanded formats of QE, before they hit their limit. In a slide titled "Central banks will reach their limits", Ray Dalio calculated that the ECB has 68 months, or just above 5 and a half years, were it to steamroll all political opposition and monetize virtually every possible bond (and 20% of the equity market), and 48 months, or 4 years, in the case of the BOJ.

Yesterday, using largely that same presentation as a framework, Ray Dalio delievered the following speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar on Wednesday, October 5, 2016. As posted on his LinkedIn page, this is what he told the room full of what are perhaps the most important central bankers in the world today, those whose trading desk has the most important impact on US, and thus global, capital markets today.

* * *

Remarks at the 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar

It is both an honor and a very special opportunity for me to be able to address such a large and esteemed group of central bankers at such an interesting time for central bankers. I especially want to thank President Dudley and Vice President Schetzel for inviting me to forthrightly share my perspective as an investor and my unconventional template that I believe sheds some light on the ...

Frontrunning: October 6



Millions flee as Southeast U.S. braces for Hurricane Matthew (Reuters)

Hurricane Matthew Is a $15 Billion Threat Headed to Florida (BBG)

Three Risks to the Global Financial System as Debt Hits Record Levels (WSJ)

Deutsche Bank's $14 Billion Scare (BBG)

Deutsche Bank Mismarked 37 Deals Like Paschi's, Audit Says (BBG)

Monte Paschi Said to Plan Debt-Swap Deadline Before Italian Poll (BBG)

Donald Trump Often Made Donations to State Attorneys General Reviewing His Business (WSJ)

Iraq requests U.N. emergency meeting on Turkish troops in north (Reuters)

Saudi Aramco prepares to publish accounts for the first time (FT)

International observers will watch U.S. vote closely (Reuters)

Some Big U.S. Cities See Apartment ...

Leaked Memo Confirms Hillary Was Given Questions Ahead Of Interview

Yesterday, in the latest indication that few things involving Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign are left to chance, we reported that Brennan Leach, a child actor and daughter of a PA Democratic Senator, was used to ask staged questions at a recent Hillary town hall. And while there has been some unconfirmed speculation that the Democratic presidential candidate may have colluded with Lester Holt during her first presidential debate, we now have further proof that "preparation" for Hillary means being fully informed of what is about to take place well ahead of time.

According to a leaked memo obtained by the Washington Free Beacon, the Clinton campaign was sent all questions one week by the program before the interview between Clinton and Harvey on Feb. 17. The memo was sent by campaign spokeswoman Karen Finney, formerly an MSNBC host, and communications staffer Betsaida Alcantara. In it the Clinton aides wrote one week before the taping that "Steve is known to be a host who goes out of his way to make his guests feel comfortable. We coordinated closely with the show's producers on the script and format of the show."

The memo was attached to an email posted on the website DCLeaks.com. According to the Free Beacon, one of the individuals behind the website - which has been alleged of working with the Russian government - provided the website with a password to access that email and others sent to and from Clinton volunteer Beanca Nicholson, who was doing advance work for a campaign swing through Chicago that included the Harvey interview.< ...

US Futures Pressured By European Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises

For the fourth day in a row, US traders arrive at their desks with US equity futures rangebound if with a modestly heavy bias, down around 4 points as of this moment, pressured by some recent weakness in European stocks, where DB continues to post modest gains following yesterday's report that Germany is pursuing "discrete talks" over the fate of the German lender. Oil has regained earlier losses following comments by Algeria's oil minister who said that OPEC could cut 1% more than agreed upon while sterling continues to slide on growing concerns of a "hard Brexit."

As JPM observes, Asia generally traded well overnight while Eurozone stocks and US futures are now down small (they were both up small earlier). The big focus remains on the "rotation" - data continues to point to firming nominal growth (German Aug factory orders out Thurs morning were strong) and bank sentiment is improving (Citigroup was out w/an upgrade of Eurozone banks this morning). Other than these two overnight headlines, it was relatively quiet over the last 12-18 hours. The big event today will likely be the ECB minutes at 7:30amET - this text may help shed some light on the veracity of the Tues Bloomberg taper article (an "extend and taper" announcement from the ECB is looking increasingly likely although prob. not until its 12/8 meeting; Eurozone sov bonds have a bid Thurs morning as investors expect the minutes this morning to have no mention of tapering).

As has been so often the case, the Fed is back in the financial-market spotlight, with strengthening speculation that an interest rate hike is imminent pushing the dollar for an eighth day against the yen, dragging gold lower, and spurring the yield on two-year Treasuries to the most in 10 years versus German notes. Ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report, where consensus expects a 172,000 print (up from 151,000), the market-implied probability of a F ...

Shiller's Powerful Market Indicator Is Sending a False Signal About Stocks This Time

A close look at a Nobel Prize winner's valuation metric shows that the market isn't as highly valued as it appears.

Airline Price War in Europe Is Proving Cynics Right

Flights are cheap—as is talk of a more consolidated and disciplined European airline industry.

Elliott Agitates Samsung in the Right Direction

Elliott Management's call for change at Samsung Electronics pushes the company in a direction it is already heading. That should benefit shareholders.

01 October 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims: Rolling Averages Continue to Improve.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 250,000 to 260,000 (consensus 256,000), and the Department of Labor reported 249,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 256,000 (reported last week as 256,000) to 253,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

Key Words: Race is more between FUBAR and SNAFU than Trump and Clinton: Hoover scholar

Niall Ferguson: 'The choice is between SNAFU — essentially more of the same: situation normal all F'd up — or FUBAR, ... where we F it up beyond all recognition.'

Economic Report: Jobless claims drop 5,000 to 249,00

The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 249,000 at the end of September, showing an extremely low level of layoffs just a day before the government issues a key report on how many people found jobs last month.

The Tell: Investors piled into ETFs during Q3

Investors moved an astonishing $92 billion into exchange-traded funds in the third quarter, one of the highest-ever quarterly totals, as U.S. stocks climbed to new records.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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